某三甲医院神经内科急诊人次的时间序列分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 08:50

本文选题：急诊人次 + 预测　；参考：《山西医科大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的:回顾性分析及探索山西医科大学第一医院神经内科急诊就诊人次的变化规律及发展趋势,分析可能因素如环境、气象指标及重大事件等与神经科疾病发生发展的关系,建立时间序列模型并进行预测,让医院及科室管理者制订管理办法有据可依。方法:统计山西医科大学第一医院2010年1月至2015年12月神经内科急诊就诊人次数据,分析就诊高峰时段、季节规律及年度趋势等特点,建立适用的时间序列模型并对2016年1-6月神经内科急诊人次进行预测。结果:最终确定模型ARIMA(1,1,1)×(1,1,1)12为预测模型适,具体形式为:(1-1.055390B12)(1-0.849107B)(1-B)(1-B12)Zt=(1+0.606245B)(1+0.853169B12)at。24小时就诊节律:①1、2、3月及11、12月早7-8时就诊病人开始增加,其余月份为6-7时;②第一个就诊高峰出现在9-11时,二次就诊高峰出现在19-22时;③凌晨小高峰在气温较低的月份出现在3-4时,相对温暖月份为4-5时。季节规律:①2月份就诊人次全年最低;②全年中的两个就诊高峰分别是3-5月和8-10月;③2013年就诊人次曲线波动较大。结论:SARIMA模型预测效果较理想,可用于急诊人次的短期预测并推广至临床各科;我院神经内科急诊人次在近年将保持2-4%的年增长率,医院应适当扩充急诊室面积、改善接诊环境。从24小时就诊节律和季节规律看:神经内科急诊就诊人次受气象因素及生活饮食习惯影响较大;山大医院急诊护理人员轮班制度安排基本合理。
[Abstract]:Objective: to retrospectively analyze and explore the change rule and development trend of emergency attendance in Department of Neurology, the first Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, and to analyze the relationship between the possible factors such as environment, meteorological indexes and major events and the occurrence and development of neurologic diseases. Time series model is established and predicted, so that hospital and department managers can draw up management methods according to the evidence. Methods: from January 2010 to December 2015, the first Hospital of Shanxi Medical University analyzed the characteristics of peak period, seasonal pattern and annual trend of emergency visits to the Department of Neurology. To establish a suitable time series model and predict the number of emergency patients in neurology department from January to June 2016. Results: the model ARIMA (1 / 1 / 1) 脳 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 12 is suitable for predicting the model, in the form of: 1 / 1. 055390B / 12 / 1-0.849107 / 1 / h / h, 1 / b / 12 / 1 / 1 / 0.606245B)(1 0.853169B12)at.24 / h, 1 / 11 / 11, 7 / 8 / 12 and 7 / 8 / 12, respectively, and the first peak in the remaining months is 6-7 / 7 / 2 / 9 / 11, and the first peak appears at 9 / 11 / 9 / 11, respectively, in the morning of 7 / 8 / 12, and the first peak of the first peak in the remaining months is at 9 / 11, respectively. The second visit peak appeared at 19-22 o'clock and the small peak in the early morning appeared at 3-4 hours in the lower temperature month and 4-5 in the relative warm month. The two peaks in the whole year were 3-5 months and 8-10 months, respectively, and in 2013, the curve of the number of visits fluctuated greatly. Conclusion the prediction effect of the "1: SARIMA" model is satisfactory, and it can be used to predict the number of emergency patients in the short term and be extended to all clinical departments, and the annual growth rate of emergency cases in our hospital will be 2-4% in recent years, so the hospital should expand the emergency room area appropriately and improve the visiting environment. From the point of view of 24-hour rhythm and seasonal regularity, the emergency attendance in neurology department was greatly affected by meteorological factors and daily eating habits, and the shift system of emergency nursing staff in Shanda Hospital was basically reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：山西医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R197.3;R741

【参考文献】