基于移动百分位数法流感预警模型的探讨

发布时间：2019-07-10 16:39

【摘要】：目的建立基于移动百分位数法的流感预警模型,探讨最佳预警界值。方法采用不同百分位数P作为候选预警界值,对某省2006-2009年流感的周病例报告数进行分析,筛选最佳预警界值;采用2010年流感监测数据验证模型的预警判别效能。结果流感暴发流行的最佳预警界值为P85,灵敏度为94.12%,特异度为88.89%,ROC曲线下面积为0.915(95%CI:0.804~0.974)。实证研究显示,在P85的预警界值下,该模型的灵敏度为73.68%,特异度为93.94%,阳性预测值为87.50%,阴性预测值为86.11%,ROC曲线下面积为0.838(95%CI:0.710~0.925)。结论在P85的预警界值下,基于移动百分位数法的模型具有较好的预测判别效能。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish an influenza early warning model based on moving percentile method and to explore the best early warning value. Methods using different percentile P as candidate early warning boundary value, the weekly case report number of influenza in a province from 2006 to 2009 was analyzed, and the best early warning threshold value was selected, and the early warning discriminant effect of the model was verified by influenza surveillance data in 2010. Results the best warning limit value of influenza outbreak was P85, the sensitivity was 94.12%, the specificity was 88.89%, and the area under ROC curve was 0.915 (95%CI:0.804~0.974). The empirical study showed that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the model were 73.68%, 93.94%, 87.50% and 86.11%, respectively, and the area under ROC curve was 0.838 (95%CI:0.710~0.925). Conclusion under the early warning threshold of P85, the model based on moving percentile method has better prediction and discrimination efficiency.
【作者单位】：郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;河南省疾病预防控制中心传染病所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(81001293) 郑州大学全国大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2011cxsy173)
【分类号】：R181.2

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