基于中国对日茶叶出口的技术壁垒预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 15:33

本文选题：技术性贸易壁垒 + BP神经网络　；参考：《江南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)因其合法性与保护性并存的特征,为许多国家假借保护社会安全之名,行贸易保护之实提供了广泛的操作空间,发达国家与发展中国家之间的技术贸易壁垒问题尤为突出。一直以来,茶叶是我国主要出口创汇产品,出口量长期居世界前列,在我国农产品出口中占有重要地位。而日本是我国主要茶叶进口国之一,日本市场一直受到我国茶叶行业高度重视。但由于日本实施了严苛的技术标准,使得我国对日茶叶贸易趋于疲软。因此,基于中国对日茶叶出口的技术壁垒预警研究具有代表性,相应提出的措施对提升我国出口产品的竞争力、应对技术壁垒都有深刻的借鉴意义和现实意义。本文在乌尔里希?贝克的“风险社会”理论的指导下,丰富了我国应对技术壁垒的风险预警理论,较好地解决了贝克提出的风险阈值界定问题,构建了一套较为完善的预警指标体系。通过分析技术壁垒传统应对方法的不足,引出我国构建TBT预警机制的必要性,借鉴发达国家丰富的实践经验以及国内发达地区尝试成果,提出我国构建TBT预警机制的可行性,但依然面临技术层面和制度层面两大问题,并在下文分别提出相应的解决措施。以中国对日茶叶出口遭遇的技术壁垒问题为出发点,透过我国对日茶叶市场占有和受阻情况,具体分析日本的技术壁垒体系,尝试建立对日茶叶出口遭遇技术壁垒的预警指标体系。然后采用具有很强自学习能力和适应能力的BP神经网络模型来构建技术壁垒预警模型,且试验结果比较理想,较为准确地预测出下一年我国对日茶叶出口遭遇技术壁垒的程度,并及时发出预警信号。这在一定程度上解决了一直以来的时滞问题,为技术壁垒预警机制构建提供了技术支撑,这也是BP神经网络预测功能在技术壁垒预警领域的一次突破。对于我国构建TBT预警机制在制度层面上的问题,本文尝试提出了三点建议:第一,明确政府、行业和企业三方分工,形成官产学协调机制;第二,从技术法规体系的立法理念、制度设计和立法程序等方面,完善我国技术法规体系;第三,建立健全技术壁垒预警机制。
[Abstract]:In recent years, TBT (Technical barriers to Trade) has provided a wide range of operating space for many countries to protect trade under the pretext of protecting social security because of its co-existence of legality and protection. The problem of technical barriers to trade between developed and developing countries is particularly prominent. Tea has been the main export product of our country for a long time, and occupies an important position in the export of agricultural products. Japan is one of the main tea importing countries in China. However, due to Japan's strict technical standards, China's tea trade with Japan tends to weaken. Therefore, the early warning study of technical barriers based on China's tea exports to Japan is representative, and the corresponding measures have profound reference and practical significance to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese export products and to deal with technical barriers. This article is based on Ulrich? Under the guidance of Baker's "risk society" theory, it enriches the risk warning theory of our country in response to technical barriers, solves the problem of defining risk threshold put forward by Baker, and constructs a set of relatively perfect early-warning index system. Based on the analysis of the shortcomings of the traditional methods of dealing with technical barriers, the necessity of constructing the TBT early-warning mechanism in China is drawn, and the feasibility of constructing the TBT early-warning mechanism in China is put forward by referring to the rich practical experience of the developed countries and the trial results of the domestic developed regions. But still face two big problems of technical level and system level, and put forward the corresponding solution measure separately in the following. Based on the problem of technical barriers encountered by China's tea exports to Japan, through the possession and obstruction of China's tea market to Japan, the paper concretely analyzes the system of technical barriers in Japan. This paper attempts to establish an early warning index system of technical barriers to tea exports to Japan. Then the BP neural network model with strong self-learning ability and adaptability is adopted to construct the warning model of technical barriers, and the experimental results are ideal. The degree of technical barriers encountered by China's tea exports to Japan in the next year is predicted more accurately. And send out early warning signal in time. To some extent, it solves the problem of delay and provides technical support for the construction of technical barrier warning mechanism. It is also a breakthrough of BP neural network in the field of technical barrier early warning. In order to solve the problem of constructing TBT early warning mechanism in our country, this paper tries to put forward three suggestions: first, to make clear the tripartite division of labor among government, industry and enterprises, and to form the coordination mechanism of government, industry and school; second, to put forward the legislative idea of the system of technical laws and regulations. System design and legislative procedures, improve China's technical laws and regulations system; third, establish and improve the warning mechanism of technical barriers.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D922.291

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