我国城镇化群体性冲突事件的动力学仿真及其化解机制研究

发布时间：2019-03-02 12:26

【摘要】：基于系统动力学提出城镇化群体性冲突事件的基本分析框架,结合城镇化群体冲突的特征,从政府、公众和其他相关方三方面分析了城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的因果关系,提出了城镇化群体性冲突事件影响因子体系,建立了城镇化群体性冲突事件的系统流图和动力学仿真模型。通过拟合不同层面影响因子对城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的影响,分析了群体性冲突动力系统中各影响因子的实际作用程度,并利用Vensim PLE软件对模型进行仿真模拟,验证了模型的有效性与实用性。结果表明,政府因素是导致城镇化群体性冲突事件的重要因素,而公众及其他相关因素对城镇化群体性冲突事件产生的影响相对较弱,并在此基础上提出缓解我国城镇化群体性冲突事件的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the system dynamics, this paper puts forward the basic analysis frame of urbanization group conflict event, and analyzes the cause and effect relationship of urbanization group conflict event from three aspects: government, public and other relevant parties, combining with the characteristics of urbanization group conflict, and puts forward the basic analysis frame of urbanization group conflict event based on system dynamics. The influence factor system of urbanization mass conflict event is put forward, and the system flow diagram and dynamics simulation model of urbanization group conflict event are established. By fitting the influence factors of different levels on the event of urbanization mass conflict, this paper analyzes the actual action degree of each influence factor in the dynamic system of mass conflict, and simulates the model with Vensim PLE software. The validity and practicability of the model are verified. The results show that the government factor is an important factor leading to the mass conflict of urbanization, while the public and other related factors have a relatively weak impact on the event of mass conflict of urbanization. On this basis, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions to alleviate the mass conflict of urbanization in our country.
【作者单位】：云南财经大学国际工商学院;
【分类号】：D631.43

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