晋城煤业集团法定传染病疫情分析及其时间序列模型预测

发布时间：2018-05-31 15:04

本文选题：传染病 + 流行趋势　；参考：《山西医科大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 目的随着科学技术的进步,人们生活条件的改善和计划免疫的实施,许多传染病得到了有效的控制,但是近年来一些传染病如病毒性肝炎、肺结核等死灰复燃,开始回升。了解这些疾病的发病趋势,从理论上探索其流行规律,预测其发生发展的变化趋势,然后有的放矢的采取相应的干预措施,具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。本文尝试利用ARIMA模型建立痢疾发病的动态模型,探讨ARIMA模型在传染病发病预测方面的应用,为制定科学、有效的防治措施提供理论依据。方法收集晋城煤业集团1998-2007年法定传染病疫情报告表和人口资料,描述1998-2007年各种法定传染病的发病水平及病种分布情况,全面了解不同法定传染病的动态变化趋势。以痢疾为例,对痢疾的月发病数建立ARIMA模型,对晋城煤业集团痢疾发病水平进行模拟与评价。结果1998-2007年共报告法定传染病2898例,年平均发病率为442.83／10万。无甲类传染病报告,乙类和丙类共报告18种。在过去的10年中,法定传染病报告有所增加,2000和2004年出现两个高峰,并在2007年达到最高发病率1024.59／10万。传染病位次也发生明显变化,虫媒传播传染病降低,肠道传染病和血源及性传播疾病上升明显。前三位的传染病为病毒性肝炎、肺结核和痢疾。经痢疾发病的时间序列资料建立的ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型拟合效果较好,能准确预测痢疾发病趋势。结论晋煤集团法定传染病疫情形势严峻,必须加强各种传染病的防治工作。乙肝、肺结核、肠道传染病是今后防治的重点。应用ARIMA模型对痢疾月发病数所建的模型能准确地预测痢疾的发病趋势。
[Abstract]:Objective with the progress of science and technology, the improvement of people's living conditions and the implementation of planned immunization, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled, but in recent years, some infectious diseases, such as viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and so on, began to rise again. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to understand the incidence trend of these diseases, to explore their epidemic law theoretically, to predict the changing trend of their occurrence and development, and then to take corresponding intervention measures. This paper attempts to establish a dynamic model of dysentery by using ARIMA model, and to discuss the application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of infectious diseases, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific and effective prevention and treatment measures. Methods to collect the report form and population data of epidemic situation of statutory infectious diseases in Jincheng Coal Industry Group from 1998 to 2007, to describe the incidence level and distribution of various kinds of statutory infectious diseases from 1998 to 2007, and to understand the dynamic change trend of different legal infectious diseases in an all-round way. Taking dysentery as an example, the ARIMA model was established to simulate and evaluate the incidence level of dysentery in Jincheng Coal Industry Group. Results A total of 2898 cases of statutory infectious diseases were reported from 1998 to 2007, with an average annual incidence of 442.83 / 100 000. No A infectious diseases were reported, 18 species were reported in Group B and Group C. Over the past 10 years, there has been an increase in the number of notifiable infectious diseases reported in 2000 and 2004, reaching a peak of 1,0245.9 per 100,000 in 2007. The rank of infectious diseases also changed obviously, the number of insect-borne infectious diseases decreased, and that of intestinal infectious diseases and blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases increased significantly. The top three infectious diseases are viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and dysentery. According to the time series data of dysentery, the fitting effect of Arima model was good, and it could predict the incidence trend of dysentery accurately. Conclusion the epidemic situation of legal infectious diseases in Jinmei Group is severe, and the prevention and control of various infectious diseases must be strengthened. Hepatitis B, tuberculosis, intestinal infectious diseases are the focus of prevention and treatment in the future. The ARIMA model can accurately predict the incidence trend of dysentery.
【学位授予单位】：山西医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：R181.8

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