中国钢铁出口贸易经济效益和环境影响评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 21:09

本文关键词：中国钢铁出口贸易经济效益和环境影响评价研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)后,钢铁出口量和出口额快速提高,钢铁出口贸易取得了一定的成果,但钢铁产业作为高污染和高能耗的行业,钢铁出口贸易的增长也给环境带来了一定的影响,因此需要全面客观地评价中国钢铁出口贸易的经济效益和环境影响,判断中国钢铁出口贸易的得失。本文基于此,对1994—2015年间中国钢铁出口贸易的经济效益和环境影响分别展开研究,首先概述了发展状况,对可能影响经济效益和环境影响的因素做了探讨;然后通过构建评价指标体系度量了各年度中国钢铁出口贸易经济效益指数和环境影响指数的大小,并从静态角度作了分析;之后通过向量自回归(VAR)模型研究了经济效益指数和环境影响指数和其影响因素的动态关系,包括利用格兰杰因果检验分析了经济效益指数、钢铁出口额、出口钢铁产品集中度和钢铁显性比较优势指数之间的格兰杰因果关系,环境影响指数和进出口含污量占比之间的格兰杰因果关系,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分别分析了各变量发生冲击时对经济效益指数和环境影响指数产生的影响;最后对中国钢铁出口贸易经济效益和环境影响进行了综合分析并提出了政策建议。研究结果表明,1994—2015年间,中国钢铁出口贸易经济效益指数总体呈上升趋势,中国钢铁出口贸易环境影响指数呈上下波动趋势;中国钢铁出口贸易规模对经济效益长期的提升起引导作用,中国钢铁出口贸易规模、出口贸易结构和出口贸易竞争力对经济效益短期的提升有积极作用,进出口含污量占比对环境影响长期和短期的提升均有积极作用;长期内经济效益的增长伴随着所造成环境污染的减轻,短期内伴随着所造成环境污染的加剧,但环境污染加剧的趋势得到了遏制。最后提出政策建议:坚定发展钢铁出口贸易;坚持绿色发展中国钢铁产业;促进中国钢铁出口贸易创新发展。
[Abstract]:After China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the export volume and export volume of iron and steel have increased rapidly, and the export trade of steel has made certain achievements, but the steel industry is a highly polluting and energy-consuming industry. The growth of iron and steel export trade also has a certain impact on the environment, so it is necessary to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the economic and environmental impact of China's iron and steel export trade. Judging the gains and losses of China's iron and steel export trade. Based on this, this paper studies the economic benefits and environmental impact of China's iron and steel export trade from 1994 to 2015, first of all, it summarizes the development situation of China's iron and steel export trade. The factors that may affect economic efficiency and environmental impact are discussed. Then the paper measures the economic benefit index and the environmental impact index of China's iron and steel export trade by constructing the evaluation index system, and makes an analysis from the static point of view. Then the dynamic relationship between the economic benefit index and the environmental impact index and its influencing factors are studied by using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, including the Granger causality test to analyze the economic benefit index. Granger causality between iron and steel exports, concentration of export steel products and dominant comparative advantage index of iron and steel, Granger causality between environmental impact index and proportion of import and export pollution. The impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the impact on the economic benefit index and the environmental impact index respectively. Finally, the economic benefit and environmental impact of China's iron and steel export trade are comprehensively analyzed and policy recommendations are put forward. The results show that China's iron and steel export trade will be carried out from 1994 to 2015. The economic benefit index of China's iron and steel export trade is on the whole rising, and the environmental impact index of China's iron and steel export trade is fluctuating up and down. The scale of China's iron and steel export trade plays a leading role in the long-term improvement of economic benefits. The scale of China's iron and steel export trade, the structure of export trade and the competitiveness of export trade play a positive role in the short-term improvement of economic benefits. The proportion of import and export pollution has a positive effect on the long-term and short-term promotion of environmental impact; In the long run, the increase of economic benefits is accompanied by the reduction of environmental pollution, and the aggravation of environmental pollution in the short term. However, the trend of increasing environmental pollution has been contained. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward: developing steel export trade firmly; Adhere to the green development of China's iron and steel industry; Promote the innovation and development of China's iron and steel export trade.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;F752.62;X820.3

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