中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 17:06

本文关键词： 金属矿产消费强度回收潜力预测　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从中国金属资源安全的角度来看,优化战略性金属矿产的供应结构,降低一次矿产的对外依存度,通过合理的政策导向有效地增加中国城市矿产开发效率,挖掘废旧金属的回收和利用潜力,是实现矿产资源安全保障的重要前提。本文以铁、铜、铝等三种金属矿产为例,采用美国、英国、法国、德国、日本等五个工业化国家及中国1949—2015年的面板数据,通过构建消费强度、回收密度和寿命分布函数分析了工业化五国金属消费和报废金属回收的历史规律,预测了2016—2030年中国三种金属消费和报废回收的变化趋势。结果显示:(1)五个工业化国家铁、铜、铝金属的消费强度经历了快速上升、平台缓降和较快下降的过程,而回收密度则经历了缓慢上升、较快增长和快速增长的三个阶段,在消费强度与回收密度的第三阶段呈现"脱钩"特征;(2)中国铁、铜、铝三种金属的消费强度大幅增加主要是集中在2000年以后,2015年我国铁、铜、铝的消费强度分别为540 kg/人、8 kg/人和23 kg/人,回收密度分别只有100kg/人、0.5 kg/人和3 kg/人,除铁、铝的消费强度进入平台下降期外,铜消费强度和三种金属回收密度仍处于增长的第一阶段;(3)预计2030年,中国铁、铜、铝的消费强度将分别为450 kg/人、9 kg/人和20 kg/人,仍处在平台缓慢下降阶段,回收密度将分别增加到220kg/人、3 kg/人和5 kg/人,回收密度与消费强度比例分别达到49%、33%和25%。通过对比可知,中国未来社会报废金属回收潜力巨大,如果能加以有效政策引导,加快回收利用,可大大缓解中国战略性金属的安全保障压力。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the safety of China's metal resources, we should optimize the supply structure of strategic metal minerals, reduce the external dependence of primary minerals, and effectively increase the efficiency of urban mineral development in China through reasonable policy guidance. It is an important prerequisite to realize the safety and security of mineral resources to excavate the potential recovery and utilization of scrap metals. In this paper, three kinds of metal minerals, such as iron, copper and aluminum, are taken as examples, using the United States, Britain, France, Germany, etc. The panel data of Japan and other five industrialized countries and China from 1949 to 2015 analyzed the historical law of metal consumption and scrap metal recovery in five industrialized countries by constructing consumption intensity, recycling density and life distribution function. The trends of consumption and scrap recovery of three metals in China from 2016 to 2030 are forecasted. The results show that the consumption intensity of iron, copper and aluminum in the five industrialized countries has experienced a rapid increase, a slow decline in platform and a relatively rapid decrease in the consumption intensity of iron, copper and aluminum. On the other hand, the recycling density has experienced three stages of slow increase, relatively rapid growth and rapid growth. In the third stage of consumption intensity and recycling density, there is a "decoupling" feature in China's iron, copper, copper, iron, copper, copper, iron, copper, copper, copper, copper, copper, copper, copper, copper, In 2015, the consumption intensity of iron, copper and aluminum in China was 540 kg / man / person and 23 kg / person respectively, and the recovery density was only 100 kg / person / person 0.5 kg / person and 3 kg / person, respectively. The consumption intensity of aluminum has entered a period of decline, and the consumption intensity of copper and the recovery density of three metals are still in the first stage of growth.) it is estimated that in 2030, the consumption intensity of iron, copper and aluminum in China will be 450 kg / person / person and 20 kg / person, respectively. Still in the stage of slow decline of platform, the recovery density will increase to 220 kg / person / person 3 kg / person and 5 kg / person respectively, and the ratio of recovery density and consumption intensity will reach 49% and 25% respectively. If we can give effective policy guidance and speed up recycling, we can greatly ease the pressure on the safety and security of China's strategic metals.
【作者单位】：成都理工大学管理科学学院;中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所;
【基金】：成都理工大学优秀科研团队项目(批准号:KYTD201406) 四川省社会科学高水平研究团队“资源环境战略”(批准号:SCKT201506) 四川矿产资源研究中心开放基金项目(批准号:SCKCZY-2016YB01) 四川省社科规划基地项目“四川省矿产资源型城市可持续发展的关键问题研究”(批准号:SC16E006) 中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中国铁铜铝等资源循环调查评价”(批准号:121201103000150015)
【分类号】：F426.1

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