广州市气象因素对居民死亡影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 14:24

本文选题：气象因素 + 不同死因　；参考：《南方医科大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：研究背景在全球气候变化的议题下,气象因素对健康的影响越来越引起政府、气象研究者和公众的关注。而气候变化会增加极端气象事件(如：热浪、寒流、水灾等)发生频率及持续的时间。以往气象流行病学的研究指出气温对居民死亡有显著影响。但这些研究主要集中在温带的发达国家,而来自发展中国家,尤其是对热带、亚热带地区的相关研究非常稀少。实际上,由于较弱的应对气候变化的能力以及较差的生活环境,这些地区的人群更容易受气候变化的影响。故为了更好的评估气候变化对全人类的影响,来自不同地区,尤其是热带、亚热带地区的研究显得非常必要。以往气象健康研究重点放在气温上,即日均温度、日最高温度和日最低温度,而忽略了其他气象因素,像日温差、相对湿度、大气气压等。其中日温差(日最高温度与日最低温度之差)被认为评估全球气候变化非常重要的气象指标。同样,相对湿度、大气气压也是非常重要的气象因素。目标研究气象因素与广州市居民死亡的关系。其中气象因素包括：日温差、日均温度、相对湿度、大气气压、热浪。本研究还将探讨气温与其它气象因素的交互效应,以及不同气象因素的敏感人群。方法数据来源 2003-2007年死亡数据来自于广东省卫生局,2008-2011年死亡的数据来自广州市疾病预防控制中心。死亡数据包括个体基本信息,如：性别、出生日期、死亡日期、教育程度、职业水平等。气象数据来自于国家气象数据共享中心,其中包括日均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度、相对湿度、大气气压等。而空气污染的数据(如：NO2、SO2、PM10)则来自于广州市环保局。数据分析本研究采用分布滞后非线性模型来评估温度与死亡非线性的关系以及温度滞后效应。日温度、相对湿度、大气气压的影响,同样采用分布滞后非线性模型来拟合,同时控制气温、空气污染、季节趋势和星期几、节假日效应等混杂因素。日温差、相对湿度、大气气压与温度的交互效应,本研究分别用二变量的三次样条函数来拟合。而热浪影响,通过计算热浪超额死亡人数以及热浪时期与对照时期死亡率之比来评估。结果高温的影响急促但一般局限在5天内,而低温的影响可持续12天。高温影响,即气温从第90百分位数变化到第99百分位数引起居民非意外死因的死亡率上升15.46%(95%CI：10.05%-20.87%),而低温影响,即第10百分位数下降到第1百分位数则引起居民非意外死因的死亡率上升20.39%(95%CI：11.78-29.01%)。与非意外死因比较,气温对心脑血管-呼吸系统疾病的患者影响更加显著。在年龄组中,老年人更容易受低温与高温的影响。女性更易受高温的影响。教育程度和职业情况同样是高温与低温的修正效应。日温差的影响急促一般可持续4天。日温差每变化1℃引起居民非意外死因的死亡率上升0.47%(95%CI：0.01%-0.93%)。在不同死因中,中风患者更易受日温差的影响。与男性、年轻人、教育程度相对高的人群比较,女性、老年人、教育程度低下的人群更易受日温差的影响。低于22℃时,气温与日温差存在着交互效应。相对湿度、大气气压与死亡呈现非线性单调的关系。低湿度、低气压是居民死亡危险因素,特别是对心血管疾病的患者。而与小于75岁的年轻人、男性、教育水平高的人群比较,大于75岁的老年人、女性、没接受教育者更易受低湿度、低气压的影响。而气压特别高的时,一样能引起死亡的增加。 2003-2006年,我们得到2005年6月12日到21日共9天的热浪时期。在这个热浪时期,超额死亡人数达到145人。热浪对非意外死因人群有显著影响(RR-1.23,95%CI:1.11-1.37)。而与非意外死因比较,热浪对心血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病患者的影响更加显著。女性、老年人和社会经济地位低下的人群是热浪的敏感人群。结论低温和高温、日温差、低湿度和低气压对居民死亡有显著性影响,导致居民死亡风险增加。在低温时,温度与日温差有交互效应,低湿度、低气压同样与温度存在交互效应。女性、老年人、社会经济地位相对低下者、心脑血管-呼吸系统疾病的患者为本研究气象因素的敏感人群。本研究强调大众加强对气象因素危害防范的重要性。更重要的是,本研究提示即使在亚热带地区,低温同样是死亡重要的危险因素,这为冬天在南方集中供暖的议题提供有力的证据。还有本研究为针对敏感人群提供保护措施和建立热浪和较大日温差的早期预警提供依据。
[Abstract]:Research background
On the issue of global climate change, the impact of meteorological factors on health is becoming more and more concerned by the government, the meteorological researchers and the public. And climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, cold currents, floods and so on.
