物流产业发展与能源消费关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 10:53

  本文关键词： 物流产业 能源消费 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应函数 方差分解　出处：《预测》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于我国1995~2014年相关统计数据,采用计量经济学方法检验物流产业发展与物流能源消费间的关系。研究表明:我国物流产业发展与能源消费间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,客货周转量和全社会固定资产投资对能源消费有负向影响,物流产业增加值与能源消费同向变动。能源消费和产业增加值是客货周转量的格兰杰原因、客货周转量是全社会固定资产投资的格兰杰原因。客货周转量、产业增加值和全社会固定资产投资对物流能源消费均有正向冲击。能源消费对客货周转量、产业增加值和全社会固定资产投资的贡献率均持续上升。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2014 in China, the relationship between the development of logistics industry and the consumption of logistics energy is tested by econometrics method. The results show that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the development of logistics industry and energy consumption in China. The turnover of passenger and goods and the investment in fixed assets of the whole society have a negative effect on energy consumption, and the added value of logistics industry changes in the same direction as energy consumption. Energy consumption and industry added value are the Granger reasons for the turnover of passenger and goods. Passenger and cargo turnover is the Granger cause of fixed asset investment in the whole society. The volume of passenger and cargo turnover, the added value of industry and the investment of fixed assets of the whole society have a positive impact on the consumption of logistics energy. The contribution rate of industry added value and the whole society fixed assets investment is rising continuously.
【作者单位】： 天津大学管理与经济学部;天津理工大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BGL013)
【分类号】：F224;F259.2;F426.2
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本文编号：1500347