杭州市大气气溶胶与心脑血管病急性发作关系的空间流行病学研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 10:02

本文选题：大气气溶胶 + 心脑血管疾病　；参考：《浙江大学》2009年博士论文

【摘要】： 目的: 为了了解心脑血管疾病急性发作是否与时间、地理因素和大气气溶胶有关,研究杭州市大气气溶胶的时空分布及其相关因素,描述杭州市监测人群心脑血管疾病急性发作的时空聚集性,探索大气气溶胶与心脑血管疾病急性发作之间的关系。方法: 大气气溶胶的时间分布采用空间统计学中的自相关分析和kringing插值法,大气气溶胶的相关因素采用自回归滑动平均模型,心脑血管疾病的空间分布采用空间统计学中的Kringing插值法,心脑血管疾病的聚集性采用回顾性重排模型,大气气溶胶与心脑血管疾病的关系采用交互相关分析和时间序列Poisson回归模型。有关数据的空间统计学中的自相关和Kringing插值法采用DPS 9.50数据处理系统,回顾性时空重排模型分析采用SaTScan 7.0.3统计分析软件,其它统计分析采用SPSS 16.0 for Windows统计分析软件,以双侧α=0.05为检验水准。结果: 杭州市大气气溶胶(aerosol optical depth,AOD)在时间分布上具有一定的周期性;在滞后96天、383天、479天、766天、1149天和1532天内呈正相关关系,即趋同的趋势;在滞后191天、287天、574天、957天、1340天和1723天内呈负相关关系,其它没有统计学意义。杭州市AOD在居民区域较高,在有山或有水区域AOD较低;不同月份的AOD分布也不相同。 AOD与次日AOD存在正相关关系(t=39.531,P=0.000);AOD与相对湿度(t=3.700,P=0.000)、SO_2(t=-3.064,P=0.002)、NO_2(t=2.148,P=0.032)以及滞后一日的NO_2(t=-2.769,P=0.006)存在关联,而与温度和云层无统计学关联。富阳市的渌渚镇、胥口镇、新桐乡、新登镇、场口镇、万市镇、鹿山街道、永昌镇、东洲街道、环山乡、春建乡、湖源乡、常安镇、龙门镇和洞桥镇监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在1998/10/20-2005/11/25期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.05,P=0.001);建德市的大慈岩镇、新安江镇、洋溪街道、更楼街道、莲花镇和寿昌镇监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在2000/12/1-2004/12/22期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.01,P=0.001),富阳市的富春街道、渔山乡监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在1995/6/15-2005/11/18期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.05,P=0.001);建德市的大洋镇、童家乡和富阳市的大源镇监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在2002/1/15-2004/7/17期间具有聚集性(SMR=3.13,P=0.001);富阳市的高桥镇和灵桥镇监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在1997/1/1-2004/5/17期间具有聚集性(SMR=2.77,P=0.001);杭州市的石桥街道、东新街道、文晖街道和潮鸣街道监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在2001/12/21-2004/12/28期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.17,P=0.001);富阳市的大同镇监测人群心脑血管疾病的急性发作在2002/2/2-2004/12/13期间具有聚集性(SMR=2.52,P=0.001)。富阳市的渌渚镇、新桐乡、新登镇、场口镇、万市镇、鹿山街道、永昌镇、环山乡、春建乡、湖源乡、常安镇、洞桥镇、富春街道、上官乡、灵桥镇、东洲街道、常绿镇、高桥镇、受降镇、里山镇、渔山乡、大源镇和建德市的乾潭镇、杨村桥镇、三都镇、下涯镇、梅城镇、洋溪街道、莲花镇、大洋镇监测人群的冠心病急性发作在2004/7/15-2005/12/11期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.42,P=0.001),杭州市的石桥街道、东新街道、文晖街道和潮鸣街道监测人群的冠心病急性发作在2002/1/5-2005/1/25期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.00,P=0.001),杭州市的紫阳街道、城站街道、小营街道、湖滨街道、望江街道、天水街道、朝晖街道、武林街道、长庆街道和清波街道监测人群的冠心病急性发作在2004/7/4-2006/1/2期间具有聚集性(SMR=1.44,P=0.006)。富阳市的新登镇、永昌镇、春建乡、万市镇、鹿山街道、场口镇、新义乡、富春街道、环山乡和东洲街道监测人群的脑卒中急性发作在2002/7/28-2005/11/30期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.00,P=0.001),建德市的大同镇监测人群的脑卒中急性发作在2002/8/15-2004/1/25期间具有聚集性(SMR=4.19,P=0.002),杭州市的清波街道,武林街道,天水街道和朝晖街道监测人群的脑卒中急性发作在2005/3/31-2005/9/10期间具有随机性(SMR=5.26,P=0.591),富阳市的富春街道监测人群的脑卒中急性发作在2006/4/14-2006/4/28期间具有随机性(SMR=23.00,P=0.722),建德市的三都镇和洋溪街道监测人群的脑卒中急性发作在2005/1/11-2005/2/15期间具有随机性(SMR=22.08,P=0.754)。建德市的大同镇、寿昌镇、下涯镇、乾潭镇和富阳市的场口镇监测人群的心源性猝死急性发作在2005/6/20-2006/12/20期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.07,P=0.001),杭州市的长庆街道、小营街道、武林街道、湖滨街道、天水街道、文晖街道、清波街道、紫阳街道、望江街道、朝晖街道、南星桥街道和石桥街道监测人群的心源性猝死急性发作在2002/8/26-2004/12/20期间具有随机性(SMR=0.00,P=0.072),富阳市的受降镇监测人群的心源性猝死急性发作在2004/12/20-2005/4/29期间具有随机性(SMR=10.78,P=0.394),富阳市的万市镇监测人群的心源性猝死急性发作在2006/1/19-2006/1/19期间具有随机性(SMR=48.50,P=0.512),富阳市的高桥镇和灵桥镇监测人群的心源性猝死急性发作在2005/10/18-2005/11/18期间具有随机性(SMR=32.33,P=0.890)。