人类活动模式对传播过程影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 00:30

本文选题：复杂网络理论 + 人类活动模式　；参考：《北京邮电大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：本文的主要工作是研究基于复杂网络的人类活动模式和意见动力学对传播过程的影响。本文的传播过程包含了两种传播过程,传染病传播过程和手机短信息传播过程。无论是传染病动力学还是信息动力学,都是国家极为重视的科研课题。这两种传播过程都已经不再是单个学科的研究对象而是扩展为多学科交叉研究的对象。而复杂网络理论在这种多学科交叉研究中拥有极大的优越性。更重要的是,相比经典的传播模型中的均匀混合人群的假设,复杂网络能够更好地体现出真实社会网络所拥有的统计特性。因此,把复杂网络理论和传播模型相结合已经成为研究传播过程的主流趋势。有鉴于此,本文从理论和仿真两个方面在人类活动模式和意见动力学对传播过程的影响方面进行了探索性研究。本文的主要内容为：1)考虑如艾滋病和乙型病毒性肝炎等传染病的无症状感染特性进而提出了一个新的传染病模型——A-SIS模型。由于此类无症状感染特性的存在,很多感染个体认为他们是健康的,而实际上他们已经无症状地感染了某种传染病。因此,在这种情况下,就需要对个体的感染意识状态和物理状态进行区分,而经典传染病模型中并未考虑。所以我们提出这个模型来研究泊松分布和胖尾分布这两种人类行为模式传染病传播过程的影响。研究发现,当这两种人类体检行为模式具有相同的体检频率时,泊松分布的体检模式比胖尾分布的体检模式在控制和消除传染病的传播上更为有效。2)把A-SIS模型和一个基于社会影响理论的意见动力学模型结合在一起,研究与传染病相关的意见动力学对传染病传播的影响。意见动力学的产物对那些已经知道自己感染状态的无症状感染个体的影响可能不仅仅只是降低他们的传播概率,同样也可以增加他们的传播概率。这个假设在传染病动力学、意见动力学和人类行为变化的交互作用的建模研究中很少被考虑到。研究发现,当存在与传染病相关的意见动力学时,较高的个体行为随机性在增加传染病流行程度感的同时也会让感染者面临较低的社会歧视。而且,如果正而的外界的全局影响超过一个临界值时,通过意见动力学可以完全消除传染病。3)比较了短信息在无标度网络、小世界网络和实际的短信息网络三种网络中的传播过程,寻找影响短信息传播的因素。发现网络拓扑结构和手机用户的转发短信行为均会影响短信息传播过程。在无标度网络中短信息传播速率快于小世界网络和实际的短信息网络,而无标度网络的短信息寿命较小世界网络和实际的短信息网络短；网络中手机用户的转发短信行为明显影响短信息的传播过程；同时还发现短信息寿命与网络直径有关。
[Abstract]:The main work of this paper is to study the influence of human activity model and opinion dynamics on the propagation process based on complex networks. The transmission process of this paper includes two transmission processes, infectious disease transmission and mobile phone short message transmission. Whether it is infectious disease dynamics or information dynamics, it is a scientific research subject that the country attaches great importance to. These two communication processes are no longer the research object of a single discipline, but are expanded to a multidisciplinary research object. The theory of complex network has great superiority in this interdisciplinary research. More importantly, compared with the hypothesis of homogeneous mixed population in the classical propagation model, the complex network can better reflect the statistical characteristics of the real social network. Therefore, the combination of complex network theory and propagation model has become the main trend in the research of communication process. In view of this, this paper makes an exploratory study on the influence of human activity mode and opinion dynamics on the propagation process from the aspects of theory and simulation. The main content of this paper is: (1) considering the asymptomatic infection characteristics of infectious diseases such as AIDS and hepatitis B, a new infectious disease model, A-SIS model, is proposed. Because of the nature of such asymptomatic infections, many infected individuals think they are healthy when in fact they are asymptomatic infected with some infectious disease. Therefore, in this case, it is necessary to distinguish the infection consciousness state and the physical state of the individual, but the classical infectious disease model is not considered. So we propose this model to study the effects of Poisson distribution and fat-tailed distribution on the transmission of infectious diseases. The study found that when the two human physical examination behavior patterns have the same frequency of physical examination, The physical examination model of Poisson distribution is more effective in controlling and eliminating the spread of infectious diseases than that of fat-tailed distribution. It combines A-SIS model with an opinion dynamics model based on social impact theory. To study the influence of opinion dynamics related to infectious diseases on the transmission of infectious diseases. The effect of the product of opinion dynamics on asymptomatic infected individuals who already know their infection status may not only reduce their transmission probability, but also increase their transmission probability. This hypothesis is rarely taken into account in modeling the interactions of infectious disease dynamics, opinion dynamics and human behavior changes. The study found that when there is a dynamics of opinion related to infectious diseases, the higher randomness of individual behavior not only increases the prevalence of infectious diseases, but also makes the infected people face lower social discrimination. Moreover, if the positive external global influence exceeds a critical value, the infectious disease. 3 can be eliminated completely by means of opinion dynamics.) the comparison of short messages in scale-free networks is made. The propagation process of small world network and actual short message network is discussed to find the factors that affect short message transmission. It is found that both the network topology and the forwarding behavior of mobile phone users will affect the process of short message transmission. The propagation rate of short message in scale-free network is faster than that in small world network and actual short message network, while the short message life of scale free network is shorter than that of small world network and actual short message network. The behavior of transmitting short messages by mobile phone users in the network obviously affects the transmission process of short messages, and it is also found that the lifetime of short messages is related to the diameter of the network.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：R312;O157.5

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