我国火灾伤害的流行病学研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 17:02

本文选题：火灾伤害 + 流行特征　；参考：《暨南大学》2005年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的:分析我国火灾伤害的流行特征及相关因素,揭示火灾伤害发生的危险因素,为预防和控制火灾伤害提供科学依据。方法:采用回顾性流行病学研究方法,收集反映我国火灾情况及社会经济、消防和卫生资源状况的相关数据进行统计分析。结果: 1.火灾发生的总体趋势:通过有序样品聚类分析,可将我国建国54年的火灾发生情况分为5个阶段:第一阶段为1950～1954年;第二阶段为1955～1963年;第三阶段为1964～1979年;第四阶段为1980～1996年;第五阶段为1997～2003年。每一阶段的火灾情况受到社会经济因素的影响。总体上我国火灾伤害的形势随着国民经济发展趋于严重。 2.火灾发生的时间分布特征:对我国火灾发生的时间进行圆形分布分析,显示火灾发生在时间上具有规律性。月分布和昼时分布上有明显的集中趋势:火灾以2月份、下午18时左右高发,特大和重大火灾事故多发生在深夜0～4:00。 3.全国和各地火灾原因:对全国火灾直接原因进行统计分析,表明火灾事故80%以上由人为因素造成,主要是用火不慎(27.91%)和电气(23.92%)原因。以各地区的火灾原因构成比进行聚类分析,将我国31个省、自治区和直辖市分为3类,各类地区的火灾原因构成与经济生产状况相关:经济较发达,生产经营较活跃的地区火灾原因以电气(31.12%)为主;地处偏远,经济和生产方式较落后的地区火灾原因以用火不慎(35.19%)为主。 4.火灾发生的地域分布特征:以各地区的4大火灾指标数据对火灾情况进行聚类分析,将我国27个省、自治区分为5类,各类地区的火灾情况与社会经济状况呈对应关系:经济越发达的地区,火灾越高发,火灾经济损失越严重;经济落后的地区,火灾发生频率和经济损失均较小,但火灾伤亡率高。 5.火灾与社会经济因素关系:联合应用Pearson相关和因子分析、逐步回归对我国火灾频数与社会经济因素的关系进行分析,显示我国火灾形势与社会经济呈正相关,回归方程为:(?)=-4055.749+0.11 1X_1+0.988X_2+0.0083X_3+18.554X_4+12.107X_5+1.907X_6即人
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the epidemic characteristics and related factors of fire injury in China, to reveal the risk factors of fire injury, and to provide scientific basis for preventing and controlling fire injury. Methods: retrospective epidemiological study was used to collect and analyze the relevant data reflecting the fire situation, social economy, fire fighting and health resources in China. Results: 1. The general trend of fire occurrence: through cluster analysis of ordered samples, the fire occurrence in 54 years of our country can be divided into five stages: the first stage is 1950- 1954, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996. The fifth stage is from 1997 to 2003. Each stage of the fire situation is affected by socio-economic factors. As a whole, the situation of fire injury in our country tends to be serious with the development of national economy. 2. The characteristics of fire time distribution: the circular distribution analysis of fire time in China shows that the fire occurs regularly in time. The monthly distribution and the daytime distribution showed an obvious trend of concentration: the fire occurred in February, about 18:00 in the afternoon, and most of the major and serious fire accidents occurred at 0: 00 in the night. 3. National and local fire causes: the direct causes of fire in China are statistically analyzed. The results show that more than 80% of fire accidents are caused by human factors, mainly caused by fire carelessness (27.91) and electrical accidents (23.92). Based on cluster analysis of fire cause composition ratio in various regions, 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China are divided into 3 categories. The fire cause composition in various regions is related to the economic production situation: the economy is relatively developed. The main causes of fire in the areas where production and operation are active are electric power 31.12m), and those in remote areas with backward economy and production mode are mainly caused by fire carelessness (35.1919). 4. The regional distribution characteristics of fire occurrence: the fire situation is analyzed by cluster analysis based on the four fire index data in each region. The 27 provinces and autonomous regions of China are divided into 5 categories. The relationship between the fire situation and the social and economic situation in various regions is as follows: the more developed the economy, the higher the fire, the more serious the economic loss of fire, the less the frequency of fire and the economic loss are in the economically backward areas. But the casualty rate is high. 5. The relationship between fire and social economic factors: by using Pearson correlation and factor analysis, the relationship between fire frequency and social economic factors in China is analyzed step by step, which shows that the fire situation in China is positively related to social economy. The regression equation is: 1 055. 749 0. 11 1X_1 0.988X_2 0.0083X_3 18.554X_4 12.107X_5 1.907X_6.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2005
【分类号】：R181.3

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