中国车险市场波动及其影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-08-12 15:38
【摘要】：我国的保险业起源于1899年,但随着建国后人民公社运动的进行,保险业进入停滞期,经历了多年的波折后,于1978重新开启,随后呈高速发展状态。作为保险业重要支柱之一,财产险是不可忽视的组成部分,如今对整个保险行业以及财险相关已有诸多相关研究,而占财险收入份额75%以上的机动车险市场相关研究依旧较少。针对研究空白,本文首先研究以往学者对改革开放以来经济周期的经验性阶段划分,了解背后实际经济意义后,对GDP年度数据以及车险保费收入数据进行HP滤波分析,分离其周期波动成分,观察波动特征,GDP对车险保费收入有很强的带动作用,当GDP周期运行状态反转时,车险保费收入波动程度更大,但受GDP周期约束程度较大,但在相同大周期下,会走出自己的小级别周期形态,说明存在其他因素对其有显著影响;随后对对我国车险市场发展现状进行分析,从面板数据出发,借鉴国内外相关研究成果,探索各类因素对车险保费收入影响,通过岭估计方法削减各变量间共线性后,发现居民汽车拥有量对车险保费收入有极高的正相关性,其对应的回归系数也是所有变量中最高,已到达0.761,居民汽车拥有量与车险保费收入线性相关关系最为显著。最终综合动态、静态两方面分析结果,得出最终结论,并给出具体可行性建议。
[Abstract]:The insurance industry of our country originated in 1899, but with the movement of people's commune after the founding of the people's Commune, the insurance industry came to a standstill, after many years of twists and turns, it was reopened in 1978 and then developed at a high speed. As one of the important pillars of the insurance industry, property insurance is an important part of the insurance industry. Nowadays, there are many related studies on the whole insurance industry and property insurance, but the motor vehicle insurance market, which accounts for more than 75% of the income from property insurance, is still less. Aiming at the blank of the research, this paper first studies the empirical stage division of the economic cycle since the reform and opening up, and then analyzes the annual data of GDP and the premium income data of auto insurance by HP filter. It is observed that the fluctuation characteristic of GDP has a very strong driving effect on the premium income of automobile insurance. When the operating state of GDP cycle is reversed, the fluctuation degree of premium income of auto insurance is greater, but the degree of restriction of GDP cycle is greater. However, under the same large period, it will walk out of its own small periodic pattern, indicating that there are other factors that have a significant impact on it. Then, it analyzes the current situation of China's auto insurance market, starting from the panel data, Referring to the domestic and foreign related research results, this paper explores the influence of various factors on the premium income of automobile insurance. After reducing the collinearity among the variables by using the ridge estimation method, it is found that there is a very high positive correlation between the car ownership and the premium income of vehicle insurance. The regression coefficient is also the highest among all variables, which has reached 0.761.The linear correlation between car ownership and premium income is the most significant. Finally, synthesizing the dynamic and static analysis results, the final conclusion is drawn, and the concrete feasibility suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D922.284
[Abstract]:The insurance industry of our country originated in 1899, but with the movement of people's commune after the founding of the people's Commune, the insurance industry came to a standstill, after many years of twists and turns, it was reopened in 1978 and then developed at a high speed. As one of the important pillars of the insurance industry, property insurance is an important part of the insurance industry. Nowadays, there are many related studies on the whole insurance industry and property insurance, but the motor vehicle insurance market, which accounts for more than 75% of the income from property insurance, is still less. Aiming at the blank of the research, this paper first studies the empirical stage division of the economic cycle since the reform and opening up, and then analyzes the annual data of GDP and the premium income data of auto insurance by HP filter. It is observed that the fluctuation characteristic of GDP has a very strong driving effect on the premium income of automobile insurance. When the operating state of GDP cycle is reversed, the fluctuation degree of premium income of auto insurance is greater, but the degree of restriction of GDP cycle is greater. However, under the same large period, it will walk out of its own small periodic pattern, indicating that there are other factors that have a significant impact on it. Then, it analyzes the current situation of China's auto insurance market, starting from the panel data, Referring to the domestic and foreign related research results, this paper explores the influence of various factors on the premium income of automobile insurance. After reducing the collinearity among the variables by using the ridge estimation method, it is found that there is a very high positive correlation between the car ownership and the premium income of vehicle insurance. The regression coefficient is also the highest among all variables, which has reached 0.761.The linear correlation between car ownership and premium income is the most significant. Finally, synthesizing the dynamic and static analysis results, the final conclusion is drawn, and the concrete feasibility suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D922.284
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