富阳市的渌渚镇、胥口镇、新桐乡、新登镇、场口镇、万市镇、鹿山街道、永昌镇、环山乡、春建乡、湖源乡、常安镇、龙门镇和洞桥镇监测人群的脑出血急性发作在2000/11/20-2005/9/8期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.03,P=0.001),建德市的大慈岩镇、新安江镇、更楼街道、莲花镇和寿昌镇监测人群的脑出血急性发作在2000/12/1-2004/12/20期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.01,P=0.001),建德市的大洋镇、大源镇和童家乡监测人群的脑出血急性发作在2002/2/16-2004/9/28期间具有聚集性(SMR=2.66,P=0.001),杭州市的长庆街道、天水街道、朝晖街道、武林街道、小营街道、潮鸣街道、清波街道、湖滨街道、城站街道、文晖街道、东新街道、紫阳街道、望江街道、石桥街道和富阳市的富春街道和渔山乡监测人群的脑出血急性发作在1999/9/11-2004/4/12期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.37,P=0.001),富阳市的高桥镇和灵桥镇监测人群的脑出血急性发作在2005/12/6-2007/2/8期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.31,P=0.001),富阳市的东洲街道监测人群的脑出血急性发作在2001/8/1-2005/12/19期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.03,P=0.001)。富阳市的龙门镇、环山乡、上官乡、常安镇、场口镇、鹿山街道、湖源乡、新桐乡、常绿镇、灵桥镇、里山镇、高桥镇、东洲街道、渔山乡、春建乡、富春街道,新登镇、渌渚镇、永昌镇、受降镇、胥口镇、万市镇、洞桥镇,杭州市的南星街道、紫阳街道与望江街道和建德市的寿昌镇监测人群的脑血栓形成急性发作在2001/5/10-2005/12/28期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.44,P=0.001),建德市的乾潭镇监测人群的脑血栓形成急性发作在2002/1/12-2003/11/14期间具有聚集性(SMR=12.73,P=0.001),杭州市的长庆街道、天水街道、朝晖街道、武林街道和小营街道监测人群的脑血栓形成急性发作在2004/3/25-2005/1/28期间具有聚集性(SMR=2.67,P=0.010),杭州市的东新街道监测人群的脑血栓形成急性发作在2007/1/15-2007/1/18期间具有随机性(SMR=84.09,P=0.191)。富阳市的渌渚镇、胥口镇、新桐乡、新登镇、场口镇、万市镇、鹿山街道、永昌镇、环山乡、春建乡、湖源乡、常安镇、龙门镇和洞桥镇监测人群的脑栓塞急性发作在1995/6/15-2005/11/30期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.01,P=0.001),建德市的大慈岩镇、新安江镇、更楼街道、莲花镇和寿昌镇监测人群的脑栓塞急性发作在1997/11/7-2005/1/13期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.00,P=0.001),富阳市的富春街道和渔山乡监测人群的脑栓塞急性发作在1995/6/15-2005/12/5期间具有聚集性(SMR=0.03,P=0.001),杭州市的城站街道、小营街道、长庆街道和紫阳街道监测人群的脑栓塞急性发作在2002/9/21-2005/2/14期间具有聚集性(SMR=2.02,P=0.001)。心脑血管疾病急性发作率与星期几[以星期天为参照,其中星期四(t=2.933,P=0.003),星期六(t=3.015,P=0.003)]、与大气气溶胶日平均光学厚度(t=2.962,P=0.003)有关。其中冠心病与云层(t=2.860,P=0.004)、与PM_(10)日平均浓度有(t=2.388,P=0.017),与气溶胶类型(t=2.680,P=0.008)有关;心源性猝死与星期几[以星期天为参照,其中星期六(t=2.918,P=0.004),星期五(t=3.746,P=0.000)]、与云层(t=2.779,P=0.006)有关;脑卒中与云层有关(t=2.088,P=0.037);脑出血与大气气溶胶日平均光学厚度有关(t=2.117,P=0.035);脑血栓与星期几有关[以星期天为参照,其中星期一(t=3.176,P=0.002),星期二(t=2.133,P=0.033),星期六(t=2.600,P=0.009)];脑栓塞与星期几有关[以星期天为参照,其中星期六(t=2.600,P=0.009)]。结论: 杭州市大气气溶胶具有自相关性和明显的时空特征,大气气溶胶与环境和气象因素有关。心脑血管疾病急性发作具有时空聚集性,大气气溶胶对心脑血管疾病和脑出血急性发作有影响。
[Abstract]:Objective:
In order to understand whether acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are related to time, geographical factors and atmospheric aerosols, the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric aerosols in Hangzhou and related factors are studied. The spatial and temporal aggregation of acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Hangzhou people are described, and the relationship between atmospheric aerosols and acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is explored. Relationship.
Method:
