考虑技术成熟度和碳权持有成本的减排与交易联合决策研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 06:19

本文关键词： 总量控制与交易技术成熟度碳权交易多周期决策　出处：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球变暖成为世界各国广泛关注的问题,为实现减排目标,中国一方面出台强制性减排法律法规;另一方面积极推动碳权交易市场的建设。在总量控制与交易机制下,我国生产制造型企业将面临更加严峻的挑战。企业应该思考如何平衡经济效益与环境效益,如何调整生产计划、进行减排、碳资源配置决策使其成本最小。这些研究无论对企业还是对政府都具有非常重要的意义。基于这样的背景,本文构建了一个多周期的企业减排和碳权交易联合决策模型,本文的主要创新与贡献是在建模过程中把是否进行自净减排项目看做离散的决策变量,区别于其他产生固定减排量的自净项目,选题自净项目的效果是生产单位产品碳排放量的减少,这种自净效果可以延续下去;模型中考虑了自净技术的进步和成熟可以为企业带来自净成本的减少;企业在进行碳资源配置决策时,如果选择持有碳权不在交易市场上出售,相当于积压一部分流动资金不能用于其他投资,即企业需要承担相应的机会成本。本文以化工行业数据为算例,用Lingo软件求解确定性碳价模型、用VBA编程仿真实验得到了碳价随机情况下的企业最优决策组合,并对模型中重要参数进行数值实验,通过对结果的分析,本文得到以下结论:政府应该结合不同行业的碳排放总量、自净技术和自净成本等特点,合理设定分配的碳配额,碳配额太多,对企业进行自净减排的激励会减弱,碳配额太少,则会给企业带来巨大的减排压力,不利于企业发展;企业应该关注自净技术的发展,当技术成熟速度较快时,企业提前自净带来的购碳和碳权持有成本的减少量大于其带来的自净成本的增加量,应该选择较早自净;企业应该关注不同自净技术带来的减排效果,在决定实施何种自净项目时综合考虑自净成本、减排效果等来实现成本最小化的目标;企业持有碳权需要承担相应的机会成本,应该综合考虑自身的总排放、碳价等因素,选择合适的某一期进行碳权交易,即选择能够使得碳价与碳权持有成本总和最小的时期购碳;选择能够使得碳价与碳权持有成本总和最大的时期卖碳。
[Abstract]:Global warming has become a widespread concern in the world. In order to achieve the emission reduction targets, China has, on the one hand, introduced mandatory emission reduction laws and regulations; on the other hand, it has actively promoted the construction of a carbon trading market. Under the total volume control and trading mechanism, China's manufacturing enterprises will face more serious challenges. Enterprises should consider how to balance economic and environmental benefits, how to adjust production plans, and how to reduce emissions. The cost of carbon resource allocation is minimized. These studies are of great significance to both the enterprise and the government. Based on this background, this paper constructs a multi-cycle joint decision-making model of carbon trading and emission reduction. The main innovation and contribution of this paper is to treat self-purification emission reduction projects as discrete decision variables in the modeling process, which is different from other self-purification projects that produce fixed emission reductions. The effect of self-purification project is the reduction of carbon emissions per unit of production, which can be continued, and the development and maturity of self-purification technology can reduce the cost of self-purification. If an enterprise chooses not to sell its carbon rights in the trading market when it makes the decision to allocate carbon resources, it is equivalent to a backlog of liquidity that cannot be used for other investments. In this paper, taking the chemical industry data as an example, the deterministic carbon price model is solved by using Lingo software, and the optimal decision combination of the enterprise under the random carbon price is obtained by VBA programming simulation experiment. Through the analysis of the results, the following conclusions are drawn: the government should reasonably set the allocated carbon quota according to the characteristics of different industries, such as total carbon emission, self-purification technology and self-purification cost. If the carbon quota is too much, the incentive of self-purification emission reduction will be weakened, and if the carbon quota is too little, it will bring huge pressure to the enterprise, which is not conducive to the development of the enterprise; the enterprise should pay attention to the development of self-purification technology, when the technology matures faster, The reduction of carbon purchase and carbon right holding cost brought by early self-purification is larger than the increase of self-purification cost, and enterprises should pay attention to the emission reduction effect of different self-purification technologies. In deciding what kind of self-purification project to implement, we should consider the cost of self-purification, the effect of emission reduction and so on to achieve the goal of cost minimization; enterprises holding carbon rights need to bear the corresponding opportunity cost, should take into account their total emissions, carbon price and other factors, To select a suitable period for carbon trading is to choose the period in which the sum of carbon price and carbon right holding cost is the minimum; to choose the period when carbon price and carbon right holding cost sum is the greatest.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.7;X196

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