山东省莒南县肾综合征出血热的时空动态分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 19:55

本文选题：肾综合征出血热 + 时空动态　；参考：《山东大学》2006年硕士论文

【摘要】：肾综合征出血热是一种自然疫源性疾病，在欧亚大陆许多国家流行。其中，中国HFRS的发病人数约占世界总发病数的90％以上，是严重危害我国居民健康的重要传染病。研究表明，在中国流行的HFRS病毒株主要为汉坦病毒，宿主动物以黑线姬鼠和褐家鼠为主。目前，虽已基本弄清了我国HFRS的流行特征，并开展了疫苗免疫和灭鼠等综合预防措施，但HFRS仍处于流行状态，某些地区(如山东省)还时有暴发流行，新的疫区不断出现，而且疫区类型也在发生演变。因此，有必要进一步研究HFRS的时空动态变化以及疫区类型的演变规律，以便为制定切实可行的防制措施提供理论依据。鉴于莒南县是山东省野鼠型HFRS的原发疫源地和高发病区，也是我国的HFRS监测点之一，所以在研究山东省HFRS时空动态变化以及疫区类型的演变时，莒南县具有一定的代表性。本研究利用莒南县1975年9月1日～2004年8月31日的HFRS发病资料，应用疾病空间分布概率模型、趋势面分析、疾病空间变异函数和样条函数插值等方法，研究莒南县以自然村为单位的HFRS的空间分布及其时空动态变化过程，并结合鼠情监测资料分析其疫区类型的演变。以期阐明小尺度下(以自然村为单位)HFRS的时空动态演化规律，为调整和优化山东省HFRS的综合防治策略提供科学依据。本研究结果表明： 1．1975年～2004年，莒南县累计报告HFRS病例15685例，其中，男性占67.24％，，15岁～64岁的占89.80％，农民占90.35％；此期间，莒南县HFRS的年发病水平呈周期性变化，周期约为5～7年。HFRS发病具有季节性，其中，发病高峰期在秋冬季(10月～次年1月)的为姬鼠型，在春季(3月～6月)的为家鼠型，29年间，发病的季节性经历了秋冬峰的单峰型→以秋冬峰为主的双峰型→以春峰为主的双峰型的变化过程。
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural disease that is prevalent in many countries in Eurasia.Among them, the incidence of HFRS in China accounts for more than 90% of the total incidence in the world, which is an important infectious disease that seriously endangers the health of Chinese residents.The results showed that Hantavirus was the main strain of HFRS virus in China, and the host animals were Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus.At present, although the epidemic characteristics of HFRS in our country have been basically understood, and comprehensive preventive measures such as vaccine immunization and rodent control have been carried out, HFRS is still in a state of epidemic, and some areas (such as Shandong Province) still have outbreaks from time to time, and new epidemic areas continue to appear.And the types of epidemic areas are also evolving.Therefore, it is necessary to further study the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of HFRS and the evolution of epidemic areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of feasible prevention and control measures.Junan County is the primary foci and high incidence areas of wild rat type HFRS in Shandong Province, and is also one of the monitoring points of HFRS in our country. Therefore, Junan County has a certain representativeness in studying the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of HFRS and the evolution of epidemic area types in Shandong Province.In this study, the incidence data of HFRS from September 1, 1975 to August 31, 2004 in Junan County were used, and the methods of disease spatial distribution probability model, trend surface analysis, disease spatial variation function and spline function interpolation were used.The spatial distribution and spatiotemporal dynamic changes of HFRS in Junan County were studied, and the evolution of its epidemic area was analyzed based on the monitoring data of rodent situation.The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution of HFRS in small scale (taking natural village as a unit) and to provide scientific basis for adjusting and optimizing the integrated control strategy of HFRS in Shandong Province.The results show that:1. From 1975 to 2004, 15685 cases of HFRS were reported in Junan County, of which the male accounted for 89.80 years old and the farmer 90.35.The annual incidence level of HFRS in Junan County changed periodically, and the period was about 57-7 years.The peak period of onset was in autumn and winter (October to January), and in spring (March to June), it was the family mouse type for 29 years.The seasonality of the disease has experienced the change process of the single peak type of autumn and winter peak and the double peak type of autumn and winter peak and the spring peak type.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：R512.8;R181.8

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