基于地理信息系统的我国艾滋病聚集性流行的空间分析

发布时间：2018-04-22 20:22

本文选题：艾滋病 + 聚集性　；参考：《中国卫生统计》2014年06期

【摘要】：目的分析我国艾滋病病毒流行的空间聚集性及其变化趋势。方法收集我国截至2011年底报告的艾滋病病毒感染者或艾滋病病人(HIV/AIDS)病例的分布情况,利用空间扫描统计量法和空间自相关分析方法,发现和验证HIV/AIDS聚集性流行的地区及其变迁情况。结果 1995年以来,我国HIV/AIDS病例报告数迅速上升,发现HIV/AIDS病例的地区也在不断增加。全局空间自相关分析显示,1995-2011年每年HIV/AIDS报告病例在县区水平均呈现聚集性分布且聚集性先降低后升高,截至2011年全国县区水平全局Moran's I指数为0.3778(Z=35.1845,P0.001);局部空间自相关分析和空间扫描统计量法分析的结果,提示从1995年到2003年我国艾滋病疫情从云南、新疆等地向中部地区扩散,聚集性降低,但从2005年开始,西南地区的报告疫情又占优势,聚集性再次加强。结论我国艾滋病不同流行时期具有不同的地理空间分布特征,各省艾滋病流行特点各异,进行艾滋病流行分区时应充分考虑,以合理配置资源。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the spatial aggregation and trend of HIV prevalence in China. Methods the distribution of HIV / AIDS / HIV / AIDS cases reported by the end of 2011 in China was collected, and spatial scanning statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used. To identify and verify the HIV/AIDS clustering epidemic areas and their changes. Results since 1995, the number of HIV/AIDS cases in China has increased rapidly, and the number of HIV/AIDS cases has been increasing. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the annual HIV/AIDS cases reported from 1995 to 2011 showed an aggregation distribution at the county level, and the aggregation decreased first and then increased. As of 2011, the overall Moran's I index at the county level in the whole country was 0.3778 zang 35.1845 (P 0.001) 1.The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial scanning statistical analysis indicated that from 1995 to 2003, the epidemic situation of AIDS spread from Yunnan, Xinjiang and other places to the central region. The agglomeration decreased, but since 2005, the reported epidemic situation in the southwest region has taken the lead, and the aggregation has been strengthened again. Conclusion there are different geographical distribution characteristics in different periods of HIV / AIDS epidemic in China, and the epidemic characteristics of AIDS in different provinces should be considered in order to allocate resources reasonably.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R512.91;R181.3

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