Previous studies of meteorological epidemiology have pointed out that temperature has a significant impact on Residents' deaths. However, these studies are mainly concentrated in developed countries in temperate regions, while related studies from developing countries, especially in tropical and subtropical areas, are rare. In fact, the weak ability to cope with climate change and a poor living environment, People in some regions are more likely to be affected by climate change. So, in order to better assess the impact of climate change on all human beings, research from different regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics, is very necessary.
The previous research on Meteorological health focused on the temperature, the daily average temperature, the highest daily temperature and the lowest daily temperature, while ignoring other meteorological factors, such as the daily temperature difference, the relative humidity, the atmospheric pressure, etc. among them, the daily temperature difference (the difference between the daily maximum temperature and the daily minimum temperature) is considered to be a very important meteorological index for evaluating the global climate change. Humidity and atmospheric pressure are also important meteorological factors.
target
The meteorological factors including daily temperature difference, daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, heat wave, and the interaction effects of temperature and other meteorological factors, and sensitive people of different meteorological factors are also discussed.
Method
data sources
The 2003-2007 year death data came from the Guangdong Provincial Health Bureau, and 2008-2011 years of death data came from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and prevention. Death data included basic individual information, such as sex, date of birth, death date, education, and professional level.
The weather data comes from the national meteorological data sharing center, which includes daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and so on. Air pollution data (such as NO2, SO2, PM10) comes from the Guangzhou Environmental Protection Bureau.
Data analysis
The distribution lag nonlinear model is used to evaluate the relationship between temperature and death nonlinearity and the effect of temperature lag. The influence of daily temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure is also used to fit the distribution lag nonlinear model, and control temperature, air pollution, seasonal trend and week, holiday effect and other confounding factors. The interaction effect of the difference, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, this study was fitted with the three spline function of the two variable, and the heat wave effect was evaluated by calculating the excess death rate of heat wave and the ratio of the mortality in the heat wave period to the control period.
Result
The effect of high temperature is rapid, but generally limited to 5 days, and the influence of low temperature is sustainable for 12 days. The effect of high temperature, that is, the mortality of non accidental death caused by the change of temperature from ninetieth percentile to ninety-ninth percentile increases by 15.46% (95%CI:10.05%-20.87%), and the influence of low temperature, that is, the tenth percentile to first percentile, is caused by the residents. The mortality rate of non accidental death increased by 20.39% (95%CI:11.78-29.01%). Compared with non accidental death, the temperature has more significant impact on patients with cardio cerebrovascular respiratory disease. In age groups, older people are more susceptible to low temperature and high temperature. Women are more susceptible to the influence of high temperature. Education and occupation are also high temperature and low temperature. The correction effect.
The impact of diurnal temperature difference is generally sustainable for 4 days. The mortality rate of non accidental death caused by daily temperature difference of 1 degrees centigrade increases by 0.47% (95%CI:0.01%-0.93%). In different causes of death, stroke patients are more susceptible to the influence of day temperature difference. Compared with men, young people, higher education level, women, elderly people, and low education people It is more susceptible to the difference of temperature. There is an interaction effect between temperature and daily temperature difference below 22.
Relative humidity, atmospheric pressure is a nonlinear monotonous relationship with death. Low humidity and low pressure are the risk factors for death of residents, especially for cardiovascular disease. Compared with young people younger than 75 years old, male and higher education, older people older than 75 years old, women who are not educated are more susceptible to low humidity and low pressure. And when the air pressure is very high, it can also cause death increase.
2003-2006 years, we received a period of 9 days of heat waves from June 12, 2005 to 21. During this heat wave, the number of excess deaths reached 145. Heat waves had a significant impact on non accidental causes of death (RR-1.23,95%CI:1.11-1.37). Compared with the non accidental cause of death, the impact of heat waves on cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease was more significant. Sex, the elderly and socioeconomic status are sensitive populations of heat waves.
conclusion
Low temperature and high temperature, diurnal temperature difference, low humidity and low pressure have a significant influence on the death of residents, which leads to increased risk of death. At low temperature, there is interaction effect between temperature and daily temperature difference. Low humidity and low pressure also have interaction effects with temperature. Women, elderly people, social economic status relatively low, cardiovascular and respiratory system diseases The patient was a sensitive group of meteorological factors in this study.
More importantly, this study suggests that even in subtropical areas, low temperature is also an important risk factor for death, which provides strong evidence for the issue of central heating in the south in the winter. And this study provides protection measures and heat waves for sensitive people. The early warning of the temperature difference of the larger day provides the basis.
【学位授予单位】：南方医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R122.26

【共引文献】