标准与国际贸易：理论与中国的经验证据

发布时间：2018-05-08 19:16

本文选题：标准 + 标准化　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：标准是国际贸易的基石,是各国开展商业交流的技术语言。随着贸易自由化进程的加快,各国普遍融入经济全球化,标准对于贸易的影响不断凸显。当前,关于标准贸易效应的研究成为WTO、世界银行等国际组织开展贸易政策研究的前沿和热点领域之一。自上世纪90年代以来,以德国、英国、美国等为代表的发达国家已经在这一研究领域积累了丰富的理论和实证成果,对建设国家标准化体系、制定贸易政策发挥着重要的指导作用,积极促进了对外贸易的发展。由于研究数据较难获取,数据搜集与整理的工作量大,有关发展中国家标准贸易效应的研究长期以来严重滞后于发达国家。几乎所有的已有研究都是以发达国家标准为研究对象,研究样本涉及到发展中国家的经验分析也只是考察发达国家标准对来自发展中国家贸易的影响。从发展中国家标准出发,考察发展中国家标准对其进出口贸易影响的探讨极为有限,近年才开始出现考察中国标准贸易效应的相关研究。与发达国家已经取得的研究成果相比,关于中国标准贸易效应的研究无论在研究方法上、还是在研究方向上,都远未取得系统性的研究进展。尽管长期以来国外学界、业界都非常关注中国标准,但是来自中国的经验证据却严重不足。在此背景下,论文力图从一个较为完整和系统的视角来考察中国标准的贸易效应。论文将最新的理论与鲜活的实践需求结合起来,找到二者的契合点,对理论进行了扩展,并着重提供来自中国的经验证据。论文的主要部分及研究成果如下。标准贸易效应的文献回顾。充分综述有关标准贸易效应的测度、争论的理论和实证文献,分三条线索。第一,梳理了标准影响国际贸易的作用机制；第二,综述了这一领域的经验研究成果；第三,从网络产业的微观视角出发,分别从标准竞争与标准化形成的市场机制、标准化中的非市场力量与后发者策略两个方面梳理网络产业的标准竞争与标准化策略。文献梳理重在比较研究对象和研究结论的差异,归纳总结研究方法的继承与创新。宏观层面的分析。第一,利用误差修正模型(ECM)和时序数据考察了自愿性的国家标准和国际标准对中国进出口贸易的作用。结果显示：国家标准量、国际标准量的增加对中国对外贸易规模均产生了正面的作用。颁布和实施国家标准促进了中国进出口贸易的发展,而积极采用国际标准的影响更加显著,并且它们对于出口总额的正面影响都要大于对进口总额的影响。第二,通过协整、Granger因果检验以及岭回归(Ridge Regression)考察了自愿性标准对中国出口增长的影响。研究显示：标准量的变化是出口贸易额增长的Granger原因,标准量对出口贸易额的作用的确存在,并且具有较强的时效性。岭回归的结果进一步证实了标准对中国出口增长的显著作用。这一促进作用在2001年中国成为WTO成员以后发生了显著的结构性改变。第三,基于国际分类标准(ICS)面板数据,以总需求函数为基础建立模型实证考察了强制性国家标准、自愿性国家标准、强制性国际标准、自愿性国际标准对中国对外贸易、中美双边贸易的影响。研究结果显示,中国特有的国家标准的增加,会对中国的进出口贸易产生负面影响；中国采用的国际标准(尤其是自愿性国际标准)正面推进了中国对外进出口贸易的发展,并有利于增加中美贸易盈余。强制性国家标准促进了中国向美国的出口,抑制了中国来自美国的进口。中观层面的分析。深入到产业层面,重点研究不同产业部门中各类标准的贸易效应的差异、涉及标准的贸易政策对特定产业发展的影响以及标准体系对特定产业出口贸易的作用。内容包括：第一,基于标准类别和部门差异考察标准的贸易效应。研究发现：产品、基础、方法、安全、卫生和环保等标准的增加有助于中国对外贸易规模的扩大。同时,中国标准体系存在结构性不平衡：标准存量多的产业部门中国际标准所占比重较低；各产业部门中技术标准比重较高,管理标准所占比重较低；产品、基础和方法标准所占比重较高,安全、卫生和环保标准所占比重较低。第二,以电子产品出口贸易为例,应用引力模型对电子产品领域里中国标准的贸易效应进行面板分析。研究结果显示,国家标准、国际标准对中国电子产品出口均存在显著且稳健的作用,这种影响还随着标准执行效力的不同以及电子产品种类的差异而变化,与国际标准保持一致有利于促进中国向世界出口电子产品。微观层面的分析。第一,在存在网络外部性和转换技术的市场条件下构建模型,研究兼容性标准贸易政策的形成以及对网络产业的消费者效用、企业利润以及社会福利的影响。研究结果显示：当为了遵循兼容性标准而采用转换技术的成本主要是由在本国市场上提供数字产品的外国企业承担时,本国政府有动机设定过于严格的兼容性标准。转换技术的存在有助于缓解数字市场上的企业竞争、增加社会福利,但是在有关技术标准受到知识产权保护时,转换技术的提供与定价依赖于企业之间的谈判博弈。第二,将标准因素引入异质性企业理论模型,利用中国电子产品出口企业的微观数据,首次实证度量了一致标准(harmonized standards),即等同采用国际标准的国家标准对异质性企业国际市场选择行为的影响。研究发现：一致标准对于中国电子产品的出口贸易具有显著且稳健的促进作用。这种促进作用对于出口增长的扩展边际和集约边际都有影响,并且对于前者的影响力度更大。随着一致标准在国家标准中所占比重的提高,越来越多的初期仅供应发展中国家市场的企业也开始进入发达国家市场,特别是其中生产率较高的企业；与此同时,那些初期已经开始供应发展中国家市场和发达国家市场,以及在整个样本期持续供应两类市场的企业在原有市场上的出口量也在增加。案例分析。对比分析了中国WAPI标准、韩国Binary CDMA标准的国际标准化案例,重点考察了标准化过程中市场机制和非市场机制的作用与有效性,并对国际标准化中的后发者策略进行了讨论。研究发现,中国推动国家标准成为国际标准的国际标准化策略的成功需要来自政府的政策支持,并在尊重企业决策和消费者诉求的基础上实现市场机制和非市场机制的有机结合。综合以上,我们主要基于经典国际贸易理论、标准经济学理论、网络产业组织理论、异质性企业理论以及发展经济学理论展开研究,按照宏观(中国对外贸易、中美双边贸易)—中观(产业贸易)—微观(企业国际市场选择)的顺序,对中国标准的贸易效应提供较为完整的理论论证与经验证据,并结合案例分析总结归纳中国在国际标准化中的后发者策略。主要结论包括三个方面：第一,标准对中国进出口贸易发展具有重要影响；第二,标准的贸易效应随着标准类别而有所变化,并具有重要的产业部门差异；第三,标准会影响微观企业的国际市场选择行为,标准的贸易效应可以通过标准对于贸易边际的作用进行解释。结合案例分析,从长期来看中国需要继续增进与国际标准化机构的沟通、协商和合作,积极参加筹备、设定国际标准等各阶段的具体过程,在充分考虑标准类别、技术实力和市场发展潜力的基础之上推动国家标准成为国际标准。囿于理论模型扩展的难度,以及实证数据获取的困难,论文的局限和问题在所难免,尚需进一步的研究和发展。
