基于SD的工业碳排放情景模拟及行业结构调整研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 02:17

本文关键词：基于SD的工业碳排放情景模拟及行业结构调整研究　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前严峻的气候形势下,发展低碳经济的必要性已在世界范围内达成共识。为应对气候变化,温家宝总理在2009年哥本哈根会议上承诺“至2020年,中国碳排放强度将较2005年下降40%-45%”。工业作为碳排放量最大的国民经济部门,为如期实现碳减排目标,对工业行业实行碳减排、发展低碳工业已然势在必行。如何实现工业经济发展与节能减排之间的均衡,以达成工业经济发展与节能减排的共赢成为了亟待解决的难题。首先,本文就我国工业行业经济发展、能源消耗现状进行分析。利用排放系数法测算工业碳排放量和碳排放强度,分析工业碳排放现状。通过文献梳理,分析工业碳排放影响因素;从工业各分行业的角度,分别将工业三大分行业(采矿业,制造业,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)碳排放强度与各碳排放影响因素(工业行业规模、工业行业结构、能源消费结构和技术进步)进行Johansen协整检验,验证各工业分行业碳排放强度与上述各影响因素之间存在长期均衡关系,为构建工业碳排放系统动力学(SD)模型反馈回路提供依据。在此基础之上,利用系统动力学(SD)理论,构建工业碳排放SD模型。基于前述对工业行业经济发展、碳排放现状及其影响因素的分析,确定系统边界和反馈回路,将模型划分为人口、经济发展、能源消费和碳排放四个子系统。应用Venism PLE软件对SD模型进行直观性测试、有效性检验和积分误差测试,验证模型的有效性和稳定性。经验证,模型具有可行性,可用于情景模拟研究。之后,应用构建的工业碳排放SD模型,基于工业行业结构、工业行业能源消费结构和科技投入分别对工业碳排放系统进行单项调整与情景模拟;分析各情景模式下工业经济、能源消耗及碳排放变化情况、工业碳排放强度目标的完成情况;通过与基准情景进行比较,分析特定因素变量对系统所产生的影响。鉴于单项调整存在一定的局限性(现实中相关参数受可行性与客观条件的制约,存在着一定的可调控范围),将工业行业结构、工业行业能源消费结构和科技投入进行有效组合,设置工业行业结构综合调整方案进行SD情景模拟。比较各方案下经济、能源消耗碳排放相关指标的运行情况及工业碳排放强度目标的实现情况,得出最佳调整方案(调控结果最接近工业碳排放强度目标,且能够实现经济增长)。通过分析和比较各项工业行业结构调整方案下经济及能源消耗碳排放相应指标的仿真结果,得出以下结论:(1)工业碳减排与经济增长并不矛盾,在合适的政策引导下二者是可以兼顾的,双赢可期。但工业行业在当前发展趋势下,将不会达成“2020年工业碳排放强度较2005年下降50%”的目标。(2)对工业行业结构进行适当调整(适当调增电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值比重,并相应调减制造业增加值比重)时,对工业经济增长的影响较小,且能够明显降低工业能源消费量、工业二氧化碳排放总量及工业碳排放强度同期水平。(3)在适度范围内优化能源消费结构(逐渐降低工业煤炭消费比重,增大天然气和其他能源消费比重,适当调节石油消费比重)能够明显减缓工业二氧化碳排放量增长、降低工业碳排放强度,且不会影响工业经济稳定增长。(4)加大科技投入水平,提高科技投入占工业增加值的比重,对工业增加值的影响较小,对减缓工业能源消费总量增长有促进作用,有利于提升能源利用效率,减缓工业二氧化碳排放增长,降低工业碳排放强度。最后,为我国实现工业行业低碳发展提出建议:对工业行业结构进行调整,对高耗能行业进行整改;优化工业行业能源消费结构;加强技术创新,努力提高低碳技术水平。
[Abstract]:The current climatic situation, the necessity of the development of low carbon economy has reached a consensus in the world. To cope with climate change, Premier Wen Jiabao at the meeting of 2009 in Copenhagen promised to 2020, the carbon emission intensity of China will be lower than in 2005 40%-45%. "As the largest carbon emissions of industrial sectors of the national economy, in order to achieve carbon the emission reduction targets on schedule, the implementation of carbon emission reduction of the industrial sector, the development of low carbon industry is imperative. How to realize between industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in equilibrium, to achieve industrial economic development and energy saving and emission reduction in total wins has become a problem urgently to be solved. First of all, the economic development of our country industry, analyzing the current situation of energy consumption. The discharge of industrial carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the amount and intensity of carbon emissions, analysis of the current situation of industrial carbon emissions. Through literature review, analysis of industrial carbon emissions due to impact ; from industry sub industry perspective, the three major industrial sectors respectively (mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry) carbon emission intensity and the carbon emission factors (industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and technological progress) of Johansen co the whole test verification, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial factors of carbon emissions and the impact for the construction of industrial carbon emission system dynamics (SD) model feedback loop is provided. On this basis, using system dynamics (SD) theory, construction of industrial carbon emissions SD model. The economic development of the industry based on the analysis of the present situation and its influencing factors of carbon emissions, to determine the boundaries of the system and the feedback loop, the model is divided into population, economic