基于随机性集合覆盖模型的伤病员后送运力预计及优化配置仿真模型设计

发布时间：2019-02-14 14:10

【摘要】：目的:设计仿真模型用于大批伤病员后送动力预计及配置优化。方法:分析了目前运力预计方法的不足,引入运筹学中的选址问题,选用应用随机性集合覆盖模型解决后送运力优化配置的理论模型,分析探讨了伤病员后送中的若干不确定因素,包括后送工具的可获得性、后送工具的容量及速度、有效工作时间。根据这些随机变量的特征,确定相应的理论概率分布。结果:按照蒙特卡罗仿真的原理,以随机性集合覆盖模型为基础,用随机数模拟上述不确定因素,形成后送运力优化配置的仿真模型。结论:本模型可作为今后开发计算机辅助软件的基础,并供各级卫勤机构参考。
[Abstract]:Objective: to design a simulation model for mass casualty evacuation power prediction and configuration optimization. Methods: based on the analysis of the shortage of current capacity prediction methods, the location problem in operational research was introduced, and the theoretical model of optimal allocation of evacuation capacity was selected based on the random set coverage model. This paper analyzes and discusses some uncertain factors in casualty evacuation, including the availability of the evacuation tool, the capacity and speed of the evacuation tool, and the effective working time. According to the characteristics of these random variables, the corresponding theoretical probability distribution is determined. Results: according to the principle of Monte Carlo simulation, based on the random set covering model, the random number was used to simulate the above uncertain factors, and the simulation model of optimal allocation of evacuation capacity was formed. Conclusion: this model can be used as the basis for developing computer-aided software in the future and can be used as a reference for medical service organizations at all levels.
【作者单位】：第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生勤务学教研室第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生勤务学教研室第二军医大学基础医学部数理教研室第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生统计学教研室
【基金】：军队医药卫生“十五”计划项目(03M002)
【分类号】：R82

【共引文献】