[Abstract]:Standard is the cornerstone of international trade and the technical language of trade exchanges among countries. With the quickening of the process of trade liberalization, countries are generally integrated into economic globalization, and the impact of standards on trade has been highlighted. At present, the research on the standard trade effect has become WTO, and the World Bank and other international organizations carry out the frontier of trade policy research. One of the hotspots.
Since the 90s of last century, the developed countries, represented by Germany, Britain and the United States, have accumulated rich theoretical and empirical results in this field. It plays an important guiding role in building a national standardization system and formulating trade policies, and has actively promoted the development of foreign trade. Because the data are difficult to obtain, data are difficult to obtain. The research on the standard trade effect of developing countries has long lagged behind the developed countries. Almost all the existing research has been based on the developed country standards, and the empirical analysis of the research samples involving the developing countries is only a study of the developed countries' standards from the developing countries. The impact of trade. From the standards of developing countries, the study of the influence of developing countries on its import and export trade is very limited. In recent years, the study of the effect of China's standard trade began to appear.
Compared with the results obtained by the developed countries, the research on China's standard trade effect is far from systematic research progress in the research methods and the research direction. Although the foreign academic circles have long been concerned about the Chinese standards, the empirical evidence from China is seriously inadequate. Under the background, the paper tries to examine the trade effect of Chinese standard from a more complete and systematic perspective. This paper combines the latest theory with the fresh practice demand, finds the agreement point of the two, expands the theory and emphasizes the empirical evidence from China. The main parts of the paper and the research results are as follows.
A literature review of standard trade effect. It gives a full overview of the measurement of standard trade effects. The theoretical and empirical literature of the debate is divided into three clues. First, it combs the action mechanism of the standard affecting international trade; second, it summarizes the empirical research results in this field; third, from the micro perspective of the network industry, the standard competition is from the standard. The competition and standardization of the market mechanism, the standardization of the non market force and post strategy two aspects of the standard competition and standardization of the network industry. The literature reviews the differences between the comparative research objects and research conclusions, and summarizes the inheritance and innovation of the research methods.