development, energy consumption and carbon emissions of four subsystems. The application of Venism PLE software for SD model Type of direct test, validity test and integral error test, verify the validity of the model and stability. Verification results show that the model is feasible and can be used to simulate the scene. After the industrial carbon emissions SD model construction, industrial structure based on industrial sector energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology of industrial carbon discharge system of individual adjustment and scenario simulation; the analysis of industrial economic scenarios, changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions, industrial carbon emissions intensity target completion; compared with the baseline scenario comparison, analysis of specific factors that influence variables of the system. In view of the limitations of the individual adjustment (constraints. The relevant parameters in reality by the objective conditions and feasibility of the existence of certain adjustable range), the industrial structure, industrial energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology into The effective combination of SD scenarios set up the comprehensive adjustment of industry structure. The industrial scheme scheme economy, implementation of carbon emission from energy consumption indicators related to the operating situation and the industrial carbon intensity target, the optimal adjustment scheme (regulation is closest to the industrial carbon intensity targets, and can achieve economic growth). The consumption of carbon emission index of the corresponding simulation results through analysis and comparison of the energy economy and industrial structure adjustment plan, draw the following conclusions: (1) industrial carbon emissions and economic growth is not a contradiction in the appropriate policy under the guidance of the two can be considered, but the industry can be win-win. In the current development trend that will not be reached "in 2020 the industrial carbon emission intensity decreased by 50% compared with 2005." (2) to adjust the industrial structure (appropriate increase electricity, heat, gas and water The proportion of the added value of production and supply industry, and correspondingly reduce the manufacturing value added ratio), less impact on the industrial economic growth, and can significantly reduce the energy consumption of industry, industrial emissions and industrial carbon emission intensity level of the same period. (3) the optimization of energy consumption structure in the moderate range decreased gradually (industrial the proportion of coal consumption, increasing natural gas and other energy consumption, adjust the oil consumption ratio) can significantly reduce the industrial carbon dioxide emissions growth, reduce industrial carbon emission intensity, and will not affect the stable growth of industrial economy. (4) to increase investment in science and technology level, increase science and technology investment accounted for the proportion of industrial added value, the industrial added. Effect of value, to reduce the industrial energy consumption has a role in promoting growth, is conducive to improving energy efficiency, slow growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, reduce industrial Finally, suggestions for China to achieve low carbon development in industrial sectors are put forward: adjust the industrial structure, rectify the high energy consuming industries, optimize the energy consumption structure of industrial sectors, strengthen technological innovation, and strive to improve low carbon technology level.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F424

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