康尼机电股票投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-02-25 06:00

本文关键词： 基本面分析价值投资轨道交通康尼机电　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从上世纪90年代国内资本市场建立以来,A股市场一直是一个波动剧烈、投机盛行、羊群效应明显的市场。市场参与者依靠博弈价差来获取利益。市场做出这样的选择的原因有二:其一,国内调控宏观经济的政策透明度不够,行政手段,财政政策,货币政策等调控举措与市场缺乏必要的互动,且调控政策一致性不足,经常出现政策的180度的转变,使市场参与者无法形成对政策调控思路的一致性预期,典型的是2015年的股灾前后政策巨变导致的市场崩溃,这在DDM模型中影响风险偏好,属于对于分母的政策变量,从历史轨迹来看,风险偏好对于A股市场价格的影响大于无风险利率,既然中长期市场看不清楚,并且国内市场由于金融实行分业监管,金融监管区块化,微观的资源配置由于政策短期推动非理性价格暴涨导致资源配置扭曲容易引起行政手段介入引发政策转向的预期,市场选择短期确定性价格博弈也是无奈之举;其二,由于国内证券法中没有集体诉讼制度和损害赔偿制度保护二级市场参与者,同时上市公司也缺乏前述制度的有力制约经常出现违法违规行为,财务造假、信披误导性陈述、公司治理不规范、内幕交易等行径严重阻碍市场参与者的理性参与资本市场。从理论上看上述的违法行为严重影响投资者对于公司的盈利预期的判断,属于对DDM模型中分子部分的干扰。这是微观公司层面对于市场价格博弈的解释。基于价格博弈的现实,要想在A股市场获得收益,关键的节点是对经济边际,政策边际,投资者交易心理边际变化的推断,即无风险利率趋势的推断以及风险偏好的推断,以及上市公司盈利预期的推断,前提是该公司的公司治理规范,财务报表真实。本文的主要目的是展示DDM模型中分子部分和分母部分的研究分析方法,即自上而下的基本面分析框架,以及选择合理的估值方法对公司进行估值,以探究投资中的更大的确定性。本文首先对康尼机电的核心竞争力进行分析,然后对其所处的轨道交通行业的基本面分析,对康尼机电的财务报表分析,对康尼机电的业绩分业务板块进行预测,并且对康尼机电上市以来市场给予的估值进行了分析,最后用相对估值法(PE)和绝对估值法(DDM)相结合的方法得出康尼机电的理论价格区间为9.73元—16.80元。借助康尼机电估值的实例,本文也想提供一个理性的上市公司基本面分析的逻辑与估值的方法,基于此来倡导价值投资。研究中的设定的估值与市场给予的估值是一个相互验证的命题,在首次研究公司,给予估值后需要连续跟进公司的财务报表跟新以及公司的资本运作行为,在新的预期基础上对公司的业绩进行预测,对公司的估值进行修正,维持一个相对准确的盈利预测,提高投资组合的收益率。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the domestic capital market in -10s, the A-share market has been volatile and speculative. Markets with obvious herding effects. Market participants rely on game spreads to obtain benefits. The market makes such choices for two reasons: first, the transparency of domestic macroeconomic control policies is not enough, administrative measures, and fiscal policies, Monetary policy and other regulatory measures lack the necessary interaction with the market, and the consistency of the control policy is insufficient, and often the policy changes of 180 degrees make market participants unable to form a consistent expectation of policy control ideas. Typically, the market collapse caused by the drastic changes in policy before and after the 2015 stock market crash, which affects risk preference in the DDM model, belongs to the policy variables for denominators. Risk preference has a greater impact on A-share market prices than risk-free interest rates. Since the medium- and long-term market is not clearly visible, and because the domestic market has implemented separate financial supervision, financial supervision has turned into blocks. The microcosmic resource allocation because the policy promotes the irrational price skyrocketing in the short term causes the resources allocation distortion to easily cause the administrative means to intervene to initiate the policy turn the anticipation, the market chooses the short-term deterministic price game is also helpless; second, Because there is no class-action litigation system or damage compensation system in the domestic securities law to protect the secondary market participants, at the same time, the listed companies also lack the strength of the aforementioned system to restrict the frequent occurrence of illegal acts, financial fraud, and misleading statements. Corporate governance is not standardized, insider trading and other practices seriously hinder the rational participation of market participants in the capital market. In theory, the above-mentioned illegal acts seriously affect investors' judgment on the company's profit expectations. This is the explanation of the market price game at the micro company level. Based on the reality of the price game, the key node in order to gain income in the A share market is the economic margin, the policy margin, and so on. The inference of the marginal change of investor's trading psychology, that is, the risk free interest rate trend, the risk preference, and the profit expectation of the listed company, is the premise of the company's corporate governance norm. The main purpose of this paper is to show the research and analysis methods of molecular part and denominator part of DDM model, that is, the top-down fundamental analysis framework, and to select a reasonable valuation method to evaluate the company. In order to explore the greater certainty in the investment. This paper first analyzes the core competitiveness of Coney Electromechanical, then analyzes the fundamental aspects of the rail transit industry, and analyzes the financial statements of Connie Electromechanical. The paper forecasts the performance of the company in the business sector, and analyzes the valuation given by the market since the listing of the company. Finally, the theoretical price range of Coney electromechanical is 9.73 yuan to 16.80 yuan by combining the relative valuation method (PE) with the absolute valuation method (DDM). This paper also wants to provide a rational logic and valuation method for fundamental analysis of listed companies, based on which value investment is advocated. The valuation set in the study and the valuation given by the market is a mutually validated proposition in the first study of the company. After the valuation is given, the company's financial statements and the new and capital operations of the company need to be continuously followed, the company's results are forecasted on the basis of new expectations, the company's valuation is revised, and a relatively accurate profit forecast is maintained. Increase the return on the portfolio.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F426.4

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