山东省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 07:01

  本文选题：工业化　切入点：城镇化　出处：《华东经济管理》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章选取山东省17地市2002-2014年面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数法对农业全要素生产率进行测算并以其作为表示农业现代化的指标,运用面板向量自回归模型估计了工业化、城镇化和农业现代化(简称"三化")的动态关系。研究表明:城镇化和工业化之间存在显著的相互促进作用,而农业现代化与两者(城镇化和工业化)之间不存在显著的关系;城镇化与工业化互为格兰杰因果关系,农业现代化与两者均不存在格兰杰因果关系;工业化和城镇化两者与农业现代化互动关系较弱导致农业现代化的发展滞后。在此基础上提出了推进山东省"三化"同步发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the panel data from 2002 to 2014 in 17 cities of Shandong Province, uses DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the agricultural total factor productivity and takes it as the indicator to represent the agricultural modernization, and estimates industrialization by using the panel vector autoregressive model. The dynamic relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization (abbreviated as "three modernizations"). The study shows that there is a significant mutual promotion between urbanization and industrialization, but there is no significant relationship between agricultural modernization and both (urbanization and industrialization); Urbanization and industrialization are Granger causality, agricultural modernization and both do not exist Granger causality; The weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization leads to the lagging of the development of agricultural modernization. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for promoting the simultaneous development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.
【作者单位】： 山东理工大学商学院;
【基金】：国家软科学研究计划项目(2012GXS4D090) 国家自然科学基金项目(71371112) 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2012GM020)
【分类号】：F299.27;F327;F427
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本文编号：1559994