产能过剩背景下中国煤炭产业发展战略研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 15:33

本文关键词：产能过剩背景下中国煤炭产业发展战略研究　出处：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,我国经济发展模式已进入了中高速发展的新常态,经济正处于“三期叠加”时期,煤炭产业随之进入“四期并存”的新阶段,煤炭产业发展必须适应新形势要求。为妥善应对煤炭产业下行压力,保障煤炭产业持续健康发展,本文主要基于当前煤炭产业产能过剩这一实际背景,旨在研究中国煤炭产业发展战略。基于对世界能源产业发展趋势、煤炭产业发展现状和煤炭产业发展战略三方面的文献综述,全面分析了中国煤炭产业发展的战略环境,并通过系统动力学思想和情景分析法重点模拟仿真了煤炭产业市场供需及煤炭产能的变动趋势,并据此提出了煤炭产业发展的战略及政策建议。一是基于煤炭资源与产能现状,通过PEST方法,从政治和法律环境、经济环境、技术环境以及社会文化和生态环境四方面对经济新常态下中国煤炭产业发展的宏观环境进行了详细分析;通过SWOT方法,阐述了煤炭产业当前面临的有利和不利因素;通过对煤炭产业发展所处的内、外部战略环境进行具体探析,对目前煤炭产业的发展前景有了准确明晰的定位。二是建立了中国煤炭产业发展的SD模型,将影响中国煤炭产业发展的经济、资源环境、人口等的相关因素纳入模型,以GDP、人口总量、煤炭产能、煤炭价格作为水平变量,以年GDP变化量、年人口增加值、年淘汰落后产能、煤炭价格变化量作为控制变量,并通过了系统的量纲一致性和拟合度检验。通过VensimPLE软件对模型进行系统仿真,结合研究目的,重点分析了我国煤炭市场供需及煤炭产能的变化趋势。三是采用情景分析法,划定了基准情景,设置了煤炭消费比重降低、煤炭强度降低、煤炭进口量降低和落后产能淘汰率加大四种不同的仿真情景,对煤炭产业发展的SD模型进行模拟仿真,重点分析了 2011-2030年不同情景对于煤炭产能过剩的调控作用。模拟仿真结果表明,就不同情景对煤炭过剩产能的调控力度而言,降低煤炭强度和降低煤炭消费对于煤炭产能过剩有一定的调控作用,但并不显著,增大落后产能淘汰率对产能的调节作用最明显,其次是减少煤炭进口量。最后,基于煤炭产业发展战略环境的分析,确立了中国煤炭产业发展的指导思想、总体战略目标及战略选择;对应不同模拟情景,依次从调整能源消费结构、提高煤炭利用效率、推进煤炭国际贸易和优化煤炭产能结构四方面对当前我国煤炭产业发展提出了相应的政策建议,为我国煤炭产业发展提供了参考依据。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic development model has entered the new normal of high-speed development, the economy is in the "three superposition" period, the coal industry has entered a new stage of "four phases coexist". The development of coal industry must meet the requirements of the new situation. In order to properly deal with the downward pressure of the coal industry and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the coal industry, this paper is mainly based on the actual background of overcapacity in the current coal industry. In order to study the development strategy of China's coal industry, based on the world energy industry development trend, coal industry development status and coal industry development strategy three aspects of literature review. The strategic environment of China's coal industry development is comprehensively analyzed, and the changing trend of coal industry market supply and demand and coal production capacity is simulated by system dynamics and scenario analysis. Based on the status of coal resources and production capacity, through PEST method, from the political and legal environment, economic environment. The macro environment of China's coal industry development under the new normal state of economy is analyzed in detail from the four aspects of technological environment, social culture and ecological environment. Through the method of SWOT, this paper expounds the favorable and unfavorable factors that the coal industry is facing at present. Through the specific analysis of the internal and external strategic environment of the coal industry development, there is an accurate and clear positioning of the current coal industry development prospects. Second, the SD model of the coal industry development in China is established. The factors affecting the development of China's coal industry, such as economy, resource environment, population and so on, are incorporated into the model. The annual GDP changes are taken as horizontal variables, such as GDP, total population, coal production capacity and coal price. Annual population increase, annual elimination of backward production capacity, coal price change as a control variable. And through the system dimension consistency and fitness test, the model is simulated by VensimPLE software, combined with the purpose of the research. The change trend of coal supply and demand and coal production capacity in China is analyzed emphatically. Thirdly, the benchmark scenario is defined by scenario analysis, and the proportion of coal consumption is reduced and the coal intensity is reduced. There are four different simulation scenarios of coal import volume reduction and backward capacity elimination rate increase, and the SD model of coal industry development is simulated. The effects of different scenarios on the control of coal overcapacity in 2011-2030 are analyzed. The simulation results show that different scenarios control the coal overcapacity. Reducing the intensity of coal and reducing coal consumption has a certain regulatory effect on coal overcapacity, but it is not significant. Increasing the elimination rate of backward production capacity has the most obvious regulating effect on production capacity. Finally, based on the analysis of the strategic environment of coal industry development, the guiding ideology, overall strategic objectives and strategic choice of the development of China's coal industry are established. Corresponding to different simulation scenarios, from the adjustment of energy consumption structure, improve the efficiency of coal use. In order to promote the international trade of coal and optimize the structure of coal production capacity, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the development of China's coal industry at present, and provides a reference basis for the development of China's coal industry.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21

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