经济新常态下内蒙古电力需求及电力工业发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 08:24

本文选题：经济新常态　切入点：电力需求　出处：《内蒙古大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力工业是国民经济的基础产业和先行产业,并支撑着其他产业的持续发展。近年来,内蒙古电力工业积极落实国家能源战略,加快调整优化能源结构,实现了电力工业持续快速发展,不仅对地区煤炭资源的就地转化增值、支撑内蒙古冶金、化工等优势特色产业发展,以及内蒙古经济社会的持续发展发挥了重大作用,同时在支持国家经济社会发展上也发挥了重要作用;随着我国进入经济新常态时期,内蒙古电力工业发展也面临着新的挑战。本文首先对国内外关于电力工业问题的研究从电力工业发展、电力与经济增长关系、电力需求预测、电力体制改革和内蒙古电力工业发展研究进行文献综述;并对规制与竞争理论和沉没成本等相关理论进行了梳理。其次在提出电力工业相关概念及界定的基础上,从电力装机、发电量、外送电量、电网建设和电力需求等方面对内蒙古电力工业发展现状进行分析,认为内蒙古电力工业发展面临着"窝电"现象日益严重、弃风弃光问题严峻、市场需求减少、产能过剩凸显、自备电厂与公用电厂矛盾加大和电力基础设施不完善等问题;并通过分析经济新常态下中国电力市场供给侧和需求侧面临的形势和内蒙古电力供需状况,运用回归分析预测法和灰色模型预测法对内蒙古未来五年电力供给和需求进行了预测。最后结合内蒙古经济社会发展实际,分析制约内蒙古电力工业发展的因素,提出积极实施重大电源点建设项目、扩大需求促进电力工业可持续发展、加快完善电力基础设施、大力推进电力科技创新和加强协调配合严格电力监管等促进内蒙古电力工业发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the basic and leading industry of the national economy and supports the sustainable development of other industries. In recent years, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Industry has actively implemented the national energy strategy and accelerated the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure. The sustained and rapid development of the electric power industry has not only played an important role in the local transformation and appreciation of the regional coal resources, in supporting the development of the advantages and characteristics of metallurgy and chemical industry in Inner Mongolia, but also in the sustained economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. At the same time, it has also played an important role in supporting the country's economic and social development. The development of power industry in Inner Mongolia is also facing new challenges. Firstly, this paper studies the problems of power industry at home and abroad, including the development of power industry, the relationship between electricity and economic growth, and the forecast of power demand. The reform of power system and the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are reviewed, and the theories of regulation and competition, sunk cost and other related theories are summarized. Secondly, based on the concept and definition of electric power industry, the paper puts forward the theory of electric power installation. This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry from the aspects of power generation, outgoing power supply, power grid construction and power demand, and considers that the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry is facing the increasingly serious phenomenon of "power generation", and the problem of abandoning wind and abandoning light is serious. The market demand is reduced, the overcapacity is prominent, the contradiction between the self-provided power plant and the utility power plant is increased, and the power infrastructure is not perfect. And through the analysis of the situation facing the supply and demand side of China's electricity market under the new normal state of economy and the supply and demand situation of power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia, The forecast method of regression analysis and grey model is used to forecast the power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia in the next five years. Finally, the factors restricting the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are analyzed in light of the actual economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. It is proposed to actively implement major power point construction projects, expand demand and promote the sustainable development of the power industry, speed up the improvement of power infrastructure, The countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are put forward, such as promoting innovation of electric power science and technology and strengthening coordination, coordination and strict supervision of electric power.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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