The temporal distribution of atmospheric aerosols is based on autocorrelation analysis and Kringing interpolation in spatial statistics. The correlation factors of atmospheric aerosols are autoregressive moving average model. The spatial distribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is based on the Kringing interpolation in spatial statistics. The aggregation of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases adopts a retrospective rearrangement model, and the atmosphere has a retrospective rearrangement model. The relationship between aerosols and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases adopts interactive correlation analysis and time series Poisson regression model. Autocorrelation and Kringing interpolation in spatial statistics of related data use DPS 9.50 data processing system, retrospective spatiotemporal rearrangement model analysis adopts SaTScan 7.0.3 analysis software, and other statistical analysis uses SPSS 16. 0 for Windows statistical analysis software, with bilateral alpha =0.05 as the test level.
Result:
The time distribution of atmospheric aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD) in Hangzhou has a certain periodicity, and there is a positive correlation between 96 days, 383 days, 479 days, 766 days, 1149 days and 1532 days, that is, the trend of convergence, and there is a negative correlation between 191 days, 287 days, 574 days, 957 days, 1340 days and 1723 days, and the other is not statistically significant.
The AOD of Hangzhou is higher in the residential area, and the AOD is lower in the mountainous area or the water area. The AOD distribution in different months is also different.
There is a positive correlation between AOD and the following day AOD (t=39.531, P=0.000); AOD is associated with relative humidity (t=3.700, P=0.000), SO_2 (t=-3.064, P=0.002), NO_2 (t=2.148), and one day lagging, but has no statistical correlation with temperature and cloud layer.
Fuyang's lushzhu Town, Xu Kou Town, new Tongxiang, Xin Deng Town, Changkou Town, luankou Town, Lushan street, Yongchang Town, Dongzhou street, Huan Shan township, Chun Jian Township, Lake source Township, Chang'an Town, Longmen town and Dong Qiao Town monitor the acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the 1998/10/ 20-2005/11/25 period (SMR=0.05, P=0.001); the Jiande city of great crock The town, Xin'An River town, Yangxi street, Chang Lou street, Lianhua town and Shou Chang town monitored the acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in 2000/12/1-2004/12/22 (SMR=0.01, P=0.001), Fuchun street in Fuyang, and the acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Yushan village were aggregated during 1995/6/15-2005/11/18 (SMR =0.05, P=0.001); the acute attacks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jiande City, Tong's hometown and Fuyang city were aggregated (SMR=3.13, P=0.001) during 2002/1/15-2004/7/17, and the acute attack of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease in Gaoqiao Town and Ling Qiao town in Fuyang was aggregated during 1997/1/1-2004/5/17 (S MR=2.77, P=0.001); Hangzhou Shiqiao street, Dongxin Street, Wenhui street and chaoming Street monitored the acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the crowd (SMR=0.17, P=0.001) during the period of 2001/12/21-2004/12/28; the acute attack of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Datong town of Fuyang city had aggregation during 2002/2/2-2004/12/13. Sex (SMR=2.52, P=0.001).
