竞争风险模型分析缺血性脑卒中戒烟者复吸的影响因素

发布时间：2018-12-15 00:22

【摘要】：目的探讨住院期间戒烟的男性缺血性脑卒中患者出院后复吸的影响因素。方法纳入2010~2014年入住四川大学华西医院神经内科的155例男性缺血性脑卒中戒烟患者进行前瞻性随访研究。采用KaplanMeier法和竞争风险法估计患者复吸的长期趋势,采用竞争风险回归模型探讨复吸的影响因素。结果采用Kaplan-Meier方法计算的累积风险率高于竞争风险计算的累积风险率。考虑竞争风险的情况下,患者出院后4年的累积复吸率为43.1%,并且在出院后3个月、6个月和45个月复吸的风险相对较大。竞争风险回归模型分析结果提示:未婚者(P0.01)、公共场所有被动吸烟者(P=0.01)、每日吸烟数超过20支者(P=0.02)出院后更可能发生复吸。结论在有竞争风险存在的情况下,宜使用竞争风险模型进行分析。针对上述特征幸存者应给予更多的关注或干预措施;同时应加强公共场所禁烟政策的实施。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the influencing factors of relapse in male ischemic stroke patients who quit smoking during hospitalization. Methods 155 male patients with ischemic stroke who were admitted to the Department of Neurology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University from 2010 to 2014, were included in a prospective follow-up study. KaplanMeier method and competitive risk method were used to estimate the long-term trend of relapse, and the competitive risk regression model was used to explore the influencing factors of relapse. Results the cumulative risk rate calculated by Kaplan-Meier method is higher than that by competitive risk calculation. Considering the competitive risk, the cumulative relapse rate of 4 years after discharge was 43.1, and the risk of relapse at 3 months, 6 months and 45 months after discharge was relatively high. The results of competitive risk regression model showed that: unmarried persons (P0.01), passive smokers in public places (P0.01), those who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day (P0. 02) were more likely to relapse after discharge. Conclusion the competitive risk model should be used in the case of competitive risk. More attention or intervention should be given to the survivors of the above characteristics, and the implementation of the smoking ban in public places should be strengthened.
【作者单位】：四川大学华西公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.30600511)资助
【分类号】：R743.3

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