工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率的门槛效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 15:08

本文关键词：工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率的门槛效应分析　出处：《宏观经济研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在低碳经济领域,能同时兼顾二氧化碳排放量减少和产出增加的一个核心指标是碳生产率。本文利用1984—2013年数据分别对工业部门与国民经济总体的碳生产率进行了测算,发现工业碳生产率始终低于国民经济总体的碳生产率。经理论分析,提出工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率均存在着"门槛效应"的假说,继而运用门槛回归方法对三者之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:工业化、城镇化均是决定工业化、城镇化与工业碳生产率关系的重要门槛。在工业化水平较低阶段,工业化显著促进了工业碳生产率的提高;而在工业化水平较高阶段,工业化则抑制了工业碳生产率的提高;在城镇化水平较低阶段,工业化显著促进了工业碳生产率的提高;在城镇化水平较高阶段,城镇化对工业碳生产率则具有明显的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:In the low-carbon economy. Carbon productivity is one of the core indicators that can simultaneously reduce carbon dioxide emissions and increase output. This paper uses data from 1984 to 2013 to analyze the carbon productivity of both the industrial sector and the national economy as a whole. Measuring. It is found that the industrial carbon productivity is always lower than the total carbon productivity of the national economy. Through theoretical analysis, the hypothesis that industrialization and urbanization have "threshold effect" on industrial carbon productivity is put forward. Then we use the threshold regression method to test the relationship between the three. The results show that industrialization and urbanization are the determinants of industrialization. The important threshold of the relationship between urbanization and industrial carbon productivity. At the stage of low industrialization level, industrialization has significantly promoted the improvement of industrial carbon productivity. In the higher level of industrialization, industrialization inhibited the increase of industrial carbon productivity. In the low level of urbanization, industrialization has significantly promoted the improvement of industrial carbon productivity; In the higher level of urbanization, urbanization has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial carbon productivity.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学经济学院;绵阳师范学院经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于碳生产率的工业转型升级路径研究”(项目编号:15YJCZH046)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F299.21;F424;X196
【正文快照】： 一、问题提出我国在2014年11月的《中美气候变化联合声明》中宣布,计划2030年左右二氧化碳(C02)排放达到峰值,这给我国能源结构、产业结构转型带来了巨大的压力。工业部门是我国经济的最大主体,既是能源和各种原材料的生产者,也是能源的主要消耗者。化石(碳基)能源的消费是

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