First, the effect of voluntary national standards and international standards on China's import and export trade is examined by using the error correction model (ECM) and time series data. The result shows that the increase of national standard and international standard has a positive effect on the scale of China's foreign trade. The development of China's import and export trade, and the impact of active adoption of international standards is more significant, and their positive impact on total exports must be greater than the impact on the total import. Second, through co integration, Granger causality test and ridge regression (Ridge Regression), the effect of voluntary standards on China's export growth is investigated. The result shows that the change of standard quantity is the Granger reason of the increase of export trade volume, the effect of standard volume on export trade is true, and it has strong timeliness. The result of ridge regression further confirms the significant effect of standard on China's export growth. This effect has been remarkable after China became a member of WTO in 2001. Structural changes. Third, based on the panel data of international classification standards (ICS), based on the total demand function, a model is established to examine the mandatory state standards, voluntary national standards, compulsory international standards, and the impact of voluntary international standards on China's foreign trade and bilateral trade in China. The results show that China's unique country is a unique country. The increase of standards will have a negative impact on China's import and export trade; the international standard adopted by China (especially the international standard of voluntary) has promoted the development of China's foreign import and export trade and is conducive to the increase of China US trade surplus. Compulsory national standards have promoted China's exports to the United States and restrained China from the United States. Import.
The middle level analysis. To the industrial level, it focuses on the differences in the trade effects of various standards in different industrial sectors, involving the impact of standard trade policies on the development of specific industries and the role of standard system in the export trade of specific industries. The study found that the increase in the standard of product, base, method, safety, health and environmental protection will help to expand the scale of China's foreign trade. At the same time, there is structural imbalance in China's standard system: the proportion of international standards in the industrial sector with many standard stock is low; the proportion of technical standards in various industrial departments is high, and the management standard is high. The proportion of the standard is low; the proportion of products, basic and method standards is high, and the proportion of safety, health and environmental protection standards is low. Second, take the export trade of electronic products as an example, apply gravitational model to analyze the trade effect of China standard in the field of electronic products. There is a significant and robust role in the export of national electronic products. This effect is also changed with the difference in the effectiveness of standard execution and the differences in the types of electronic products. Consistent with international standards is conducive to the promotion of China's export of electronic products to the world.
First, a model is built under the market conditions of network externality and conversion technology to study the formation of compatibility standard trade policy and the impact on the consumer utility, enterprise profit and social welfare of the network industry. The results show that the conversion technology is adopted to follow the compatibility standards. The government has the motivation to set too strict compatibility standards for foreign companies providing digital products in their domestic market. The existence of conversion technology helps to alleviate competition in the digital market and increase social welfare, but the technology standards are provided with the protection of intellectual property rights. The pricing depends on the negotiation game between enterprises. Second, introducing the standard factor into the heterogeneous enterprise theory model and using the micro data of the export enterprises of China's electronic products to measure the consistency standard (Harmonized Standards) for the first time, that is, the image of the international market selection behavior of the heterogeneous enterprise is equivalent to the national standard with international standards. The study found that the consensus standard has a significant and steady boost to the export trade of Chinese electronics. This effect has an impact on the expanded marginal and intensive margin of export growth, and has greater impact on the former. As the proportion of the uniform standards in the national standard increases, more and more At the beginning, enterprises that only supply the market in developing countries have also begun to enter the markets of developed countries, especially those with higher productivity; at the same time, those who have begun to supply the developing and developed countries and supply two types of markets for the entire period of the sample period are also exported in the original market. It's increasing.
Case analysis. The international standardization case of China's WAPI standard and the Binary CDMA standard in Korea is compared and analyzed. The role and effectiveness of the market mechanism and non market mechanism in the standardization process are emphatically investigated, and the post strategy of the international standardization is discussed. The research finds that China promotes the national standard to become an international standard. The success of the international standardization strategy requires policy support from the government and the organic combination of market mechanisms and non market mechanisms on the basis of respect for corporate decision-making and consumer demands.
On the basis of the above, we are mainly based on the classical international trade theory, the standard economics theory, the network industry organization theory, the heterogeneous enterprise theory and the development economics theory, and according to the macro (Chinese foreign trade, Sino US bilateral trade) - the middle view (Industrial Trade) - the microcosmic (enterprise international market choice) order, the Chinese standard The trade effect provides more complete theoretical proof and empirical evidence, and combines case analysis to sum up the post strategy of China in international standardization. The main conclusions include three aspects: first, the standard has an important impact on the development of China's import and export trade; second, the standard trade effect varies with the standard category. Third, the standard will affect the international market choice behavior of micro enterprises, the standard trade effect can be explained by the standard on the effect of the marginal trade. Taking part in the preparation, setting up specific processes at various stages, such as international standards, and promoting national standards to become international standards on the basis of fully considering the standard category, technical strength and market development potential.
Constrained by the difficulty of the expansion of theoretical models and the difficulty of obtaining empirical data, the limitations and problems of the paper are inevitable. Further research and development are needed.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F203

【参考文献】