健康管理人群2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型

发布时间：2018-05-01 07:47

  本文选题：型糖尿病 + 风险预测模型　； 参考：《山东大学学报(医学版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：目的构建健康管理人群2型糖尿病3年发病风险预测模型。方法依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察大数据库,选择20~75岁的基线未患2型糖尿病者构建队列。采用Cox比例风险回归构建2型糖尿病预测模型,以受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型的预测效能,以十折交叉验证法检验模型的稳定性。结果随访期间共新发糖尿病1 624例,男性和女性的发病密度分别为15.00‰、10.83‰。男性预测模型最终纳入的变量包括年龄、体质量指数、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、谷丙转氨酶、白细胞计数。纳入女性预测模型的变量包括年龄、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、高密度脂蛋白、谷丙转氨酶。男性和女性预测模型的AUC分别为0.795(95%CI:0.764~0.827)和0.707(95%CI:0.654~0.759)。结论分性别建立的2型糖尿病发病风险预测模型在健康管理人群中均具有较好预测能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a 3-year risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes mellitus in health management population. Methods based on the large longitudinal observation database of Shandong multi-center health management, a cohort of 20 ~ 75 years old patients without type 2 diabetes mellitus was selected to construct a cohort. The predictive model of type 2 diabetes mellitus was constructed by Cox proportional risk regression. The predictive effectiveness of the model was evaluated by the area under the operating characteristic curve, and the stability of the model was tested by a ten fold cross-validation method. Results during the follow-up period, 1 624 cases of new diabetes mellitus were found, the incidence density of male and female were 15.00 鈥，

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