海外油气勘探项目风险评价及控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 23:24

本文关键词：海外油气勘探项目风险评价及控制研究　出处：《西安石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在我国能源安全问题日益凸显的情况下,我国石油企业不断加快“走出去”的步伐,同时“一带一路”战略、美国“亚太再平衡”、地缘政治博弈等都为中国石油企业与其他国家开展油气资源开发合作提供了契机,但是面临的项目风险评价及优选决策问题也在增加。海外油气勘探开发不仅依赖于资源国地质、油田勘探技术和方式,而且还受资源国政治环境、经济形势、投资环境和社会环境等多方面因素制约,具有高投入、高风险的特点。这是目前我国石油企业在海外寻求油气勘探项目合作时迫切需要解决的问题。本文根据国内外研究学者的分析,从项目风险指标、权重确定、风险评价三方面系统总结了有关学者在海外石油勘探项目中采用的方法,由此分析出现阶段我国海外油气勘探项目风险评价中存在的不足。本文在此基础上给出新方法,首先利用主观与客观相结合的“HHM-WBS”法识别出海外油气勘探项目的主要风险因素,并结合一线专家学者调查问卷的结果进行指标筛选,从而最终构建具有8个一级风险和27个二级风险的评价指标体系,并运用“德尔菲法”和“熵值法”的组合赋权方法,确定各级指标权重。然后,在现有风险评估方法进行分析比较的基础上,根据海外油气勘探项目风险的特点选择适合该研究对象的风险评估方法,并以我国石油企业在国外的三个海外项目进行进行实证分析,实证分析的结果证明了评估方法的有效性和可靠性,并克服了以往常用方法单一比较的不足。最后,针对海外油气勘探项目风险因素的特点,从风险回避、风险预防、风险转移、风险自留和风险监控五个方面提出风险控制的措施。
[Abstract]:In China's energy security problems have become increasingly prominent in the case of China's oil companies continue to accelerate the pace of "going out", and "The Belt and Road" strategy, the United States' Asia Pacific rebalancing, geopolitical game and so on for China oil companies and other countries to carry out oil and gas resources provides an opportunity to send cooperation, but project risk evaluation and optimization decision problem faced is also increasing. Oil and gas exploration and development overseas depends not only on the resources of geology, oil exploration technology and methods, but also by the resources in the political environment, economic situation, many factors of investment environment and social environment, with high investment, high risk characteristics. This is at present, China's oil companies to seek cooperation in overseas oil and gas exploration project when the urgent need to solve the problem. According to the domestic and foreign research scholars analysis, determine the weight from the project risk indicators, risk assessment, three Summarized the methods of relevant scholars used in overseas oil exploration project, the analysis of the deficiencies of risk assessment stage of China's overseas oil and gas exploration projects. A new method is given on the basis of this paper, firstly, the main method of risk identification of overseas oil and gas exploration project combining the subjective and objective of "HHM-WBS" the factors, combined with the line of experts questionnaire of index selection, and ultimately build a 8 level and 27 level two risk risk evaluation index system, and using the Delphi method and combination weighting method, entropy value method to determine the weights at all levels. Then, the existing risk assessment methods on the basis of analysis and comparison, according to the risk assessment method for the study of the characteristics of overseas oil and gas exploration project risk, and to China's petroleum enterprises in foreign countries Three overseas projects carried out empirical analysis, empirical analysis of the results proved the validity of the evaluation method and reliability, and to overcome the shortcomings of previous methods of single comparison. Finally, according to the characteristics of risk factors of overseas oil and gas exploration project, the risk avoidance, risk prevention, risk transfer, put forward the risk control measures five in terms of risk retention and risk monitoring.

【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F125

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