1990—2015年世界能源时空演变特征研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 14:41

本文选题：世界能源 + 社会网络分析　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程。能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化。基于1990—2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异。(2)世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势。(3)从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成"核心-次核心-节点"的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径。(4)经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全。随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整。
[Abstract]:Energy system from energy production to energy exploitation, energy transport, and then to the end consumer or reserve the whole process of system engineering. Transportation energy among areas promoted the formation of the world energy network, with the change of time and various external factors, energy spatial pattern has undergone dramatic changes. From 1990 to 2015 195 the national energy production and consumption data and trade based on the matrix, using two factor trend chart method and social network analysis method for the analysis of world energy production, consumption and transport characteristics. The results show that: (1) the world's energy production are mainly distributed in the Middle East, Asia, the former Soviet Union, North America, South America and West Africa, crude oil. The spatial pattern of natural gas and coal are also different. (2) the world's energy consumption growth volatility, high growth and high consumption rate of regional distribution in the Asia Pacific and emerging economies, European energy consumption Slow down, North America, Japan, the Russian consumer appear negative growth trend. (3) from the world's energy transport, energy exports are concentrated in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, northwest and South America, imported energy is concentrated in the Asia Pacific and Europe and the United States; the world energy transport overall liquidity enhancement, there is fluctuation in the Middle East and North Africa local time; energy production abroad, rising to the center of the Asia Pacific and emerging economies to the center of the fastest growth; hierarchical structure of the formation of "core - core node", European status decline, Asia Pacific enhanced, the trend of diversification appears; there are 8 major approaches of energy transport. (4) economic growth, political situation. The relationship between national and energy technology development will have a significant impact on world energy space pattern, the countries have also through diversification of energy sources, bilateral and multilateral cooperation, strategic reserves of energy and new energy development to ensure its energy security. With the development of shale oil and gas technology and the popularization of new energy technology, especially the slowing down of coal consumption in the world, the future world energy spatial pattern is also going to be significantly adjusted.

【作者单位】：广东财经大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“新区开发对大城市人口流动的效用及机制研究——以广州为例”(批准号:GD15XSH01) 国家自然科学基金项目“基于城际快速交通的城市区域网络响应与机理研究:以珠江三角洲为例”(批准号:41501120) 广东省普通高校创新人才类项目“广东省人口格局调整与制度创新研究”(批准号:2015WQNCX040)
【分类号】：F416.2

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