基于性能（PBL）的航空备件保障方法研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 20:41

【摘要】：伴随着科学技术的进步和飞机制造业的迅猛发展，我国具有自主知识产权、符合国际适航标准的“新型涡扇喷气支线客机”（ARJ21）下线并首飞成功，随之而来的关于航空备件的保障问题被提上了议事日程，而航空备件的保障系统中，备件保障是其中的关键问题之一。本文以现代先进的PBL保障理论为基础，以ARJ21为研究对象，对航空备件的保障方法进行了相关的研究，构建了基于PBL的航空备件保障过程以及保障能力的评估模型、保障精度的熵权预测模型，提出了航空备件保障的经济性分析方法及分析内容，最后以ARJ21为例，基于PBL理论，把ARJ21的备件保障分为初期保障和持续保障两个阶段，分别提出相应的备件保障模型，并用相关数据对模型进行定量验证。 PBL的保障理论早已被广泛应用于军用飞机的保障活动中，并取得了不菲的业绩，但在民用飞机领域，这种保障方式并不常见，本文首先图解PBL保障过程，描述备件保障过程的概率性序列运算，从而阐明基于PBL的民机可靠性与备件量的关系。由于飞机的可靠性与备件量的多少息息相关，而备件量又与产品的固有故障率、使用率、库存量、维修周期、机队规模等密切相连。本文假设机队规模N=50，分别探讨维修周期tr=30天或60天，使用率β=0.5或0.8，有效利用率A0=0.8或0.95，的条件下，运用MATLAB软件模拟得到飞机可靠性与备件量的关系图。其次，运用信息熵权理论探讨航空备件保障系统的保障精度问题，分配各误差评价指标的权重，计算各单项预测方法的变异系数，用各误差评价指标的权重、单项预测方法的权重，，确定组合权重系数矩阵，最后通过实例分析证明该熵权预测模型的精度。最后，是对基于PBL的航空备件保障的经济性进行分析。在这里，首先根据获得的航空备件保障的财务报表，应用财务分析软件稽核该财务报表，根据稽核报告，合成现金流量表，生成结构财务报表，分析保障费用的盈亏要素敏感性、基于范霍恩模型的保障活动可持续性、保障活动的经济增加值、自由现金流量、基于K—S模型和边际模型的盈余状况；并用阿塔曼模型评价保障活动的成功与否，用沃尔指数评价保障活动的信用能力，最后用拉巴波特模型评估保障价值。在基于PBL的航空备件保障策略中，基于ARJ21，提出初期备件保障的周转件、可修件、消耗件预测模型；以及持续备件保障中，根据六种故障模式，对于不可修件，采用随机过程中的更新过程建立其需求量的计算模型，对于故障分布函数复杂，常规方法难于求解的情况，本研究采用MonteCarlo法模拟故障次数，计算不可修件的需求量；对于可修件，根据不同维修方法对备件寿命周期的影响，本研究引用“维修度”量化维修程度，应用遗传算法优化维修度的参数估算值，用广义更新过程建立可修件需求量模型。最后，运用算例检验模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the progress of science and technology and the rapid development of the aircraft manufacturing industry, China has its own intellectual property rights, the "new turbofan jet regional passenger aircraft" (ARJ21), which conforms to the international airworthiness standard, has successfully landed and first flew successfully. The following issues of aviation spare parts support are put on the agenda, and in the aviation spare parts support system, spare parts support is one of the key issues. Based on the modern advanced PBL support theory and ARJ21 as the object of study, this paper studies the methods of aviation spare parts support, and constructs the model of aviation spare parts support process and support capability evaluation based on PBL. Based on the entropy weight prediction model of support precision, this paper puts forward the economic analysis method and content of aviation spare parts support. Finally, taking ARJ21 as an example, based on PBL theory, the spare parts support of ARJ21 is divided into two stages: initial support and continuous support. The corresponding spare parts support model is put forward respectively, and the model is quantitatively verified with relevant data. PBL's support theory has been widely used in the support activities of military aircraft, and has made great achievements. However, in the field of civil aircraft, this method is not common. This paper first illustrates the PBL support process, describes the probability sequence operation of the spare parts support process, and then clarifies the relationship between the reliability of civil aircraft based on PBL and the spare parts quantity. The reliability of aircraft is closely related to the quantity of spare parts, and the quantity of spare parts is closely related to the inherent failure rate, utilization rate, inventory, maintenance cycle and fleet size of the product. In this paper, under the assumption of fleet size NN50, the relationship between aircraft reliability and spare parts is obtained by using MATLAB software under the condition of maintenance cycle tr=30 day or 60 day, utilization rate 尾 0. 5 or 0. 8, effective utilization ratio A0. 8 or 0. 95. Secondly, the information entropy weight theory is used to discuss the support precision of the aviation spare parts support system, the weight of each error evaluation index is allocated, the variation coefficient of each single prediction method is calculated, and the weight of each error evaluation index is calculated. The weight of the single prediction method and the combined weight coefficient matrix are determined. Finally, the accuracy of the entropy weight prediction model is proved by an example. Finally, the economy of aviation spare parts support based on PBL is analyzed. Here, first of all, based on the obtained financial statements of aviation spare parts guarantee, the financial statements are audited by using the financial analysis software, and the structural financial statements are generated according to the audit report, the synthetic cash flow statement, This paper analyzes the sensitivity of the profit and loss factors of security costs, the sustainability of security activities based on van Horne model, the economic added value of security activities, the free cash flow, the surplus situation based on K-S model and marginal model; The Ataman model is used to evaluate the success of the guarantee activity, the Wale index is used to evaluate the credit ability of the guarantee activity, and the Labaport model is used to evaluate the guarantee value. In the aviation spare parts support strategy based on PBL, based on ARJ21, this paper puts forward the prediction model of the turnover parts, repairable parts and consumables in the initial spare parts support, and in the continuous spare parts support, according to the six failure modes, for the non-repairable parts, The calculation model of the demand is established by using the renewal process in the random process. For the case of complex fault distribution function and difficult to be solved by the conventional method, the MonteCarlo method is used to simulate the number of faults and to calculate the demand of the unrepairable parts. For repairable parts, according to the influence of different maintenance methods on the life cycle of spare parts, this study uses "maintenance degree" to quantify the maintenance degree, and applies genetic algorithm to optimize the parameter estimation value of maintenance degree. The repairable demand model is established by the generalized renewal process. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：V267

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