基于模块化配置的传染病现场防控装备保障能力评估与模拟仿真研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 12:36

【摘要】：传染病现场防控装备是传染病预防控制的物质基础和重要条件,是传染病预防控制体系的重要组成部分,是疾病预防控制机构技术水平和现场处置能力的直接反映。目前,我国传染病现场防控装备体系不完善,装备零散分散,模块化程度不高,装备配置标准不统一,且缺乏科学的保障能力评估方法和模拟仿真手段,致使传染病现场防控装备在研制、配发、运用、评价等方面存在诸多不足,制约着我国传染病现场防控装备的发展。为此,本课题通过对传染病现场防控装备的模块化设计与编配,以实现传染病防控装备保障流程、保障环节及装备运用方式的规范化、标准化;在模块化装备编配的基础上,通过开展装备保障能力评估和模拟仿真,以实现特定传染病疫情背景下的传染病现场防控装备仿真运行和保障能力评价,形成适用于不同层面疾控机构需求的现场防控装备优化编配、保障能力评估的模拟仿真平台,从而达到优化对传染病现场防控工作任务规划并辅助疾病预防控制机构进行决策的目标。主要研究内容及方法:1、传染病现场防控装备模块化设计和研究应用系统论原理,对传染病现场防控任务需求进行分析与分解,根据各装备的功能需求,建立传染病现场防控装备系统的各级子系统与基本模块,应用模块聚类算法对相关模块装备进行细分,从而建立传染病现场防控装备模块化体系;采用聚类分析方法对模块化体系结论进行理论验证,从数学角度在一定程度上实现装备的模块分解与划分;从系统论角度分析传染病现场防控工作的任务需求,根据传染病传播的基本特征及传染病防控工作的基本流程进一步明确传染病现场防控工作中的装备需求,再通过装备的模块化组合,实现传染病防控装备的模块化配置;针对不同传染病背景和疾控机构的职能范围和保障力量,应用现场调研与函调等方法确定传染病防控装备的种类与数量需求,进而建立适应不同任务需求的传染病现场防控装备配置方案,实现对模块化设计结论的应用验证。2、传染病现场防控装备保障能力评估研究根据传染病现场防控任务需求,应用综合评价方法,针对传染病现场防控任务的任务完成度和任务保障效能,对传染病现场防控装备进行评估。评估中选用了综合评价方法包括线性加权综合法、德尔菲专家调查法、层次分析法及模糊综合评价法等评估方法。通过测试数据验证可知,我国部分疾控机构在传染病现场防控装备的配置上还十分薄弱,应对疫情等级为较大以上传染病防控能力亟待加强,在传染病防控装备功能和数量的配置上还有待完善;在装备保障效能方面,当前我国部分在研传染病现场防控装备具备了较好的保障性能。在以上评估理论基础上,通过开发传染病现场防控装备保障能力评估软件平台,实现装备评估的智能化、数字化,从而有效简化评估形式,以期实现装备评估平台的推广应用,并为传染病现场防控工作的指挥决策及各级疾控机构的装备配置、选型以及采购等提供重要参考依据和辅助决策。3、传染病现场防控装备仿真系统设计与开发应用传染病现场防控装备模块化研究与保障能力评估的研究成果,对传染病现场防控过程及装备运用流程进行模拟仿真。以模拟仿真理论为基础,讨论传染病现场防控装备模拟仿真系统的设计、建模及运行方式,并以地理信息系统(GIS)为基础平台,以计算机编程技术为技术手段,开发传染病现场防控装备模拟仿真软件平台。该平台能够实现典型传染病现场处置背景环境生成,相关疾控机构、防控装备及传染病基本信息查询,典型传染病现场防控装备展示,传染病应急处置力量装备配置方案生成,传染病现场防控流程模拟与装备运行仿真等功能,为进一步形成由装备配置模型、控制系统、多屏多媒体系统等构成的、可视、可控、可调及人机交互的电子集成平台提供软件基础,为传染病现场处置机构提供决策支持。综上所述,本课题针对传染病现场防控工作的勤务任务与装备需求,构建了传染病防控装备模块化体系,对传染病防控工作的不同流程及不同处置对象进行了装备模块化配置,建立了基于不同等级传染病处置力量的装备编配方案;在装备模块需求的基础上,采用综合评价方法进行了装备保障能力评估;针对传染病现场防控工作流程,以GIS为基础平台,以计算机编程技术为技术手段,开发了传染病现场防控装备模拟仿真软件平台。通过本研究,实现了传染病防控装备保障流程、保障环节及装备运用方式的规范化、标准化和最优化;实现了适于不同层面疾控机构需求的现场防控装备优化编配和保障能力评估,为传染病防控装备的优化配置与合理编配提供理论基础;建立了基于装备模块化编配的模拟仿真平台,实现了典型疾控机构、典型事件、典型环境下防控装备的编配模拟,直观反映防控装备保障环节,为传染病防控工作的实施与演练提供仿真数据与决策支持。通过本研究,对今后各类疾控机构现场防控装备科学编配和保障能力的提高意义重大。课题研究的创新点主要表现为:(1)应用系统论理论分析传染病防控工作需求,建立了传染病防控装备模块化体系,为传染病现场防控装备研发、配置提供决策参考;(2)依据传染病现场防控工作对装备的需求定位,实现了传染病防控装备模块化配置并构建了装备编配方案,为传染病防控装备的优化配置与合理编配提供了理论基础;(3)基于装备的模块化需求,采用模糊综合评价法对装备编配方案的保障能力进行评估,实现了对传染病防控过程装备效能评价的辅助决策;(4)设计并实现了传染病现场防控装备评估与模拟仿真系统,为传染病防控工作的实施与演练提供仿真数据与决策支持。
[Abstract]:Infectious disease on-site prevention and control equipment is the material basis and important condition of infectious disease prevention and control, is an important part of the system of infectious disease prevention and control, is a direct reflection of the technical level of disease prevention and control institutions and on-site disposal capacity. There are many shortcomings in the development, distribution, application and evaluation of infectious disease field prevention and control equipment, which restrict the development of infectious disease field prevention and control equipment in our country. Modular design and deployment to realize the standardization and standardization of the equipment support process, the support links and the use of equipment; on the basis of modular equipment deployment, through the evaluation of equipment support capability and simulation, to achieve the simulation operation of infectious disease field prevention and control equipment under the specific epidemic situation. The main contents and methods are as follows: 1. Infectious diseases are now in use Modularization design and application system theory principle of field prevention and control equipment are studied. The task requirement of field prevention and control of infectious diseases is analyzed and decomposed. According to the functional requirements of each equipment, the subsystems and basic modules of field prevention and control equipment system of infectious diseases are established. The modularization system of the equipment for disease prevention and control on the spot is analyzed; the conclusion of the modularization system is theoretically verified by cluster analysis method, and the module decomposition and division of the equipment is realized to a certain extent from the mathematical point of view; the task requirement of the work of infectious disease prevention and control on the spot is analyzed from the system theory point of view, according to the basic characteristics of infectious disease transmission and the work of infectious disease prevention and control. The basic process is to further clarify the equipment requirements in the field prevention and control of infectious diseases, and then to realize the modular configuration of infectious disease prevention and control equipment by modular combination of equipment; to determine the equipment for infectious disease prevention and control by means of field investigation and correspondence investigation in accordance with different infectious disease background and functional scope and safeguard strength of disease control agencies. Secondly, according to the requirement of infectious disease on-site prevention and control task, the comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the task of infectious disease on-site prevention and control. Task completeness and task support effectiveness are evaluated for infectious disease field prevention and control equipment. Comprehensive evaluation methods are selected, including linear weighted synthesis method, Delphi expert investigation method, AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The equipment configuration of field prevention and control is still very weak, and the ability of preventing and controlling infectious diseases with epidemic grade above is urgent to be strengthened, and the function and quantity of the equipment need to be improved. On the basis of evaluation theory, the intelligent and digital evaluation of equipment is realized by developing a software platform for evaluating the support capability of equipment for infectious disease field prevention and control, and the evaluation forms are effectively simplified, so as to realize the popularization and application of the equipment evaluation platform, and to make command and decision for the work of infectious disease field prevention and control as well as the equipment allocation and selection of disease control institutions at all levels. 