Lushzhu town of Fuyang, new Tongxiang, Xin Deng Town, Luokou Town, Lushan street, Yongchang Town, ring Mountain Township, spring building township, Lake source Township, Chang'an Town, Dong Qiao Town, Fuchun street, Shangguan Township, Ling Qiao Town, Dongzhou street, evergreen Town, Gaoqiao Town, Lushan Town, Yashan town, Yushan Town, Yushan Town, Yushan Town, Yang Village Bridge Town, three capital town, the next town, The acute attacks of coronary heart disease in the people of Mecheng Town, Yangxi street, Lianhua town and oceanic town were aggregated (SMR=0.42, P=0.001) during 2004/7/15-2005/12/11. The acute attack of coronary heart disease in Hangzhou City Shiqiao street, Dongxin Street, Wenhui street and tidal Street monitored the aggregation of coronary heart disease (SMR=0.00, P=0.0) during the period of 2002/1/5-2005/1/25. 01) the acute attacks of coronary heart disease in Hangzhou city of Ziyang Street, City Station Street, small street, lakeside street, Wangjiang street, Tianshui street, Zhaohui street, Wulin street, Changqing street and Qing Po Street were aggregated (SMR=1.44, P=0.006) during the period of 2004/7/4-2006/1/2.
Fuyang's Xindeng Town, Yongchang Town, Chun Jian Township, Wan Town, Lushan street, field mouth town, Xinyi Township, Fuchun street, Huan Shan township and Dongzhou Street monitor the acute episodes of stroke during 2002/7/28-2005/11/30 (SMR=0.00, P=0.001), and the acute stroke of the monitoring population in Datong town of Jiande city is 2002/8/15-2004/1/2 During the 5 period, SMR=4.19 (P=0.002), Hangzhou city's Qing Bo street, Wulin street, Tianshui street and Zhaohui Street monitored acute episodes of stroke during 2005/3/31-2005/9/10 (SMR=5.26, P=0.591), and the acute attack of apoplexy in Fuyang's Fuchun Street monitoring population was in the period of 2006/4/14-2006/4/28. The randomness (SMR=23.00, P=0.722), the acute episodes of stroke in the people of San Du Town and Yangxi street in Jiande were random (SMR=22.08, P=0.754) during the period of 2005/1/11-2005/2/15.
Jiande's Datong Town, Shou Chang town, Xiacan Town, Qian Tan town and Fuyang city of Changkou town monitoring sudden cardiac death acute attack in the period of 2005/6/20-2006/12/20 with aggregation (SMR=0.07, P=0.001), Hangzhou city of Changqing street, small street, Wulin street, lake shore street, Tianshui street, Wenhui street, Qing Po Street, Ziyang Street, looking Ziyang Street, hope. The acute episodes of sudden cardiac death in the crowd were random (SMR=0.00, P=0.072) during 2002/8/26-2004/12/20 (SMR=0.00, P=0.072). The sudden cardiac sudden onset of sudden cardiac death from the monitoring population in the town of Fuyang was random (SMR=10.78, P=0.394) during the period of 2004/12/20-2005/4/ 29, and Fuyang city. The sudden cardiac sudden onset of sudden cardiac death in the people of the town of Wan City was random (SMR=48.50, P=0.512) during 2006/1/19-2006/1/19. The sudden cardiac sudden onset of sudden cardiac death in Gaoqiao Town and Ling Qiao town in Fuyang was random (SMR=32.33, P=0.890) during the period of 2005/10/18-2005/11/18.
