太原市法定传染病发病趋势监测与分析

发布时间：2018-10-31 15:15

【摘要】： 目的随疾病谱的变化传染病虽不再居首位,但肺结核,病毒性肝炎、淋病、梅毒等老病死灰复燃,开始回升和蔓延,再次卷土重来。了解这些疾病的发病趋势,从理论上探索其流行规律,预测发生发展变化变化趋势,有的放矢的采取相应的干预措施,具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。有关传染病模型研究已广泛引起关注,为掌握我市传染病的流行趋势,评价预防控制措施效果,尝试用ARIMA模型和灰色模型为分析方法,建立痢疾和肺结核疫情动态模型,探讨其在我市疾病预防控制中的实际应用价值,为制定科学、有效的防制措施提供理论依据。方法收集太原市1994年--2003年传染病疫情报表和人口资料。描述1994-2003年各种传染病的发病水平及病种分布状况,全面了解不同传染病的动态变化趋势。应用ARIMA模型对太原市痢疾发病水平进行模型拟合与评价,并建立太原市肺结核发病率的灰色模型GM(1,1)。结果1.痢疾、病毒性肝炎、肺结核、淋病和梅毒等五种传染病已成为近年影响我市人群健康和生活质量的主要传染病;太原市1994-2003年的传染病总发病水平维持在317.41/10万左右,呈下降趋势。1999年以后下降速度较快,表明近10年中各种传染病控制效果较好,尤其是1999年以后控疫效果显著;痢疾发病呈现下降趋势,有明显的季节性,下降速度平缓,提示在高峰季节应加大控疫力度;病毒性肝炎1997年前是以甲肝发病为主,发病率呈现下降趋势;乙肝的发病呈不规则波动,有明显的上升趋势,1998年后成为病毒性肝炎的主要病型,可见在今后应将乙肝的防制做为传染病防制的重中之重; 1997-2003年肺结核发病大幅度上升,速度呈直线上升趋势,提示遏制结核病行动刻不容缓;淋病与梅毒发病趋势基本一致,1999年呈现一个高峰,但淋病的变化趋势较平稳,而梅毒呈上升趋势,变化速度也较淋病大,防制性传播疾病仍是一个持久不懈的任务。 2.经痢疾发病时序资料分析所建ARIMA(1,0,0) (0,1,1)模型拟合效果较好,能较准确地预测痢疾发病趋势。 3.灰色模型GM(1,1)拟合肺结核发病情况效果较好,可以对肺结核的发病水平进行预测预报。结论1.太原市1994-2003年的传染病发病状况,总发病水平维持在317.41/10万左右,呈下降趋势;主要传染病为痢疾、病毒性肝炎、肺结核、淋病和梅毒,其中,乙肝和肺结核呈上升趋势,痢疾、甲肝、淋病和梅毒呈下降趋势。10年来,各种传染病得到较好控制,特别是1999年以后控疫效果显著。预示肺结核和乙肝的防制将是今后的重点工作。 2.应用ARIMA模型和灰色模型GM(1,1)对痢疾和肺结核发病率所建模型,拟合效果较好,有一定的实用价值,从而能为制定我市传染病防制措施提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Objective with the change of disease spectrum, infectious diseases are no longer the first, but tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, gonorrhea, syphilis and other old diseases recur, begin to rise and spread, and come back again. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to understand the incidence trend of these diseases, to explore their epidemic law theoretically, to predict the trend of development and change, and to take corresponding intervention measures. In order to understand the epidemic trend of infectious diseases and evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures, the dynamic models of dysentery and tuberculosis were established by using ARIMA model and grey model as analysis methods. To explore its practical application value in disease prevention and control in our city, to provide theoretical basis for scientific and effective prevention and control measures. Methods the epidemic report and population data of infectious diseases were collected from 1994 to 2003 in Taiyuan. The incidence level and distribution of various infectious diseases from 1994 to 2003 were described, and the dynamic trends of different infectious diseases were comprehensively understood. The ARIMA model was used to fit and evaluate the incidence level of dysentery in Taiyuan, and the grey model GM (1 / 1) was established for the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Taiyuan. Result 1. Dysentery, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, gonorrhea and syphilis have become the main infectious diseases affecting the health and quality of life of the population in our city in recent years. The total incidence level of infectious diseases in Taiyuan City from 1994 to 2003 was maintained at about 317.41 / 100 million, showing a downward trend. After 1999, the rate of decline was relatively fast, which indicated that the control effect of various infectious diseases in the recent 10 years was better, especially after 1999, the effect of epidemic control was remarkable. The incidence of dysentery showed a downward trend with obvious seasonality and a slow decreasing rate, indicating that the epidemic control should be intensified in the peak season, and the incidence of viral hepatitis was mainly due to hepatitis A before 1997, and the incidence rate showed a downward trend. The incidence of hepatitis B is irregular and fluctuating, and has an obvious upward trend. Since 1998, it has become the main type of viral hepatitis, so we should take the prevention and control of hepatitis B as the most important part of the prevention and control of infectious diseases in the future. From 1997 to 2003, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased by a large margin, and the rate of tuberculosis increased in a straight line, suggesting that the action to curb tuberculosis is urgent. The trend of gonorrhea and syphilis was basically consistent, showing a peak in 1999, but the changing trend of gonorrhea was stable, while the trend of syphilis was on the rise, and the rate of change was larger than that of gonorrhea, so it was still a persistent task to prevent and control sexually transmitted diseases. 2. The fitting effect of the ARIMA (1 / 0 / 0) (0 / 1) model based on the analysis of the time series data of dysentery incidence is good, and it can accurately predict the incidence trend of dysentery. 3. The grey model GM (1 / 1) can be used to predict the incidence level of pulmonary tuberculosis. Conclusion 1. The incidence of infectious diseases in Taiyuan City from 1994 to 2003 was maintained at about 317.41 / 100000, which showed a downward trend. The main infectious diseases are dysentery, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, gonorrhea and syphilis. Among them, hepatitis B and tuberculosis show an upward trend, while dysentery, hepatitis A, gonorrhea and syphilis show a downward trend. Over the past 10 years, various infectious diseases have been better controlled. Especially after 1999, the effect of epidemic control was remarkable. Foreshadowing tuberculosis and hepatitis B prevention and control will be the focus of work in the future. 2. The application of ARIMA model and grey model GM (1 + 1) to the model of incidence of dysentery and tuberculosis has a good fitting effect and has certain practical value, which can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of measures for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in our city.
【学位授予单位】：山西医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：R181.8

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