CUSUM模型在流行性腮腺炎早期预警中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 11:57

  本文选题：CUSUM模型 + 流行性腮腺炎　； 参考：《中国卫生统计》2014年04期

【摘要】：目的探讨累积和控制图模型(cumulative sum control chart,CUSUM)在流行性腮腺炎早期预警中的应用价值,为流行性腮腺炎的应急防制提供科学依据,也为其他传染病突发公共卫生事件的预警研究提供参考和借鉴。方法以江苏省各区县每日发病数为基础,从2012年1月1日起以CUSUM模型进行前瞻性试验,用灵敏度、特异度、及时性等3个指标对预警结果进行评价,并比较CUSUM模型预警与国家传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)之间的优劣。结果应用CUSUM模型进行预警分析全年共产生1688条预警信号,比自动预警系统产生的信号数少35.30%。CUSUM模型预警灵敏度为100%、特异度为95.84%,均高于自动预警系统(χ2=6.087,P=0.0136;χ2=602.48,P0.0001);CUSUM模型预警及时性的中位数为3.5天,自动预警系统为6天,两者无统计学差异(Z=0.9173,P=0.3590)。结论江苏省腮腺炎疫情数据CUSUM模型预警分析效果优于自动预警系统,且有进一步提高的空间。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application value of cumulative and control chart model (CUSUM) in early warning of mumps, and to provide scientific basis for emergency prevention and control of mumps. It also provides a reference for the early warning of public health emergencies of other infectious diseases. Methods based on the daily incidence of disease in every district and county of Jiangsu Province, a prospective test was conducted with CUSUM model from January 1, 2012. The early warning results were evaluated with three indexes: sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. The advantages and disadvantages of CUSUM model and national infectious disease automatic warning system are compared. Results A total of 1688 early warning signals were generated by using CUSUM model for early warning analysis. The early warning sensitivity and specificity of 35.30%.CUSUM model were 100 and 95.844.It was higher than that of automatic warning system (蠂 2 6.087 P0. 0136, 蠂 2 602.48 P0. 0001), the median of early warning time of CUSUM model was 3. 5 days, and that of automatic warning system was 6 days. There was no statistical difference between the two models. Conclusion the effect of CUSUM model is better than that of automatic warning system, and there is room for further improvement.
【作者单位】： 江苏省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109,RC2011085) 江苏省预防医学科研项目(YZ201020)
【分类号】：R512.1;R181.2
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本文编号：1991089