基于体检指标建立的脑动脉硬化预测评分系统

发布时间：2018-11-03 10:31

【摘要】：目的探索联合多个体检指标建立脑动脉硬化预测模型及评分系统,并评价该预测模型及评分系统。方法根据经颅多普勒超声(TCD)结果将1 325例健康体检人群分为非脑动脉硬化组767例和脑动脉硬化组558例。对其进行问卷调查及收集体检指标,使用多因素Logistic回归模型建立脑动脉硬化的预测模型,进一步探索建立脑动脉硬化的预测评分系统。结果选出P0.05的指标6个(包括性别、年龄、脉压、同型半胱氨酸、腰围、吸烟)进行多因素逐步Logistic回归,建立数学模型:Logitistic(PI)=0.232×性别+0.155×吸烟+0.026×年龄+0.005×脉压+0.005×同型半胱氨酸+0.004×腰围-1.029。结合临床资料,选出性别、高血压、颈动脉硬化、糖尿病、吸烟、年龄、同型半胱氨酸、高敏C反应蛋白、脉压和体重指数10项指标建立脑动脉硬化的预测评分系统,总分为10分。结论基于常规体检指标成功建立了脑动脉硬化预测模型和评分系统,值得扩展研究。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a prediction model and scoring system for cerebral arteriosclerosis combined with multiple physical examination indexes, and to evaluate the prediction model and scoring system. Methods according to the results of transcranial Doppler (TCD), 1 325 healthy people were divided into non-cerebral arteriosclerosis group (767 cases) and cerebral arteriosclerosis group (558 cases). Questionnaire survey and physical examination index were collected. The prediction model of cerebral arteriosclerosis was established by using multi-factor Logistic regression model, and the prediction scoring system of cerebral arteriosclerosis was further explored. Results six indexes (including gender, age, pulse pressure, homocysteine, waist circumference, smoking) were selected for stepwise Logistic regression. The mathematical model: Logitistic (PI) = 0.232 脳 sex 0.155 脳 smoking 0.026 脳 age 0.005 脳 pulse pressure 0.005 脳 homocysteine 0.004 脳 waist circumference -1.029 was established. According to the clinical data, 10 indexes including sex, hypertension, carotid atherosclerosis, diabetes, smoking, age, homocysteine, Gao Min C-reactive protein, pulse pressure and body mass index were selected to establish a predictive scoring system for cerebral arteriosclerosis. The total score is 10. Conclusion the prediction model and scoring system of cerebral arteriosclerosis based on routine physical examination are established successfully, which is worthy of extensive study.
【作者单位】：重庆医科大学附属第一医院健康体检部;重庆医科大学附属第一医院神经内科;重庆医科大学附属第一医院检验科;
【基金】：重庆市科委集成示范计划项目(cstc2015jcsf10012-3)
【分类号】：R743

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