突发性传染病爆发事件扩散路径研究
发布时间：2019-03-03 12:58
【摘要】： 近几年,突发公共卫生事件的频繁爆发,不仅阻碍了社会、经济的健康发展,而且危及到社会稳定。我国公共卫生部门在处理这些突发事件时,意识到中国在突发公共卫生事件的危机意识、决策机制、组织协调和防疫控制等方面存在着明显的不足。因此,本文从细节着眼,将问题聚焦在突发性传染病爆发事件的扩散问题上所研究的扩散路径能够给有关部门处理类似突发公共卫生事件提供建议,做到防患于未然。 本文以危机管理理论、事件链理论和突发事件扩散机理为基础,通过对突发性传染病的性质、成因、特点和影响因素进行分析,得到突发性传染病爆发后可能会随之发生的次生事件以及次生事件之间的相互作用。本文调查问卷中所用到的量表依据Likert量表的制作原理进行设计,依据原始数据,使用LISREL软件计算原始数据的协方差,绘制突发性传染病爆发事件的扩散路径图,根据t值原则进行参数估计,先后删除系数不显著的路径,重新进行分析过程,依据得出的拟合优度分析报告判断是否终止模型的调整,最终导出突发性传染病爆发事件的扩散路径。 由分析得到的突发性传染病爆发事件的扩散路径可知,当突发性传染病爆发后,会导致谣言传播、居民染病和疫苗研究等三个一级次生事件,而谣言传播又会导致药品抢购二级次生事件,居民染病会导致医院救治能力不足、人员死亡和集会限制等三个二级次生事件。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent outbreak of public health incidents not only hinders the healthy development of society and economy, but also endangers the social stability. In dealing with these emergencies, China's public health departments are aware of the obvious deficiencies in the crisis consciousness, decision-making mechanism, organization and coordination, and epidemic prevention and control of public health emergencies in China. Therefore, from the point of view of detail, this paper focuses on the problem of the spread of sudden outbreak of infectious diseases, which can provide suggestions for the relevant departments to deal with similar sudden public health events, so as to prevent and prevent from happening in the first place. Based on the theory of crisis management, the theory of event chain and the mechanism of sudden event diffusion, this paper analyzes the nature, causes, characteristics and influencing factors of sudden infectious diseases. The secondary events and the interactions between the secondary events that may occur after the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases are obtained. The scale used in the questionnaire is designed according to the production principle of the Likert scale. According to the original data, the covariance of the original data is calculated by using the LISREL software, and the diffusion path map of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is drawn. According to the t-value principle, the parameter estimation is carried out, the path with the coefficient is deleted successively, the analysis process is re-carried out, and the adjustment of the model is judged according to the obtained goodness-of-fit analysis report. Finally, the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is derived. According to the analysis of the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases, it can be seen that the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases will lead to the spread of rumors, the infection of residents and the study of vaccines, which are three primary secondary events. The spread of rumors will lead to the second-level secondary events of drug purchase, and the infection of residents will lead to three secondary events, such as inadequate capacity of hospital treatment, death of personnel and restriction of assembly.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：R184
本文编号：2433717
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent outbreak of public health incidents not only hinders the healthy development of society and economy, but also endangers the social stability. In dealing with these emergencies, China's public health departments are aware of the obvious deficiencies in the crisis consciousness, decision-making mechanism, organization and coordination, and epidemic prevention and control of public health emergencies in China. Therefore, from the point of view of detail, this paper focuses on the problem of the spread of sudden outbreak of infectious diseases, which can provide suggestions for the relevant departments to deal with similar sudden public health events, so as to prevent and prevent from happening in the first place. Based on the theory of crisis management, the theory of event chain and the mechanism of sudden event diffusion, this paper analyzes the nature, causes, characteristics and influencing factors of sudden infectious diseases. The secondary events and the interactions between the secondary events that may occur after the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases are obtained. The scale used in the questionnaire is designed according to the production principle of the Likert scale. According to the original data, the covariance of the original data is calculated by using the LISREL software, and the diffusion path map of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is drawn. According to the t-value principle, the parameter estimation is carried out, the path with the coefficient is deleted successively, the analysis process is re-carried out, and the adjustment of the model is judged according to the obtained goodness-of-fit analysis report. Finally, the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is derived. According to the analysis of the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases, it can be seen that the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases will lead to the spread of rumors, the infection of residents and the study of vaccines, which are three primary secondary events. The spread of rumors will lead to the second-level secondary events of drug purchase, and the infection of residents will lead to three secondary events, such as inadequate capacity of hospital treatment, death of personnel and restriction of assembly.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：R184
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 祝江斌;重大传染病疫情地方政府应对能力研究[D];武汉理工大学;2011年
，本文编号：2433717
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