中国石油企业中亚地区投资风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 10:15

本文选题：中亚　切入点：投资风险　出处：《西安石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”是“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的简称,也是我国全方位对外开放的新战略构想。随着“一带一路”伟大战略的持续推进,我国石油企业在中亚地区的投资将进一步加强,但由于中亚地区经济基础薄弱、经济政策频繁变动、汇率不稳、社会波动起伏较大,加之中亚国家领导人年龄普遍偏大,政局存在很大的不稳定性,因此,我国石油企业对中亚地区的油气资源投资在迎来机遇的同时,也会面临很大的风险。在风险识别过程中,首先对中国石油企业中亚地区投资现状进行了阐述,并指出目前中亚地区油气资源投资存在的相关问题,通过从经济政策风险、政治风险、社会文化风险和其他风险4个角度对中亚地区油气资源投资风险的系统分析,在对国内学者关于海外投资风险指标选取进行综述的基础上,运用环境分析法进行了风险识别,构建了中国石油企业中亚地区投资风险指标体系。在风险识别的基础上,运用层次分析法确定中亚地区投资风险指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法对中亚地区投资风险因素的影响程度和风险大小进行量化分析,从而建立了中国石油企业中亚地区投资风险模糊综合评价模型,并进行了实证分析。最后有针对性地对中亚地区投资的经济政策风险、政治风险、社会文化风险和其他风险提出了相应的应对措施。建议我国石油企业应树立风险防范意识,综合运用各种措施积极主动地应对中亚地区投资风险。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road" is the abbreviation of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Sea Silk Road" in 21th century. It is also a new strategic concept for China's all-around opening to the outside world. The investment of Chinese oil enterprises in Central Asia will be further strengthened. However, due to the weak economic base, frequent changes in economic policies, unstable exchange rates, large social fluctuations in Central Asia, and the fact that the leaders of Central Asian countries are generally older, There is great instability in the political situation. Therefore, the petroleum enterprises of our country will face great risks in the process of risk identification when they welcome the opportunity to invest in the oil and gas resources in Central Asia. First of all, this paper expounds the present investment situation of Chinese oil and gas enterprises in Central Asia, and points out the problems existing in the investment of oil and gas resources in Central Asia. Through the analysis of economic policy risk and political risk, This paper systematically analyzes the investment risk of oil and gas resources in Central Asia from four angles of social and cultural risk and other risks. On the basis of summarizing the selection of overseas investment risk index by domestic scholars, the paper uses the environmental analysis method to identify the risk. This paper constructs the index system of investment risk in Central Asia of Chinese petroleum enterprises. On the basis of risk identification, the weight of investment risk index in Central Asia is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the quantitative analysis of the degree and magnitude of investment risk factors in Central Asia, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of investment risk of Chinese petroleum enterprises in Central Asia is established. Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures to the economic policy risk, political risk, social and cultural risk and other risks of investment in Central Asia, and suggests that China's oil enterprises should set up the awareness of risk prevention. Comprehensive use of various measures to actively deal with investment risks in Central Asia.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22

【相似文献】