广东四地区热浪对死亡的影响及热浪特点的效应修饰作用

发布时间：2018-06-24 20:24

  本文选题：热浪 + 死亡　； 参考：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的评估广东省南雄、广州、珠海和台山市热浪对居民死亡的影响，探讨热浪的特点对热浪与死亡关系的修饰作用大小，为制定政策降低热浪的健康风险提供科学依据。 方法收集2006~2010年四地区逐日气象和居民死亡数据，建立分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM），将热浪对死亡的效应分成主效应（由高温引起）和附加效应（由高温持续时间引起），分析不同滞后期各地区热浪的累积主效应与附加效应大小，并用Meta分析合并四地区效应值。然后研究热浪对不同疾病死亡别、年龄别、性别人群死亡效应大小。最后研究热浪的持续时间、强度和发生时间对热浪与人群死亡关系的修饰作用大小。 结果在热浪发生当天时，四地区热浪的主效应（RR=1.082，95%CI：1.034~1.132）大于附加效应（RR=1.000，，95%CI：0.962~1.04）。热浪当天在两个县级市南雄（RR=1.154，95%CI：1.029~1.294）、台山（RR=1.125，95%CI：1.064~1.19）所造成的死亡效应比两个经济发达城市广州（RR=1.048，95%CI：1.006~1.091）、珠海（RR=1.046，95%CI：0.973~1.124）大。南雄、珠海和台山累积主效应均在滞后2日，广州在滞后4日时达到最大，随着滞后日增加逐渐减小，在一周左右降至最低。热浪的主效应对呼吸系统疾病死亡风险（RR=1.345，95%CI：1.174~1.542）和循环系统疾病死亡风险（RR=1.193，95%CI：1.095~1.301）均大于总死亡风险（RR=1.131，95%CI：1.071~1.195）。热浪的主效应中75岁以上年龄和女性人群死亡风险最大，效应值分别为1.209（95%CI：1.081~1.351）、1.166（95%CI：1.062~1.279）。热浪的持续时间每增加1天，人群的死亡风险增加1.4%（95%CI：-0.6%~3.4%）；热浪期间温度每增加1℃，人群的死亡风险增加1.2%（95%CI：-5.6%~8.5%）；热浪的发生时间每推迟10天，人群的死亡风险减少0.1%（95%CI：-1.2%~1.0%），均无统计学意义。 结论热浪的效应主要归因于温度升高的作用，热浪的主效应存在滞后作用，但持续时间较短。经济欠发达、贫困地区为热浪的脆弱地区。循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病患者、75岁以上、女性是热浪的脆弱人群。本研究没有发现广东省四地区热浪的持续时间、强度和发生时间对热浪与死亡关系有修饰作用。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the effect of heat wave on the death of residents in Nanxiong, Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Taishan City, Guangdong Province, and to explore the effect of heat wave characteristics on the relationship between heat wave and death, so as to provide scientific basis for making policies to reduce the health risk of heat wave. Methods the daily meteorological data and death data of residents in the four regions from 2006 to 2010 were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was established to divide the heat wave effect on death into main effect (caused by high temperature) and additional effect (caused by high temperature duration). Meta analysis was used to analyze the effect values of the four regions. Then the effect of heat wave on the death of different diseases, age and sex was studied. Finally, the effect of heat wave duration, intensity and occurrence time on the relationship between heat wave and death was studied. Results on the day of the heat wave, the principal effect of heat wave in the four regions (RRN 1.082 / 95) was greater than the additional effect (RRN 1.00095% CI: 0.962U 1.04). On the same day, the heatwave in two county-level cities, Nanxiong (RRX 1.154) and Taishan (RRX 1.125 + 95 CI: 1.064 1.19), caused a greater death effect than in two economically developed cities, Guangzhou (RRRN 1.048) and Zhuhai (RRN 1.046 95 CI: 0.973cn 1.124), and in two county-level cities, Nanxiong (RRX 1.154), Taishan (RRX 1.125), and 95 CI: 1.064: 1.19, the two economically developed cities, Guangzhou (RRX 1.048) and Zhuhai (RRN 1.046 95 CI: 0.973 / 1.124). The cumulative main effects of Nanxiong, Zhuhai and Taishan were all 2 days behind, Guangzhou reached its maximum at 4 days, gradually decreased with the increase of lag day, and decreased to the lowest in about one week. The main effects of heat wave on the risk of respiratory disease death (RRN 1.34595 CI: 1.1741.542) and circulatory disease death risk (RRRN 1.19395 95 CI: 1.0951.301) were higher than the total death risk (RRRN 1.13195 CIW 1.0711.195). The main effect of heat wave was that 75 years old and over and female population had the highest risk of death, the effect values were 1.209 (95% CI: 1.081 1.351) and 1.166 (95% CI: 1.062 2 / 1.279). For every day that the heat wave lasts, the risk of death of the crowd increases by 1.4% (95% CI: -0.6%); for every 1 鈩

本文编号：2062800