广东省2009-2012年手足口病流行趋势分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 09:13

本文选题：手足口病 + 流行趋势　；参考：《中山大学学报(医学科学版)》2014年04期

【摘要】：【目的】分析广东省2009-2012年手足口病在三间分布和病原构成上的流行病学特征及其变化趋势。【方法】利用广东省2009-2012年手足口病监测数据、广东省人口数据和地理资料,对全省的手足口病时间趋势、人群分布特征以及病原构成等进行分析,继而运用Moran's I确证相邻区县发病率的空间自相关性和异质性,并纳入贝叶斯空间模型,估算各年各区县发病的相对危险度(RR),探索全省手足口病发病风险变化的空间模式。【结果】广东省手足口病病例数(9.3万~33.1万)和发病率(9.75/万~32.08/万)逐年上升,年内呈双峰分布。男性高发,男女发病率之比(1.75~1.90)逐年下降;不同类型病例均主要集中于5岁以下儿童,以1~2岁组儿童所占比例和发病率最高;EV71感染者的重症率(22.62%~34.11%)和病死率(0.93%~3.83%)均比COX A16感染者(重症率:1.32%~3.48%;病死率:0.00%)要高。各年Moran's I在0.39~0.51之间。珠三角地区的发病率和相对危险度最高,且逐年上升。【结论】在2009-2012年之间,广东省手足口病流行强度逐年增强。不同时间、不同性别、不同年龄组发病率均存在较大差异。手足口病的发病率存在中等强度的空间自相关性和异质性,珠三角区域是该病高发病高风险区域,且每年的空间风险分布格局有所变化。
[Abstract]:[objective] to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trend of HFMD in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2012. [methods] using the HFMD surveillance data, population data and geographical data from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong Province, the distribution and pathogen composition of HFMD in Guangdong Province were analyzed. Based on the analysis of the time trend, population distribution and pathogen composition of HFMD in the province, the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of the incidence of HFMD in neighboring counties were confirmed by Morans I, and the spatial model was incorporated into Bayesian model. To estimate the relative risk of HFMD in different districts and counties, and to explore the spatial model of HFMD risk change in Guangdong province. [results] the number of HFMD cases (93000 ~ 331000) and the incidence rate of HFMD (9.75 / 10 ~ 3.28 / 000) in Guangdong Province increased year by year, with a bimodal distribution in the year. The incidence ratio of male to female decreased from 1.75 to 1.90), and different types of cases were mainly concentrated in children under 5 years of age. The proportion of children with EV71 infection was the highest in the group of 1 to 2 years old, the rate of severe disease was 22.62% and the mortality rate was 0.93%. The mortality rate was higher than that of Cox A16 infection group (the serious case rate was 1.32% 3.48%; the mortality rate was 0.0010%). The Moranthus I was between 0.39 and 0.51 in each year. The incidence and relative risk of HFMD in the Pearl River Delta region are the highest and increasing year by year. [conclusion] during 2009-2012, the epidemic intensity of HFMD in Guangdong Province increased year by year. At different time, gender, age group, there are great differences in the incidence rate. The incidence of HFMD has moderate spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity. The Pearl River Delta region is a high risk area and the spatial risk distribution pattern of HFMD varies from year to year.
【作者单位】：中山大学公共卫生学院;山东女子学院;中国疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：国家科技部科技重大专项“十二五”计划第二批之“传染病防治综合示范区”项目(2012ZX10004902)
【分类号】：R725.1;R181.3

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