某市2004-2008年麻疹流行特征的研究

发布时间：2019-06-01 15:31

【摘要】： 目地：分析某市2004-2008年麻疹流行的基本特征、防治效果及发病规律,探讨影响麻疹发病的主要因素,为制定2012年消除麻疹策略提供科学依据。方法：利用《疾病监测信息报告管理系统》(DRS)与《麻疹专报系统》(MSS)收集的某市2004-2008年的麻疹资料,比较两系统的敏感性和资料的可靠性；利用《麻疹专报系统》(MSS系统)收集的麻疹资料,用Excel2003和SPSS13.0统计软件,对麻疹发病资料用圆形分布法分析发病的高峰日和高峰期、并用Rayleigh法进行检验；用x2检验分析某市2004-2008年麻疹发病的时间、人群和地区分布特点；用Logistic回归分析影响麻疹发病的主要影响因素。结果：《麻疹专报系统》相对《疾病监测信息报告管理系统》而言具有较高的敏感性。2004-2008年麻疹年平均发病率7.18／10万,2008年为10.36／10万。2004-2008年麻疹发病高峰时间为3月-7月,报告病例数约占总病例数的82.44%；15岁以下儿童发病占总病例数的85.13%；发病地区分布,城市(19.6／10万)高于农村(3.38／10万)。在2004-2008年全部麻疹病例中,有免疫史的占45.59%。流动人口中的麻疹发病率为44.47／10万,高于全人群的麻疹发病率；流动人口主要分布在芦淞、荷塘、石峰等几个经济较发达地区,流动人口麻疹病例中有免疫史的占全部流动人口病例的38.43%(103／268),低于本地病例中有免疫史者的比例(47.38%)；麻疹发病危险因素分别为居住城区、男性、流动人口和无免疫史(P0.05)。结论：某市2004-2008年麻疹发病时间呈现明显的季节性；发病年龄以15岁以下儿童为主,8月龄病例所占比例有逐年增加趋势；城市发病率高于农村；流动人口发病率高于全人群发病率,流动人口主要集中在城区。居住城区、男性、流动人口、无免疫史为麻疹发病的主要危险因素。
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the basic characteristics, control effect and incidence law of measles epidemic in a city from 2004 to 2008, and to explore the main factors affecting measles incidence, so as to provide scientific basis for the formulation of measles elimination strategy in 2012. Methods: the sensitivity and reliability of the two systems were compared by using the measles data collected from 2004 to 2008 in a city by using the Disease Surveillance Information reporting Management system (DRS) and the measles Special report system (MSS). Using the measles data collected by the measles Special report system (MSS system) and Excel2003 and SPSS13.0 statistical software, the peak day and peak period of measles incidence were analyzed by circular distribution method, and tested by Rayleigh method. The incidence time, population and regional distribution characteristics of measles in a city from 2004 to 2008 were analyzed by x2 test, and the main influencing factors of measles incidence were analyzed by Logistic regression analysis. Results: the measles special reporting system was highly sensitive to the disease surveillance information reporting management system. The average annual incidence of measles from 2004 to 2008 was 7.18 / 100000. In 2008, it was 10.36 / 100000. The peak time of measles incidence from 2004 to 2008 was from March to July, and the number of reported cases accounted for 82.44% of the total number of cases. The incidence of children under 15 years old accounted for 85.13% of the total cases, and the distribution of cases in urban areas (19.6 / 100000) was higher than that in rural areas (3.38 / 100000). Among all measles cases from 2004 to 2008, 45.59% had a history of immunization. The incidence of measles in floating population was 44.47 / 100000, which was higher than that in the whole population. The floating population is mainly distributed in Lusong, Hetang, Shifeng and other economically developed areas. 38.43% (103 / 268) of the floating population have immunization history in measles cases. Lower than the proportion of local cases with immunization history (47.38%); The risk factors of measles were urban area, male, floating population and non-immune history (P 0.05). Conclusion: the incidence time of measles in a city from 2004 to 2008 is obviously seasonal, the onset age is mainly children under 15 years old, the proportion of cases aged 8 months has an increasing trend year by year, the incidence rate in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas, and the incidence rate in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas. The incidence of floating population is higher than that of the whole population, and the floating population is mainly concentrated in urban areas. Living in urban areas, male, floating population, no history of immunization is the main risk factors for measles.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：R511.1;R181.3

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