基于系统动力学的我国钴资源需求预测分析

发布时间：2018-01-15 17:21

  本文关键词：基于系统动力学的我国钴资源需求预测分析　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 钴资源 消耗预测 系统动力学

【摘要】：钴资源是经济社会发展的一种重要的战略矿产资源,它被应用在包括电池制造、电子产品制造以及硬质合金制造在内的多项领域。随着我国国民经济不断发展,我国钴资源消费水平也随之日益提高,同时因为环保意识以及移动设备逐渐普及,近年来钴的消耗量进入了快速增长期。自2007年以来,我国一直保持着钴资源最大消费国的地位,并且在可预见的未来我国钴资源的消耗量将会一直保持在高位运行。但是同时,我国钴资源的储量仅占世界总储量的1%左右。目前来看,我国钴资源的供应存在着较大的潜在风险,这不仅影响着我国钴资源相关产业的正常运行,同时有可能威胁到我国整体国民经济的健康发展。在这一背景下,对钴资源未来的消耗量和可供应量进行预测,同时明确钴资源应用的范围与数量,能够对我国未来钴资源产业发展规划起到指导作用,对我国国民经济的可持续发展有着重要意义。本文首先对钴资源的相关资料进行了收集与分析,研究并指出了全球范围内与中国的钴资源以及相关产业的发展历史及现状,并对其储量、产量、消费量、贸易量、价格变动进行了分别描述分析。在此基础之上,我们以矿产资源需求理论以及经济学供需理论为指导,通过系统动力学的理论方法,对我国钴资源的消耗与供给进行了分析,寻找了与其相关的主要因素,并以此为框架建立了钴资源消耗量系统动力学模型。模型当中含有钴的生产、消耗、进口以及供需四个子系统。我们以2006-2015年相关数据为基础对系统动力学模型进行了模拟仿真检验,并运用通过检验模型对钴资源2016-2026年消耗量以及供应量在不同的假设情景下进行了预测。通过模型灵敏度检验与不同情景下钴资源消耗量预测我们可以得知,对我国钴资源消耗量影响较大的有GDP增长率、人口自然增长率以及产业结构的比率,其中影响最大的为GDP增长率且其与GDP增长率的大小呈正相关关系同时,通过基准情景下的预测我们可以得知,钴资源消耗量与可供应量量在未来会保持较为良好的增长趋势,但消耗量的增幅会超过可供应量的增幅,导致国内钴资源逐渐出现供需缺口并逐渐变大。另外,基准情景下,我国钴的主要消耗部门为电池领域,而主要供应部门为进口。文章在最后基于以上状况,提出了相应的结论与政策建议。
[Abstract]:Cobalt resource is an important strategic mineral resource in economic and social development. It has been used in many fields, including battery manufacturing, electronic products manufacturing and cemented carbide manufacturing. The consumption level of cobalt resource in our country is also increasing day by day, at the same time, because of the environmental protection consciousness and the gradual popularization of mobile equipment, the consumption of cobalt has entered a period of rapid growth in recent years. Since 2007. China has always maintained its position as the largest consumer of cobalt resources, and the consumption of cobalt resources will remain at a high level in the foreseeable future. But at the same time. The reserves of cobalt resources in China only account for about 1% of the total reserves in the world. At present, the supply of cobalt resources in China has great potential risks, which not only affects the normal operation of the related industries of cobalt resources in China. At the same time, it may threaten the healthy development of the whole national economy in China. Under this background, the future consumption and available supply of cobalt resources are predicted, and the scope and quantity of the application of cobalt resources are defined. Can play a guiding role in the future cobalt resources industry development planning, the sustainable development of China's national economy is of great significance. Firstly, this paper collected and analyzed the related data of cobalt resources. This paper studies and points out the development history and present situation of cobalt resources and related industries in the world with China, and analyzes its reserves, production, consumption and trade volume. On the basis of this, we use the theory of mineral resource demand and the theory of economic supply and demand as the guidance, through the theoretical method of system dynamics. This paper analyzes the consumption and supply of cobalt resources in China, finds out the main factors related to it, and establishes a system dynamic model of cobalt resource consumption based on this framework. The model includes the production and consumption of cobalt. Four subsystems of import and supply and demand. Based on the relevant data from 2006 to 2015, we simulated and tested the system dynamics model. The consumption and supply of cobalt resources in 2016-2026 are predicted under different scenarios by using the test model. The sensitivity test of the model and the consumption of cobalt resources in different scenarios are used to predict the consumption of cobalt resources. You will know. The GDP growth rate, the natural population growth rate and the ratio of industrial structure have great influence on the consumption of cobalt resources in China. Among them, the GDP growth rate is the most important and it has a positive correlation with the GDP growth rate. At the same time, we can know through the forecast under the benchmark scenario. The consumption of cobalt resources and the amount of available supply will keep a good growth trend in the future, but the increase of consumption will exceed the increase of available supply, which leads to the domestic cobalt resources gradually appear supply and demand gap and gradually become larger. In the base scenario, the main consuming department of cobalt in China is battery field, while the main supply department is import. Based on the above situation, the paper puts forward the corresponding conclusions and policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：N941.3;F426.1
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本文编号：1429319