成品油配送量预测问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 12:45

本文选题：一次指数平滑　切入点：时间序列分析　出处：《中国市场》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：根据加油站提供的销量数据,通过建立指数平滑模型来对第二天的销量进行预测。文章分析得出成品油在一段时间内的价格保持不变,但依据全年的数据考虑到价格对销量的牛鞭效应,文章从时间序列角度进行考虑,根据价格的变化将整个时期分为若干个时间段,每个时间段计算出成品油对应的平均销量,根据已知时间段的平均销量来预测未来一周的平均销量。将此平均销量作为未来一周每天的观测值并结合得出的第二天预测量,计算接下来每天的预测量。预测出的销售量并不一定就是配送量,还要考虑到加油站的期初期末库存、安全库存。观察成品油每天配送量的数据,可以看出配送量有一定规律可循,即配送量为固定的一组数字中的一个。根据这个发现,从这组数字中找出在取值范围内的最小值作为配送量,既保证了库存持有成本的最低,又保证了加油站经销油品不断货。
[Abstract]:Based on the sales data provided by the gas station, an exponential smoothing model is established to forecast the sales volume of the next day. However, considering the bullwhip effect of price on sales volume according to the data of the whole year, this paper considers the time series, divides the whole period into several time periods according to the change of price, and calculates the average sales volume corresponding to the oil products in each time period. Predict the average sales for the next week based on the average sales over a given period of time. Take this average as a daily observation for the next week and combine it with the forecast for the next day. Calculate the daily forecast for the next day. The predicted sales volume is not necessarily the distribution volume, but also takes into account the beginning and end of the gas station inventory, safety inventory. It can be seen that there are certain rules to follow, that is, the quantity of distribution is one of a set of fixed numbers. According to this finding, finding out the minimum value within the range of values as the distribution quantity from this group of figures ensures the lowest cost of inventory holding. It also ensures that the gas station distributes the oil continuously.
【作者单位】：北京物资学院;
【分类号】：F426.22;F274

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