山东省干旱敏感传染性疾病的初步筛选

发布时间：2019-02-14 07:57

【摘要】：目的筛选山东省干旱敏感的传染性疾病,为旱期传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法比较山东省威海、济宁、临沂、枣庄干旱年与非干旱年甲乙类法定传染病的发病率,对上述地区及所辖县1997—1999年标准化降水指数(SPI)与同期、滞后1~3月的甲乙类法定传染病月发病率进行相关分析。结果干旱年菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝发病率高于非干旱年。SPI在济宁地区与当月菌痢月发病率相关系数最大(rs=-0.392,P=0.018);SPI在威海地区与滞后3月的肾综合征出血热月发病率相关系数最大(rs=-0.552,P0.001),而临沂、济宁、枣庄SPI分别与当月(rs=0.430,P=0.009)、滞后1月(rs=0.384,P=0.021)、当月的发病率(rs=0.445,P=0.007)关系最为密切;SPI在枣庄、临沂地区分别与滞后3月(rs=0.355,P=0.034)、滞后1月的肺结核月发病率(rs=0.469,P=0.004)关系最为密切。基于县级的SPI与菌痢、麻疹月发病率呈负相关,而猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝中,SPI与单病种月发病率相关方向在不同县不完全一致。结论山东省甲乙类法定传染病中菌痢、麻疹、猩红热、肺结核、肾综合征出血热、肝炎(总)、乙肝的发病可能与干旱有关,其中菌疾、麻疹的发病率与干旱程度呈正相关。
[Abstract]:Objective to screen drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Shandong Province and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of drought-related infectious diseases. Methods the incidence of class A and B infectious diseases in Weihai, Jining, Linyi, Zaozhuang and non-arid years in Weihai, Shandong Province was compared. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the above areas and counties was compared with that in the same period. The monthly incidence of class A and B infectious diseases with a lag of 1 ~ 3 months was analyzed. Results the incidence of bacterial dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, haemorrhagic fever, hepatitis B (total) and hepatitis B in drought years were higher than those in non-drought years. The correlation coefficient between SPI and monthly bacterial dysentery in Jining area was the highest (rs=-0.392,P=0.018). The monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (rs=-0.552,P0.001) with SPI in Weihai area was the largest (rs=-0.552,P0.001), while SPI in Linyi, Jining and Zaozhuang was correlated with rs=0.430,P=0.009 and rs=0.384, respectively. The incidence rate (rs=0.445,P=0.007) was the most closely related in that month. SPI in Zaozhuang and Linyi area was most closely related to the monthly incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis (rs=0.469,P=0.004), which was delayed by 3 months (rs=0.355,P=0.034) and 1 month respectively. Based on county level SPI and bacillary dysentery, the monthly incidence of measles was negatively correlated, while scarlet fever, pulmonary tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total), hepatitis B, SPI and the monthly incidence of single disease were not completely consistent in different counties. Conclusion the incidence of bacillary dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total) and hepatitis B may be related to drought in Shandong Province.
【作者单位】： 山东大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;山东省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955502) 山东大学自主创新基金(2012TS087) 山东大学公共卫生学院青年人才创新基金(201101)
【分类号】：R181.3
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本文编号：2422003