肾综合征出血热的气象流行病学理论与分析方法的研究
发布时间：2018-08-16 19:30
【摘要】：全球气候变暖和极端气候事件频发已成为人类面临的重大环境问题之一,全球气候变化及其引发的生态环境的改变,是传染病发病率上升、流行区域扩大、流行季节延长的重要原因。在受气候变化影响较大的传染病中,尤以媒介传播疾病最为突出。通过研究传染病与气象因素的关系,揭示各种传染病的气象流行病学规律,可为预防和控制传染病提供科学依据。肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)是由汉坦病毒(HV)引起的多宿主自然疫源性疾病,也是我国重点防治的传染病之一,其发生和流行与气象因素密切相关。遵循流行病学的基本原理,运用气象流行病学方法探索HFRS流行动态与气象因素的定量关系,对进一步揭示HFRS的流行病学和生态学机制,预测其流行趋势和制订科学有效的预防措施,有重要的理论价值和实践意义。 气象流行病学是运用气象学和流行病学的原理与方法研究有关气象条件、气候变化与疾病和健康的相互关系,探讨影响疾病发生和流行的气象学因素及其作用机制,针对各种气候变化和气象灾害科学地制定预防疾病发生和控制流行的措施提供依据的一门流行病学分支学科。气象流行病学的研究方法包括横向研究和纵向研究,但目前的研究多为纵向研究。纵向研究是利用某疫区的疫情和相关因素的时间序列资料进行病因探索,其重点是研究某些影响因素与疾病流行强度在时间尺度上的动态变化,揭示它们之间的作用舰律。现有的关于HFRS与气象因素关系的纵向研究的分析方法多局限于简单相关、多元线性回归、多元逐步判别等传统的多元统计方法。这些方法存在以下不足:首先,只能定性地说明哪些气象因素与发病率有关,而不能定量地分析气象因素的作用大小;其次,难以控制混杂因素,导致文献报道结果不一致和难以比较。本研
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of global climate change and extreme climate events has become one of the major environmental problems facing mankind. Global climate change and the ecological environment change caused by it are the increasing incidence of infectious diseases and the expansion of epidemic areas. An important reason for the prolongation of the epidemic season. Among the major infectious diseases affected by climate change, vector-borne diseases are the most prominent. By studying the relationship between infectious diseases and meteorological factors, this paper reveals the laws of meteorological epidemiology of various infectious diseases, which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hemorrhagic fever with renal) is a multi-host natural epidemic disease caused by Hantavirus (HV). It is also one of the most important infectious diseases in China. The occurrence and prevalence of HFRS are closely related to meteorological factors. Following the basic principles of epidemiology, the quantitative relationship between the epidemic dynamics of HFRS and meteorological factors was explored by means of meteorological epidemiology, and the epidemiological and ecological mechanisms of HFRS were further revealed. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to predict its epidemic trend and formulate scientific and effective preventive measures. Meteorological epidemiology is to use the principles and methods of meteorology and epidemiology to study meteorological conditions, the interrelationship between climate change and disease and health, and to explore the meteorological factors affecting the occurrence and prevalence of diseases and their mechanism of action. A branch of epidemiology that provides scientific basis for the prevention of diseases and the control of epidemics in view of climate change and meteorological disasters. The research methods of meteorological epidemiology include horizontal and longitudinal studies, but most of the current studies are longitudinal. Longitudinal study is based on the time series data of epidemic situation and related factors in an epidemic area. The emphasis of this study is to study the dynamic changes of some influencing factors and epidemic intensity in time scale, and to reveal the law of action between them. Most of the existing longitudinal analysis methods on the relationship between HFRS and meteorological factors are limited to simple correlation, multiple linear regression, multiple stepwise discrimination and other traditional multivariate statistical methods. These methods have the following shortcomings: first, they can only describe qualitatively which meteorological factors are related to morbidity, but not quantitatively analyze the magnitude of the effects of meteorological factors; secondly, it is difficult to control confounding factors. The results of literature reports are inconsistent and difficult to compare. This research institute
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2005
【分类号】：R181.3
本文编号：2186958
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of global climate change and extreme climate events has become one of the major environmental problems facing mankind. Global climate change and the ecological environment change caused by it are the increasing incidence of infectious diseases and the expansion of epidemic areas. An important reason for the prolongation of the epidemic season. Among the major infectious diseases affected by climate change, vector-borne diseases are the most prominent. By studying the relationship between infectious diseases and meteorological factors, this paper reveals the laws of meteorological epidemiology of various infectious diseases, which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hemorrhagic fever with renal) is a multi-host natural epidemic disease caused by Hantavirus (HV). It is also one of the most important infectious diseases in China. The occurrence and prevalence of HFRS are closely related to meteorological factors. Following the basic principles of epidemiology, the quantitative relationship between the epidemic dynamics of HFRS and meteorological factors was explored by means of meteorological epidemiology, and the epidemiological and ecological mechanisms of HFRS were further revealed. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to predict its epidemic trend and formulate scientific and effective preventive measures. Meteorological epidemiology is to use the principles and methods of meteorology and epidemiology to study meteorological conditions, the interrelationship between climate change and disease and health, and to explore the meteorological factors affecting the occurrence and prevalence of diseases and their mechanism of action. A branch of epidemiology that provides scientific basis for the prevention of diseases and the control of epidemics in view of climate change and meteorological disasters. The research methods of meteorological epidemiology include horizontal and longitudinal studies, but most of the current studies are longitudinal. Longitudinal study is based on the time series data of epidemic situation and related factors in an epidemic area. The emphasis of this study is to study the dynamic changes of some influencing factors and epidemic intensity in time scale, and to reveal the law of action between them. Most of the existing longitudinal analysis methods on the relationship between HFRS and meteorological factors are limited to simple correlation, multiple linear regression, multiple stepwise discrimination and other traditional multivariate statistical methods. These methods have the following shortcomings: first, they can only describe qualitatively which meteorological factors are related to morbidity, but not quantitatively analyze the magnitude of the effects of meteorological factors; secondly, it is difficult to control confounding factors. The results of literature reports are inconsistent and difficult to compare. This research institute
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2005
【分类号】：R181.3
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 叶剑雄;《内经》运气理论研究[D];北京中医药大学;2012年
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