南京市高温热浪与健康风险早期预警系统试运行效果评估

发布时间：2018-05-13 11:02

本文选题：热浪 + 早期预警系统　；参考：《环境与健康杂志》2014年05期

【摘要】：目的分析和评估高温热浪与健康风险早期预警系统在南京市的试运行情况。方法分析2013年7月15日至9月30日预警模型发出的预警信号数,比较预警信号与试点医院同期门急诊、住院病例的相关性,以中暑病例评估模型的灵敏度和错误预警率。结果观察期间共发出预警信号170条,平均每日2.18条,心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病、儿童呼吸系统疾病、中暑、总健康风险各占信号总数的22.9%(39/170),17.6%(30/170),18.8%(32/170),17.6%(30/170),22.9%(39/170)。不同预警级别的儿童呼吸系统疾病门急诊和住院病例数差异均有统计学意义(P0.05),I级和II级预警的就诊数均高于0级(P0.05或P0.01);不同预警级别的呼吸系统和心脑血管疾病门急诊和住院病例差异均无统计学意义(P0.05)。各项健康风险预警与当日气象高温预警均呈正相关(rs值为0.650~0.724,P0.01)。中暑预警灵敏度为72.7%(8/11),中暑错误预警率为34.9%(22/63)。结论预警系统信号发出及时,运行状况良好,对儿童呼吸系统发病和中暑的预警准确率较高,但仍需进一步调整和完善。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze and evaluate the early warning system of high temperature heat wave and health risk in Nanjing. Methods the number of early warning signals issued by the early warning model from July 15 to September 30, 2013 was analyzed, and the correlation between the early warning signals and the outpatient and emergency cases in the pilot hospital was compared, and the sensitivity and error warning rate of the assessment model of heatstroke cases were analyzed. Results during the observation period, 170 early warning signals were issued, with an average of 2.18 per day. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, children's respiratory diseases, heat stroke, and total health risks accounted for 22.9- 39 / 170 / 17.60% of the total signals. There were statistically significant differences in the number of outpatient and emergency cases and hospitalized cases of respiratory diseases in children with different warning levels. The number of visits for early warning of grade I and II was higher than that of grade 0 (P0.05 or P0.01), and the respiratory system and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases of different warning levels were higher than those of grade 0 (P0.05) or P0.01 (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between outpatient and inpatients (P 0.05). There was a positive correlation between the health risk early warning and the meteorological high temperature warning on the same day. The sensitivity of heatstroke warning is 72.7% and the warning rate of heatstroke error is 34.9%. Conclusion the early warning system is in good condition and the warning accuracy of children's respiratory system and heatstroke is higher, but it still needs to be adjusted and perfected.
【作者单位】：江苏省疾病预防控制中心环境疾病防制所;中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所;
【基金】：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955502) WHO/UNDP/GEF“适应气候变化保护人类健康”项目(QH1103) 国家空气污染与疾病监测项目(HJ01003)
【分类号】：R188

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