江苏省昆山市1981年-2015年肺癌死因对期望寿命和潜在减寿年影响分析

发布时间：2018-07-21 11:14

【摘要】：背景与目的肺癌发病率和死亡率在男性和女性人群持续上升,但是有关肺癌所致的潜在减寿年和去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命时间变化趋势的研究较少。本研究旨在探究江苏省昆山市1981年-2015年去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和肺癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势。方法 1981年-2015年肺癌死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年。用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年。使用年度变化百分比(estimate annual percentage change,e APC)评价去肺癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间变化趋势。结果总人群中去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命由1981年的0.34岁上升到2015年的0.86岁,上升趋势有统计学意义(APC=3.2%,95%CI:2.8%-3.6%);男性人群(APC=3.0%,95%CI:2.5%-3.5%)和女性人群中(APC=3.6%,95%CI:3.0%-4.2%)去肺癌死因可增加期望寿命也呈现上升趋势。肺癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-0.1%,95%CI:-0.6%-0.4%)和男性人群(APC=-0.5%,95%CI:-1.1%~0.1%)无明显趋势变化,而女性人群中明显上升(APC=1.5%,95%CI:0.3%-2.7%)。结论虽然因肺癌所致的过早死亡没有趋势变化,而肺癌死因对全人群期望寿命的影响在持续上升,有针对性的肺癌预防控制措施亟需开展。
[Abstract]:Background and objective Lung cancer morbidity and mortality continue to increase in both male and female populations, but there are few studies on the trends of the potential years of life lost due to lung cancer and the death causes of lung cancer to increase life expectancy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the trend of death from lung cancer in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province from 1981 to 2015, which could increase the life expectancy and the potential life loss due to lung cancer. Methods death cases of lung cancer from 1981 to 2015 were collected from the cause of death, and the death causes of lung cancer were calculated to increase the life expectancy and the potential years of life loss. The age structure of the fifth population census of China in 2000 was used to calculate the age standardized potential life loss years by sex. The percentage of annual change (estimate annual percentage) was used to evaluate the tendency of lung cancer eradication to increase the expected life expectancy and the potential years of life loss over the years. Results the death rate of lung cancer increased from 0.34 years in 1981 to 0.86 years in 2015. There was a statistically significant increase in the death rate of lung cancer in the total population (APC 3.2i 95 CI: 2.8- 3.6%), and in the male population (APCT 3.095 CI: 2.5-3.5%) and the female population (APC3.36%, 95CIW 3.0-4.2%), the mortality of lung cancer also increased. The standardized potential life loss due to lung cancer did not change significantly in the general population (APC-0.1) and in the male population (APC-0.5 + 95% CI: -1.1%), while in the female population there was a significant increase (APC-1.595 CI: 0.3-2.7%). Conclusion although there is no trend of premature death caused by lung cancer, and the effect of lung cancer death causes on life expectancy of the whole population is increasing, the prevention and control measures for lung cancer need to be carried out.
【作者单位】：江苏省昆山市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科;昆山高新区社区卫生服务中心;苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;
【基金】：昆山市社会发展科技项目(No.KS1655)资助~~
【分类号】：R734.2

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