基于LEAP模型的吉林省钢铁工业碳减排路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 06:21

本文关键词：基于LEAP模型的吉林省钢铁工业碳减排路径研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,以人为活动引起的温室气体排放为主要原因的全球气候变暖已成为国际社会公认的重大环境问题和挑战。钢铁工业作为中国主要CO_2排放源之一,具有巨大的碳减排潜力。吉林省作为东北老工业基地和全国高碳区之一,钢铁工业亦存在较大的节能减排潜力,提出客观具体的产业调整及碳减排政策,对促进当地钢铁能源、环境与经济协调发展十分必要。本文以吉林省钢铁工业能耗与碳排放为研究对象,结合计量经济学方法,构建吉林省钢铁工业生命周期能耗-碳排放LEAP预测模型,设置基准情景、新政策情景和低碳情景参数,基于预测结果进行单因素分析,并引入和评估具体节能低碳技术,明确各项技术应用的优先顺序,制定具体的钢铁低碳发展行动战略。研究结果表明:1.“十二五”期间,钢铁工业能耗与碳排放均于2013年达峰,2015年大幅下降至最小值。2.在常规生产工序调整方面,基准情景能耗于2020年达峰至7.01Mtce,新政策情景和低碳情景能耗自2015年逐年下降,2030年三个情景能耗较基准年的节能率分别为6%,13%和20%。基准情景碳排放于2020年达峰至17.58Mt,新政策情景和低碳情景逐年下降,2030年碳减排率分别为7%,11%和16%。评估废钢再循环时,2015年短流程生产1吨电炉钢可比转炉钢减少能耗0.53tce,节能率达76%,CO_2减排1.17t,减排率为68%。3.当进行单因素分析时,发现粗钢产量、高炉炼铁能源强度、铁钢比、热轧设备大型化、热轧能源强度、烧结能源强度、转炉大型化、烧结大型化对碳排放的正向影响依次减小;高炉大型化、电炉比、粗钢/钢材、高炉比、冷轧比对系统碳排放的负向影响依次减小。4.当进一步考虑节能低碳技术时,技术引进相比于工序调整能够起到更大的作用。与常规工序调整相比,引入节能低碳技术后,2030年三个情景能耗较基准年的节能率分别为16%、29%和38%,碳减排率分别为17%,25%和33%。针对吉林省钢铁工业当前存在问题,依据单因素分析和节能低碳技术评估,提出具体碳减排路径如下:(1)优先在钢铁联合企业发展“废钢-电炉”短流程生产,提高电炉用电效率和大型化比例;(2)“铁矿石-转炉”长流程生产须重点优先化解过剩产能,提升高炉炼铁工艺水平和降低铁钢比;(3)考虑负向影响时,须重点优先提升大型高炉、电炉的工艺水平及能效;(4)引进节能低碳技术时,近期应优先在大中型钢铁企业引进锅炉全部燃烧高炉煤气、低热值伴生气联合循环发电、旋切式高风温顶热风炉技术和能源管理中心。钢铁工业碳减排路径研究可为决策者制定钢铁工业低碳发展政策以及应对气候变化中长期战略提供理论依据和行动指南,并有利于吉林省尽早实现工业生态化和地区经济成功转型。
[Abstract]:In recent years, global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has become a major environmental problem and challenge recognized by the international community. Iron and steel industry is one of the main sources of CO_2 emissions in China. Jilin Province as an old industrial base in Northeast China and one of the high-carbon regions in China, iron and steel industry also has a large potential for energy conservation and emission reduction, and put forward objective and specific industrial adjustment and carbon emission reduction policies. It is necessary to promote the coordinated development of local iron and steel energy, environment and economy. This paper takes the energy consumption and carbon emission of iron and steel industry in Jilin Province as the research object and combines the econometric method. The LEAP prediction model of energy consumption and carbon emission in the life cycle of Jilin iron and steel industry is constructed, and the parameters of benchmark scenario, new policy scenario and low carbon scenario are set up, and the single factor analysis is carried out based on the prediction results. And the introduction and evaluation of specific energy-saving low-carbon technology, clear priorities for the application of each technology, the formulation of specific low-carbon iron and steel development action strategy. The research results show that the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. The energy consumption and carbon emission of iron and steel industry reached its peak in 2013 and dropped to the minimum value of .2.In 2015, the energy consumption and carbon emission of iron and steel industry were adjusted in the conventional production process. The energy consumption of the base scenario reached the peak in 2020 to 7.01 Mtce.The energy consumption of the new policy scenario and the low carbon scenario decreased year by year from 2015. In 2030, the energy saving rates of the three scenarios compared with the base year were 613% and 20%, respectively. The carbon emissions from the baseline scenarios reached the peak of 17.58 Mt in 2020. The new policy scenario and low carbon scenario decreased year by year. In 2030, the carbon emission reduction rates were 7% and 16% respectively. In 2015, the energy consumption of 1 ton EAF steel was reduced by 0.53 t compared with converter steel, and the energy saving rate was 76%. The emission reduction rate is 68 / 3.When the single factor analysis, it is found that the output of crude steel, the energy intensity of blast furnace ironmaking, the ratio of iron to steel, the large scale of hot rolling equipment, the energy intensity of hot rolling, the energy intensity of sintering and the large scale of converter. The positive effect of sintering on carbon emission decreases in turn. The negative effects of large blast furnace, electric furnace ratio, rough steel / steel, blast furnace ratio and cold rolling ratio on carbon emission decreased in turn. 4. When further consideration was given to energy saving and low carbon technology. Technology introduction can play a greater role than the process adjustment. Compared with conventional process adjustment, the energy saving rate of the three scenarios in 2030 is 16% compared with the base year after the introduction of energy saving and low-carbon technology. The carbon emission reduction rates of 29% and 38 are 17% and 33% respectively. In view of the current problems in the iron and steel industry in Jilin Province, the assessment is based on single factor analysis and energy saving and low carbon technology. The specific carbon abatement path is as follows: (1) priority should be given to the development of short process production of "scrap steel and electric furnace" in the iron and steel joint enterprise, so as to improve the electric furnace power efficiency and large scale proportion; 2) the long process of "iron-converter" production should focus on reducing excess production capacity, improving the ironmaking process level of blast furnace and reducing the ratio of iron and steel; (3) when considering negative effects, priority should be given to upgrading the technological level and energy efficiency of large blast furnaces and electric furnaces; When introducing energy saving and low carbon technology, priority should be given to the introduction of boiler burning blast furnace gas and low calorific value associated gas combined cycle power generation in large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in the near future. The research on carbon emission reduction path of iron and steel industry can provide theoretical basis and action for decision makers to formulate low carbon development policy and to deal with climate change in the medium and long term strategy. A guide. And is advantageous to Jilin Province as soon as possible realizes the industrial ecology and the region economy successful transformation.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;X322

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