3. The design and development of simulation system for infectious disease field prevention and control equipment. The research results of modularization research and support capability evaluation of infectious disease field prevention and control equipment are used to simulate the process of infectious disease field prevention and control and equipment application. This paper discusses the design, modeling and operation mode of simulation system for infectious disease field prevention and control equipment, and develops a simulation software platform for infectious disease field prevention and control equipment based on geographic information system (GIS) and computer programming technology. The functions of disease control institutions, basic information inquiry of prevention and control equipment and infectious diseases, demonstration of typical infectious diseases on-site prevention and control equipment, generation of contingency disposal equipment configuration scheme, simulation of infectious diseases on-site prevention and control process and Simulation of equipment operation, etc. are further formed, which are composed of equipment configuration model, control system and multi-screen multimedia system. The visual, controllable, adjustable and man-machine interactive electronic integration platform provides software foundation for decision-making support for infectious disease field disposal agencies. In summary, this topic constructs a modular system for infectious disease prevention and control equipment, and different processes and requirements for infectious disease prevention and control work. Different disposal objects are disposed modularily, and equipment allocation schemes based on different levels of infectious disease disposal forces are established; equipment support capability is evaluated by comprehensive evaluation method on the basis of equipment module requirements; and the work flow of infectious disease field prevention and control is analyzed based on GIS and computer programming technology. A simulation software platform for infectious disease prevention and control equipment is developed for technical means. Through this research, the standardization, standardization and optimization of the support process, support links and equipment operation modes of infectious disease prevention and control equipment are realized, and the optimal allocation and support capability of field prevention and control equipment suitable for the needs of different levels of disease control institutions are realized. The evaluation provides a theoretical basis for the optimal allocation and rational allocation of infectious disease prevention and control equipment, establishes a simulation platform based on the modular allocation of equipment, realizes the allocation simulation of typical disease control institutions, typical events, and typical environment, directly reflects the support links of prevention and control equipment, and provides the implementation and performance of infectious disease prevention and control work. Through this study, it is of great significance to improve the scientific allocation and support capability of various kinds of disease control and prevention equipment in the future. The main innovations of this research are as follows: (1) Analyzing the work requirements of infectious disease prevention and control by applying the theory of system theory, and establishing the modular system of infectious disease prevention and control equipment for transmission. Research and development of infectious disease prevention and control equipment on-site, configuration to provide decision-making reference; (2) According to the work of infectious disease prevention and control on-site equipment needs positioning, the realization of infectious disease prevention and control equipment modular configuration and equipment configuration scheme, for infectious disease prevention and control equipment optimization configuration and rational allocation provides a theoretical basis; (3) equipment-based modular needs Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the support capability of equipment allocation scheme, and the auxiliary decision-making of equipment effectiveness evaluation in the process of infectious disease prevention and control is realized. (4) The evaluation and simulation system of equipment for infectious disease prevention and control is designed and implemented, which provides simulation data and decision support for the implementation and drilling of infectious disease prevention and control.
【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军军事医学科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R824

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