北京市交通拥堵特征及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-04 08:44

本文选题：交通拥堵　切入点：拥堵特征　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着人口的增长,经济的高速发展以及城市化水平的提高,城市机动车保有量急剧增长,城市交通拥堵状况也随之日益严峻。交通拥堵给居民的生产和生活带来了诸多不便,严重制约城市的可持续发展。拥堵问题始终是诸多学者和专家关注的焦点,而交通拥堵问题根本原因是交通供给和交通需求的不均衡。北京现阶段交通需求的特点包括以下两个方面:一、出行需求总量巨大超过了现阶段的道路供给水平;二、出行方式结构不合理,私家车占比过高,公共交通占比有待提高。本文以北京为实证研究对象,阐述北京的交通拥堵特征和道路交通拥堵的影响因素,为北京交通拥堵治理提出建议,也为其它特大城市乃至全国的交通拥堵治理提供参考和借鉴。本文以交通供需理论、交通需求管理理论作为理论基础。在总结相关理论和文献的基础上,首先分析北京市交通拥堵的现状和特征以及道路交通拥堵的影响因素。然后依据通过百度地图API抓取的46条上下行线路的通行数据,采用聚类等统计分析方法对北京市道路拥堵特征进行实证分析,分析了北京市交通拥堵的时间分布特征和拥堵的空间分布特征以及其他一些拥堵特征。最后采用多项式回归和多元对数回归模型,以实时抓取和实地调查的数据为基础,对道路拥堵与车辆数的关系特征以及道路交通拥堵的影响因素进行实证分析。通过实证分析得出如下结论:第一,北京市不同道路的拥堵特征不同,拥堵的时空分布最大的特征就是不均衡性。在实际管理过程中,应针对不同道路特点分别采取限制车流、建设潮汐车道等不同的措施达到"削峰填谷"的目的。第二,道路拥堵与车辆数的对应关系呈"S"型曲线特征。在道路很通畅的情况下,车辆数的增加对拥堵几乎没有影响;之后伴随着车辆数的增加,拥堵呈现边际递增;在达到一定的车辆数之后,拥堵随着车辆数的增加呈现边际递减,并逐渐达到饱和。第三,道路拥堵影响因素方面。道路沿线是否有地铁对道路拥堵程度的影响不显著,即地铁对小汽车的替代作用不明显;公交站密度越大和公交专用道加重了高峰期的道路拥堵状况;区域就业人口数量对道路影响是显著的,这部分决定了出行需求量。最后针对实证结论,本文提出应对交通拥堵的关键在于控制交通需求总量,优化出行结构,减少小汽车出行数量和比例。为了削减道路上行驶的车辆数,利用经济杠杆,增加小汽车的使用成本,从总体上消减小汽车出行数量。限制特定时间特定路段的交通流量,调节交通流量的时空分布,达到缓解交通拥堵的作用。
[Abstract]:With the population growth, rapid economic development and improve the level of city, the rapid growth of motor vehicles in city, city traffic congestion is becoming severe. Traffic congestion has brought a lot of inconvenience to the production and life of the residents, seriously restricting the sustainable development of the city. The congestion problem is always the focus of many scholars and experts concerned the basic reason for the problem of traffic congestion is the transport supply and demand imbalance. At this stage the traffic demand characteristics of Beijing include the following two aspects: first, the huge volume of travel demand exceeds supply road level at this stage; two, trip mode structure unreasonable, private cars accounted for the high proportion of public transport needs to be improved. This paper takes Beijing as the research object, describes the influence factors of the traffic congestion and road traffic congestion in Beijing, Beijing proposed the construction of traffic congestion management And also provide reference for other large city and the traffic congestion management. Based on the theory of supply and demand, transportation demand management theory as the theoretical foundation. Based on summarizing the relevant theory and literature on the first factor analysis of Beijing city traffic congestion situation and characteristics and road traffic congestion effects. Then according to traffic data 46 up and down the line through the Baidu maps API crawl, using clustering and statistical analysis of the characteristics of road congestion in Beijing for empirical analysis, and analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and distribution of Beijing city traffic congestion time and other characteristics. Finally, congestion using the polynomial regression and multivariate logistic regression models, with real-time capture and field survey data as the basis, factor characteristics of road congestion and the number of vehicles and road traffic congestion. For the empirical analysis. The conclusions are as follows: first, the characteristics of different road congestion in Beijing City, the congestion of the temporal and spatial distribution of the biggest feature is not balanced. In the actual management process, should according to the different characteristics of the road were taken to limit traffic, construction tide Lane different measures to reach the peak "". Second, the corresponding relationship between road congestion and the number of vehicles is characteristic of S type curve. On the road is unobstructed, the increase of the number of vehicles has almost no effect on congestion; after accompanied by an increase in the number of vehicles, congestion is increasing marginal; after reaching a certain number of vehicles, with congestion increase the number of vehicles is diminishing marginal and gradually reached saturation. Third factors affecting road congestion. Along the road is the subway has no obvious influence on the degree of road congestion, subway cars for the replacement of The bus station is not obvious; the greater density and bus lanes increased road congestion peak; affect the number of regional employment population on the road is significant, this part determines the travel demand. Finally, according to the empirical conclusions, this paper argues that the key to deal with traffic congestion in total control of traffic demand, optimize travel structure, reduce the number and proportion of the number of vehicles driving car. In order to cut down on the road, the use of economic levers, increase the cost of cars, reduce car travel in general. The number of traffic restrictions at specific time in specific sections of the temporal and spatial distribution of traffic regulation, to ease traffic congestion.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D631.5

【参考文献】