SARS流行病学仿真分析及防控策略研究
发布时间：2018-08-09 11:52
【摘要】： 目的:了解SARS的流行病学规律,发现在不同时间对SARS实施不同控制措施(主要是扩大疑似病例的处理范围和限制人口自由流动)的作用和效果,确立SARS在人群中的扩散趋势得到有效控制的判别标准、超级传播者在SARS传播中的作用及SARS的控制策略等问题。 方法:本文采用2002年10月至2003年5月间我国发生SARS的疫情数据,在对中国SARS流行病学系统分析结论的基础上,应用系统动力学的思想、理论和方法,建立了中国SARS流行病学系统动态反馈仿真模型,并在此基础上对不同控制措施的效果进行了比较,对北京市和广东省两个主要疫区各种控制措施进行了仿真分析,在回答上述问题的基础上,最后给出了中国SARS的防控策略及防控效果评价标准。 结果与讨论: 1.通过仿真分析得出在SARS发病早期必须同时采用“扩大疑似病例的处理范围”和“限制人口自由流动”两种措施,才能有效抑制SARS的扩散;当病人的平均自由散毒时间低于10天以下时,此时控制的重点应放在加强扩大疑似病人的隔离范围上,这样才能有效降低SARS的扩散速度并减轻经济影响。另外,还给出了两种控制措施对SARS控制效果的影响及SARS的扩散趋势是否被抑制住的判断标准等。 2.通过对广东省SARS真实发病情况的仿真分析发现:SARS病毒存在变异,主要反应在SARS传出广东省之后,SARS病人的传染概率在原有的7.33%基础上平均增强了4.8%左右;限制人口流动和扩大疑似病人隔离范围两项控制有延迟效应,分别为15天和20天左右;超级传播者并不能改变SARS的传播趋势,只是增加了发病数量,延长了SARS病的控制时间;广东省在SARS控制方面主要是在后期采取了扩大疑似病人的隔离范围控制住了疫情,媒体在限制人口流动方面起了主要作用。另外,本文还给出了SARS控制效果判别标准及防控方案优化标准。 3.通过对北京市SARS真实发病情况的仿真分析发现:在SARS病毒的毒力处于高峰期,北京SARS得到快速有效控制一个重要经验是北京在SARS出现早期同时加强了扩大疑似病人隔离范围和限制人口流动两种控制措施,但在SARS发生全过程中不断加强限制人口流动这一做法并不是最优控制策略;限制人口流动和扩大疑似病人隔离范围两项控制有延迟效应,分别为15天和21天左右;另外本文还给出了当SARS病人的传染概率处于高峰期时,SARS控制效果判别标准及防控方案优化标准。 这些结论不仅对SARS防控方案的优化非常重要,而且所建立的模型及其仿真实现技术对其他疫病的流行病学及防控策略研究都具有广泛的普适性意义。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the epidemiological law of SARS, and to find out the effect of different control measures on SARS at different times (mainly to expand the treatment range of suspected cases and limit the free movement of population). The criteria for the effective control of the diffusion trend of SARS in the population, the role of super communicators in the spread of SARS and the control strategy of SARS are established. Methods: the epidemic data of SARS in China from October 2002 to May 2003 were used. Based on the results of systematic analysis of SARS epidemiology in China, the ideas, theories and methods of system dynamics were applied. The dynamic feedback simulation model of SARS epidemiology system in China was established, and the effects of different control measures were compared, and various control measures in two major epidemic areas of Beijing and Guangdong were simulated and analyzed. On the basis of answering the above questions, the prevention and control strategy and the evaluation criteria for the control effect of SARS in China are given. Results and discussions: 1. Through simulation analysis, it is concluded that in the early stage of SARS, two measures must be adopted at the same time: "enlarging the scope of treatment of suspected cases" and "restricting the free flow of population" in order to effectively suppress the spread of SARS. When the average free spreading time of patients is less than 10 days, the focus of control should be on strengthening the isolation of suspected patients, so as to effectively reduce the diffusion rate of SARS and reduce the economic impact. In addition, the influence of two kinds of control measures on the control effect of SARS and the criterion of whether the diffusion trend of SARS is restrained or not are given. 2. Through the simulation analysis of the true incidence of SARS in Guangdong Province, it was found that there was a variation of the SARS virus, and the infection probability of the patients with SARS increased by about 4.8% on the basis of the original 7.33% after the SARS was transmitted to Guangdong Province. Limiting population flow and expanding the isolation range of suspected patients had delayed effects, which were about 15 days and 20 days respectively. Super communicators could not change the transmission trend of SARS, but only increased the number of cases and prolonged the control time of SARS disease. In Guangdong Province, the SARS control was mainly carried out in the later stage to expand the isolation of suspected patients to control the epidemic, and the media played a major role in restricting population mobility. In addition, the criterion of SARS control effect and the optimization standard of prevention and control scheme are also given in this paper. 3. Based on the simulation analysis of the true incidence of SARS in Beijing, it is found that the virulence of SARS virus is at its peak. An important lesson of Beijing SARS's rapid and effective control is that at the same time Beijing strengthened its control measures to expand the scope of suspected patient isolation and restrict population mobility in the early stages of SARS. However, it is not the optimal control strategy to strengthen the restriction of population mobility during the whole process of SARS, and the two controls, restricting population flow and expanding the scope of suspected patient isolation, have delayed effects, which are about 15 days and 21 days, respectively. In addition, the criteria for judging the effectiveness of SARS control and optimizing the control scheme are given when the transmission probability of SARS patients is in the peak period. These conclusions are not only very important for the optimization of SARS prevention and control scheme, but also have extensive universal significance for the epidemiology and control strategy research of other epidemic diseases.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：R181.3
