A市卷烟产品市场需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 08:37

本文选题：卷烟产品　切入点：市场　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,我国经济发展进入了“新常态”,我国烟草产业的发展也面临“增长速度回落、工商库存增加、结构空间变窄、需求拐点逼近”四大难题,因此,基于市场的真实需求,推进专卖体制下卷烟营销市场化取向改革,促进行业在新常态下稳定健康发展,是当前有效破解难题、应对挑战的重要路径,而推行市场化取向改革的关键和重点,在于对卷烟产品市场需求预测的研究和把握。本文以A市为例,通过对A市卷烟市场状况进行分析研究,对A市消费者进行了调研,通过调研结果选择需求预测影响因素,来对比和选择适合的需求预测模型,并运用模型预测未来两年卷烟销量,得出预测结论。科学准确的卷烟市场需求预测,不仅是确保卷烟市场需求端和供给端有效衔接的基础,也是提高卷烟商业企业自身卷烟销售、配送、仓储等日常经营效率,提升卷烟经营效益的现实需要。因此,卷烟商业企业如何在现行营销模式下,做好本辖区卷烟市场需求预测,科学预测卷烟销量,促进货源购进与市场需求的匹配度,保证卷烟市场按需供应就变得极为重要。
[Abstract]:At present, the economic development of our country has entered the "new normal", and the development of the tobacco industry in our country is faced with four major problems: "the growth rate falls back, the industrial and commercial inventory increases, the structural space becomes narrower, and the demand inflection point approaches". Therefore, based on the real demand of the market,To promote the market-oriented reform of cigarette marketing under the monopoly system, and to promote the steady and healthy development of the industry under the new normal, is an important way to solve the difficult problems and meet the challenges effectively, and the key and key point of carrying out the market-oriented reform is to carry out the market-oriented reform.It is to the cigarette product market demand forecast research and the grasp.This article takes A city as an example, through the analysis and research to A city cigarette market situation, carries on the investigation to the A city consumer, through the investigation result selects the demand forecast influence factor, compares and selects the suitable demand forecast model.The model is used to predict the cigarette sales in the next two years, and the prediction results are obtained.Scientific and accurate prediction of cigarette market demand is not only the basis to ensure the effective link between the demand and supply side of the cigarette market, but also to improve the daily management efficiency of cigarette sales, distribution, warehousing and so on.The realistic need to improve the benefit of cigarette management.Therefore, under the current marketing mode, how to make a good forecast of cigarette market demand, scientifically predict the cigarette sales volume, promote the matching degree between the source purchase and the market demand, and ensure the on-demand supply in the cigarette market becomes extremely important.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.8

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