珠海市大气污染物与居民每日死亡相关性的时间序列分析

发布时间：2018-08-22 16:38

【摘要】：目的研究珠海市大气污染物的分布特征及其与居民每日死亡数间的相关性。方法收集珠海市2013—2015年大气污染物浓度及同期的气象资料和每日死亡人数,分析大气污染物的分布特征及其与气象因子的相关性,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型(GAM)研究大气污染物与居民每日死亡数之间的关系。结果珠海市3年内大气PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、SO_2和NO_2浓度均呈下降趋势,O_3浓度基本保持不变;除O_3外,污染物浓度高峰期基本为12—2月,低峰期为6月。除O_3与平均气温无相关关系外(P0.05),其他污染物与平均气温、相对湿度均呈负相关(P0.01)。NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和SO_2对人群每日总死亡数有明显影响,其中PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)在滞后3 d时效应最大,浓度每升高10μg/m~3,死亡总数分别增加0.89%(95%CI:0.19%~1.60%)和1.60%(95%CI:0.61%~2.60%),同时可引起循环系统疾病死亡分别增加1.38%(95%CI:0.29%~2.49%)和2.27%(95%CI:0.75%~3.81%)。结论珠海市大气污染与居民每日死亡数有一定关联,应引起重视。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the distribution characteristics of air pollutants and the correlation between air pollutants and daily deaths in Zhuhai City. Methods the concentration of atmospheric pollutants, meteorological data of the same period and the number of daily deaths in Zhuhai were collected, and the distribution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants and their correlation with meteorological factors were analyzed. A time series semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to study the relationship between air pollutants and the daily mortality of residents. Results in Zhuhai City, the concentration of PM2.5 / PM10 and NO_2 in the atmosphere showed a decreasing trend within 3 years. The concentration of O _ (3) remained unchanged, except for O _ (3), the peak of pollutant concentration was 12 ~ (-2) months, and the low peak period was 6 months. Except that there was no correlation between O _ 3 and mean air temperature (P0.05), other pollutants were negatively correlated with average air temperature and relative humidity (P0.01). No _ 2P _ (10) and SO_2 had significant effects on the total daily mortality, and PM10 and PM _ (2.5) had the greatest effect at 3 days lag. For every 10 渭 g / m ~ (3) increase in concentration, the total number of deaths increased by 0.89% (95 CI: 0.19 1.60%) and 1.60% (95 CI: 0.61-2.60%) respectively, and the death rate of circulatory diseases increased by 1.38% (95 CI: 0.29 2.49%) and 2.27% (95 CI 0.7575 / 3.81%), respectively. Conclusion Air pollution is related to the daily death rate of residents in Zhuhai, which should be paid more attention to.
【作者单位】：珠海市疾病预防控制中心学校与环境卫生所;
【基金】：广东省医学科研基金(A2017390)
【分类号】：R12

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