本文编号：2173991
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the epidemiological law of SARS, and to find out the effect of different control measures on SARS at different times (mainly to expand the treatment range of suspected cases and limit the free movement of population). The criteria for the effective control of the diffusion trend of SARS in the population, the role of super communicators in the spread of SARS and the control strategy of SARS are established. Methods: the epidemic data of SARS in China from October 2002 to May 2003 were used. Based on the results of systematic analysis of SARS epidemiology in China, the ideas, theories and methods of system dynamics were applied. The dynamic feedback simulation model of SARS epidemiology system in China was established, and the effects of different control measures were compared, and various control measures in two major epidemic areas of Beijing and Guangdong were simulated and analyzed. On the basis of answering the above questions, the prevention and control strategy and the evaluation criteria for the control effect of SARS in China are given. Results and discussions: 1. Through simulation analysis, it is concluded that in the early stage of SARS, two measures must be adopted at the same time: "enlarging the scope of treatment of suspected cases" and "restricting the free flow of population" in order to effectively suppress the spread of SARS. When the average free spreading time of patients is less than 10 days, the focus of control should be on strengthening the isolation of suspected patients, so as to effectively reduce the diffusion rate of SARS and reduce the economic impact. In addition, the influence of two kinds of control measures on the control effect of SARS and the criterion of whether the diffusion trend of SARS is restrained or not are given. 2. Through the simulation analysis of the true incidence of SARS in Guangdong Province, it was found that there was a variation of the SARS virus, and the infection probability of the patients with SARS increased by about 4.8% on the basis of the original 7.33% after the SARS was transmitted to Guangdong Province. Limiting population flow and expanding the isolation range of suspected patients had delayed effects, which were about 15 days and 20 days respectively. Super communicators could not change the transmission trend of SARS, but only increased the number of cases and prolonged the control time of SARS disease. In Guangdong Province, the SARS control was mainly carried out in the later stage to expand the isolation of suspected patients to control the epidemic, and the media played a major role in restricting population mobility. In addition, the criterion of SARS control effect and the optimization standard of prevention and control scheme are also given in this paper. 3. Based on the simulation analysis of the true incidence of SARS in Beijing, it is found that the virulence of SARS virus is at its peak. An important lesson of Beijing SARS's rapid and effective control is that at the same time Beijing strengthened its control measures to expand the scope of suspected patient isolation and restrict population mobility in the early stages of SARS. However, it is not the optimal control strategy to strengthen the restriction of population mobility during the whole process of SARS, and the two controls, restricting population flow and expanding the scope of suspected patient isolation, have delayed effects, which are about 15 days and 21 days, respectively. In addition, the criteria for judging the effectiveness of SARS control and optimizing the control scheme are given when the transmission probability of SARS patients is in the peak period. These conclusions are not only very important for the optimization of SARS prevention and control scheme, but also have extensive universal significance for the epidemiology and control strategy research of other epidemic diseases.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：R181.3
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 陈之强;马祖军;;人工干扰下重大传染病扩散演化的仿真研究——以非典为例[J];西南交通大学学报(社会科学版);2011年04期
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 刘淼;突发性传染病爆发事件扩散路径研究[D];大连理工大学;2010年
2 陈之强;突发公共卫生事件扩散演化机理及协同应急管理机制研究[D];西南交通大学;2011年
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