In lushzhu Town, Xu Kou Town, new Tongxiang, Xin Deng Town, Changkou Town, Wan Town, Lushan street, Yongchang Town, ring Mountain Township, spring building township, Lake source Township, Chang'an Town, Longmen town and Dong Qiao Town, the acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in 2000/11/20-2005/9/8, Jiande City, Xin'An River Town, Xin'An River town, ChangLou The acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in the streets, Lianhua and Shou Chang towns were aggregated (SMR=0.01, P=0.001) during the 2000/12/1-2004/12/20 period. The acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in Jiande, Dayang Town, and children's hometown monitored the acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in the 2002/2/16-2004/9/28 period (SMR=2.66, P=0.001), the Changqing street of Hangzhou, and the Tianshui. Streets, Zhaohui streets, Wulin street, small street, Chao Ming Street, clearing street, lakeside street, City Station Street, Wenhui street, Dongxin Street, Ziyang Street, Wangjiang street, Shiqiao street and Fuyang city's Fuchun street and fishing Mountain Township monitoring crowd have aggregation (SMR=0.37, P=0.001) during the period of the cerebral hemorrhage during the period of 1999/9/11-2004/4/12, The acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in Gaoqiao Town and Ling Qiao town in Fuyang were aggregated (SMR=0.31, P=0.001) during the period of 2005/12/6-2007/2/8, and the acute episodes of cerebral hemorrhage in Dongzhou Street monitoring population in Fuyang were aggregated (SMR=0.03, P=0.001) during the period of 2001/8/1-2005/12/19.
Longmen town of Fuyang, Shangguan Township, Chang'an Town, Changkou Town, Lushan street, Lake source Township, new Tongxiang, evergreen Town, Ling Qiao Town, Li Shan town, Gaoqiao Town, Dongzhou street, fishing Mountain Township, Chun Jian Township, Fuchun Town, lushzhu Town, Yongchang Town, shigaozhen, Xu Kou Town, Xu Kou Town, Tong Kou Town, Dong Qiao Town, Hangzhou City, the Southern Star Street of Hangzhou City, Ziyang Street and Wangjiang The acute episodes of cerebral thrombosis in the people of Shou Chang town, Jiande City, were SMR=0.44 (P=0.001) during the period of 2001/5/10-2005/12/28, and the acute episodes of cerebral thrombosis in Jiande's dry Tan town were aggregated (SMR=12.73, P=0.001) during the period of 2002/1/12-2003/11/14, the Changqing street in Hangzhou, and the Tianshui Street The acute episodes of cerebral thrombosis in the crowd of Zhaohui street, Wulin street and small camp were aggregated (SMR=2.67, P=0.010) during 2004/3/25-2005/1/28, and the acute episodes of cerebral thrombosis in the East New Street monitoring population in Hangzhou were random (SMR=84.09, P=0.191) during the period of 2007/1/15-2007/1/18.
In lushzhu Town, Xu Kou Town, new Tongxiang, Xin Deng Town, Changkou Town, Wan Town, Lushan street, Yongchang Town, ring Mountain Township, spring building township, Lake source Township, Chang'an Town, Longmen town and Dong Qiao Town, the acute episodes of cerebral embolism in 1995/6/15-2005/11/30, Jiande City, Xin'An River Town, Xin'An River town, ChangLou. The acute episodes of cerebral embolism in the streets, Lianhua and Shou Chang towns were aggregated (SMR=0.00, P=0.001) during 1997/11/7-2005/1/13, and the acute episodes of cerebral embolism in Fuchun street and fishing mountain village in Fuyang were aggregated (SMR=0.03, P=0.001) during 1995/6/15-2005/12/5, the streets of Hangzhou city station, and the small street, The acute episode of cerebral embolism in Changqing street and Ziyang Street monitoring group was aggregated during 2002/9/21-2005/2/14 (SMR=2.02, P=0.001).
Acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and weeks [with Sunday as the reference, Thursday (t=2.933, P=0.003), and Saturday (t=3.015, P=0.003)] related to the daily mean optical thickness of atmospheric aerosols (t=2.962, P=0.003), including coronary heart disease and cloud (t=2.860, P=0.004), and PM_ (10) daily mean concentration (t=2.388, P=0.017), and aerosol types ( T=2.680, P=0.008); cardiac sudden death and weeks [with Sunday as reference, Saturday (t=2.918, P=0.004), Friday (t=3.746, P=0.000)) related to cloud layer (t=2.779, P=0.006); cerebral apoplexy associated with cloud layer (t=2.088, P=0.037); cerebral hemorrhage and atmospheric aerosol daily mean optical thickness (t=2.117, P=0.035); cerebral thrombosis and week A few references [with Sunday as a reference, of which Monday (t=3.176, P=0.002), Tuesday (t=2.133, P=0.033), Saturday (t=2.600, P=0.009)]; cerebral embolism related to weeks [refer to Sunday, t=2.600, P=0.009).
Conclusion:
Atmospheric aerosols in Hangzhou have autocorrelation and obvious spatio-temporal characteristics, and atmospheric aerosols are related to environment and meteorological factors. The acute episodes of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have spatial and temporal aggregation, and atmospheric aerosols have an impact on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and acute cerebral hemorrhage.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：R181.3

【引证文献】