鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险研究
发布时间：2019-01-25 07:30
【摘要】： 进入21世纪,社会发展伴随着各种危机,人类已步入充满诸多不确定因素的风险社会。SARS疫情的暴发、禽流感疫情与甲型H1N1流感的流行等突发性公共卫生事件迫使我们必须更加科学地对待这些风险。 2003年以来,高致病性禽流感在全球不同国家和地区频频暴发,疫情范围不断扩大,不仅对全球和区域内造成重大经济损失,而且对人类生命安全及生态环境造成严重威胁,引起了社会各界的关注。禽流感是禽鸟中由A型流感病毒菌株引起的一种传染病,其发生、传播与自然条件、候鸟、疫情态势、家禽养殖、水稻种植及禽类产品运输贸易有密切关系。 鄱阳湖是中国最大的淡水湖泊,是全球候鸟重要的越冬栖息地。鄱阳湖区是全国水稻主要种植区之一,家禽养殖条件优越,人工饲养野鸭比重较大,区内外交通通达水平较高,具有国内较大的禽蛋产品交易市场。 论文在分析禽流感发生与传播研究现状,综述禽流感风险及其影响的基础上,结合在鄱阳湖区野外调查与农户访谈收集整理的数据资料,确定了鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险因素,建立了基于鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险的指标体系,运用多指标综合评分法通过模型计算鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险概率值,提出了若干预防与控制禽流感在本区暴发的措施建议。 通过对鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险分析,得出以下结论: (1)建立了由总目标层、目标要素层、准则层与指标层组成的鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险评价指标体系。其中目标要素层包括自然因素与人为因素;准则层包含了生态环境因素、候鸟因素、本地及周边地区疫情因素、饲养模式因素、交通贸易因素、屠宰加工因素、预防与控制因素共7项风险因素;指标层包含了23个子风险因素。 (2)通过层次分析法并运用层次分析法软件计算出各子风险因素的权重值。根据权重值划分风险等级,确定高风险因素为周边当前疫情;较高风险因素有六个:分别为家禽免疫密度、本地以前疫情、候鸟与家禽接触、屠宰场废弃物处理、疫情突发防控能力与早期检测诊断水平。 (3)运用多指标综合评分方法通过计算模型求出了鄱阳湖区禽流感发生风险的概率,初步认为鄱阳湖区属于高风险区。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, social development is accompanied by various crises. Human beings have stepped into a risky society full of many uncertain factors. The outbreak of SARS epidemic situation, Sudden public health events, such as avian influenza and H1N1 influenza, force us to deal with these risks more scientifically. Since 2003, the highly pathogenic avian influenza has frequently broken out in different countries and regions of the world, and the epidemic scope has been continuously expanded, which not only causes great economic losses to the whole world and within the region, but also poses a serious threat to the safety of human life and the ecological environment. Has aroused the attention of all walks of life. Avian influenza is an infectious disease caused by influenza A strain in birds. Its occurrence and transmission are closely related to natural conditions, migratory birds, epidemic situation, poultry farming, rice cultivation and poultry product transport trade. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and an important winter habitat for migratory birds in the world. Poyang Lake region is one of the main rice growing areas in China. The poultry breeding conditions are superior, the proportion of artificial wild ducks is large, the level of transportation in and out of the area is relatively high, and there is a large domestic market for poultry and egg products. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of avian influenza occurrence and transmission, summarizing the risk of avian influenza and its influence, combining the data collected by field investigation and peasant household interview in Poyang Lake region, the paper determines the risk factors of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region. Based on the index system of avian influenza occurrence risk in Poyang Lake region, the risk probability value of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region was calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and some measures to prevent and control bird flu outbreak in Poyang Lake region were put forward. Based on the risk analysis of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the risk assessment index system of avian influenza occurrence in Poyang Lake region is established, which is composed of total target layer, target element layer, criterion layer and index layer. The target elements include natural factors and human factors. The criterion layer includes seven risk factors, including ecological environment factors, migratory birds factors, epidemic situation factors in local and surrounding areas, breeding mode factors, traffic and trade factors, slaughtering and processing factors, prevention and control factors. The indicator layer contains 23 sub-risk factors. (2) the weight of each sub-risk factor is calculated by AHP and AHP software. According to the weight value, the high risk factors are determined to be the current epidemic situation. There are six higher risk factors: poultry immune density, local epidemic situation, contact between migratory birds and poultry, slaughterhouse waste disposal, outbreak prevention and control ability and early detection and diagnosis level. (3) the probability of avian influenza risk in Poyang Lake region is calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and it is preliminarily considered that Poyang Lake region belongs to high risk area.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：S855;R184
本文编号：2414929
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, social development is accompanied by various crises. Human beings have stepped into a risky society full of many uncertain factors. The outbreak of SARS epidemic situation, Sudden public health events, such as avian influenza and H1N1 influenza, force us to deal with these risks more scientifically. Since 2003, the highly pathogenic avian influenza has frequently broken out in different countries and regions of the world, and the epidemic scope has been continuously expanded, which not only causes great economic losses to the whole world and within the region, but also poses a serious threat to the safety of human life and the ecological environment. Has aroused the attention of all walks of life. Avian influenza is an infectious disease caused by influenza A strain in birds. Its occurrence and transmission are closely related to natural conditions, migratory birds, epidemic situation, poultry farming, rice cultivation and poultry product transport trade. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and an important winter habitat for migratory birds in the world. Poyang Lake region is one of the main rice growing areas in China. The poultry breeding conditions are superior, the proportion of artificial wild ducks is large, the level of transportation in and out of the area is relatively high, and there is a large domestic market for poultry and egg products. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of avian influenza occurrence and transmission, summarizing the risk of avian influenza and its influence, combining the data collected by field investigation and peasant household interview in Poyang Lake region, the paper determines the risk factors of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region. Based on the index system of avian influenza occurrence risk in Poyang Lake region, the risk probability value of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region was calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and some measures to prevent and control bird flu outbreak in Poyang Lake region were put forward. Based on the risk analysis of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the risk assessment index system of avian influenza occurrence in Poyang Lake region is established, which is composed of total target layer, target element layer, criterion layer and index layer. The target elements include natural factors and human factors. The criterion layer includes seven risk factors, including ecological environment factors, migratory birds factors, epidemic situation factors in local and surrounding areas, breeding mode factors, traffic and trade factors, slaughtering and processing factors, prevention and control factors. The indicator layer contains 23 sub-risk factors. (2) the weight of each sub-risk factor is calculated by AHP and AHP software. According to the weight value, the high risk factors are determined to be the current epidemic situation. There are six higher risk factors: poultry immune density, local epidemic situation, contact between migratory birds and poultry, slaughterhouse waste disposal, outbreak prevention and control ability and early detection and diagnosis level. (3) the probability of avian influenza risk in Poyang Lake region is calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and it is preliminarily considered that Poyang Lake region belongs to high risk area.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：S855;R184
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 白裕兵;浦华;;禽流感防控经济学研究综述[J];中国畜牧杂志;2013年06期
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 李谓娟;厦门市同安区高致病性禽流感免疫抗体监测与分析[D];福建农林大学;2010年
2 江文斌;鹰潭市畜牧业发展与主要动物疫病风险分析[D];江西农业大学;2013年
，本文编号：2414929
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